
Daniel Flynn
Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
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Mixed Socks & Seedings Report. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/01/2025
We kickoff the day with S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final at 8;45 A.M., JOLT’s Job Openings, ISM Manufacturing Employment, Construction Spending MoM, ISM Manufacturing New Orders, ISM Manufacturing Prices, and JOLT’s Job Quits at 9:00 A.M., RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index at 9:10 A.M., Dallas Fed Services Index ans Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index at 9:30 A.M., Cotton System, Fats & Oils, and Grain Crushings at 2:00 P.M., API Energy Stocks and LMI Logistics Managers Index at 3:30 P.M.
The USDA announced on Monday that Phased re-openings for the livestock trade at US southern ports would begin as early as July 7th. The US restricted cattle movement from Mexico into the US in late 2024 following the detection of screwworm in southern Mexico. Still, the US began allowing imports under close inspection in February. The border was again closed in May as NWS detection had moved farther north into Mexico. Yesterday, the USDA announced that significant progress had been made since early May. The USDA has worked with the Mexican government to release 100 million sterile flies per week, and sent 5 teams of Animal and Plant Health Services (APHIS) staff to Mexico to monitor the Mexican response. There has been no uptick in new cases, nor a northward advance, in the last eight weeks. The port at Douglas, AZ will reopen July 7, followed by two ports in NM in the following 2 weeks Del Rio, TX will open Aug 18, and Laredo is scheduled to open on Sep 15. The announcement is expected to weigh on CME cattle/feeder trade in today’s session
Analysis of NASS’s June Stocks & Seeding Reports
The June acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks report offered mixed results. The biggest surprise was the quarterly soybean residual rate, which fell to a multi-year low and lifted June 1 soybean stocks above 1 Bil Bu. Planted US acres for corn, soybeans, and wheat were all within the range of analyst estimates. NASS and the industry seemed to agree on many data points. The next adjustment in US seeded/harvested acres comes in August as US FSA data is included. We would not be surprised if US corn/soybean harvested acres fell modestly as farmers choose to accept prevent plant in late seeded June acres. Final US crop and CRP acres were 650,000 acres larger than in the March Prospected Plantings report, and 1 Mil acres larger than the final 2024 total. US June and final acres have been in decline for decades. Urban sprawl, solar farms, and acres being taken out of production due to acute water shortages have decreased US total crop acres by nearly 40 million acres since 1985. At some point, productive US farmland should become a national treasure, as the ongoing seeding losses cannot persist. USDA’s June corn stocks data was neutral with no meaningful net change expected to ARC’s July balance sheets. A ultra bearish scenario was avoided as NASS trimmed US planted area 100,000 acres to 95.2 Mil. However, ARC’s long term corn price theory centers on oversupply (supply bear market) amid record large Brazilian and US production, and as South American weather in autumn/winter 2025/26 will be near normal given the absence of La Nina or El Nino. The cash market must sort out the massive physical supply between August and November. Downside price targets of $3.50-$3.75 basis December futures are in play.
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Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374