Super-Size Me. The Energy Report 06/30/2025

 Get Super-sized! Or Super Hyped! It seems that unnamed OPEC sources now must use very colorful language to get attention from the marketplace because so many times these leaked stories turn out not to be true.

Friday the oil market was rallying on reports that President Trump was reversing his position and now not considering lifting sanctions on Iran’s oil. Yet almost like magic, the markets sold off hard after reports from 2 very mysterious unnamed OPEC sources who spoke of course on the condition of staying totally anonymous said that not only are  they familiar with OPEC+ discussions but that they were considering what they called a headline grabbing “super-sized” production increase. Or some might say a super-hyped production increase. Not just any production increase, mind you, but a super- sized production increase!

Terms like super and size and that type of jargon must be very precise when deciding on an oil production increase to balance or imbalance the global petroleum market. In must be a very technical term that only the OPEC plus cartel members really get. Other terms that OPEC may use include phrases such as “I’m loving it,” “finger-licking good,” “have it your way,” and “think outside the bun.”

What we do know is that last month OPEC increased its production by 411,000 barrels per day. However, this increase was partially offset by other countries that raised their production to compensate for prior overproduction. And according to these OPEC sources familiar with the matter, OPEC plans to do the same thing again at their July 6th meeting. Reuters reported that if OPEC+ agrees to the increase, total supply will rise by 1.78 million bpd this year, about 1.5% of global demand.

OPEC acknowledges that the group hasn’t met agreed volumes due to some members compensating for previous overproduction and others needing more time to restore output. OPEC+ had complied with several years of cuts totaling over 5 million bpd. Starting in April, eight members began reversing the latest cut of 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts and increased production in May, June, and July.

These secretive unnamed sources claim that OPEC and its allies, including Russia (collectively known as OPEC+), aim to regain market share during production cuts. These claims, which suggest rival producers like the United States increased output, have been strongly denied by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that OPEC+ projects rising global demand, especially in the summer, suggesting the group may continue with production increases but that is a far cry from the claims that they were fighting to get back market share. It seems that they’re trying to meet growing demand.

OPEC Plus, known as the group of eight, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Algeria, will meet on July 6. OPEC and Saudi authorities did not respond to requests for comment. Two sources familiar with OPEC+ discussions mentioned a possible over 411,000 bpd increase for August, though not all members may support it.

Reuters says that one complicating factor for the negotiations is the possibility of increased supply from Iran following the Israel-Iran ceasefire. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that while the U.S. continues its maximum pressure campaign on Iran, there might be a potential relaxation in enforcement to assist the country in its rebuilding efforts.

And while the market fretted about production increases, they also predict about the trade war with Canada. The stock market sold off late Friday after President Trump said that he would stop all trade negotiations with Canada after an unfair tax that targeted U.S. companies. Specifically of course Canadian business leaders were scratching their head telling Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to relent and eventually common sense reigned and he did.

Reuters reported that Canada scrapped its digital services tax targeting U.S. technology firms just hours before it was due to take effect on Monday, in a bid to advance stalled trade negotiations with the U.S.. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump will resume trade negotiations in order to agree on a deal by July 21, Canada’s finance ministry said in a statement late on Sunday.

“Thank you Canada for removing your Digital Services Tax which was intended to stifle American innovation and would have been a deal breaker for any trade deal with America,” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick responded in a post on X.

Wall Street futures hit record highs on Monday morning as sentiment in the markets rose amid optimism over U.S. trade negotiations with key partners, including Canada.

The prevailing optimism in the stock market is projected to result in increased demand for oil. Consequently, we expect today’s decline in oil prices to be relatively contained. As we approach the best of the summer season and move towards its conclusion, we advise adopting bullish strategies and positioning investments accordingly.

Natural gas is pulling back despite the fact that we’ve seen some very hot temperatures in the US. OIL Price reports that, “Rising demand for natural gas in the United States and a supportive administration are prompting U.S. natural gas producers and pipeline giants to begin to actively consider proposing new pipelines to bring more gas supply from America’s top gas-producing region, Appalachia, to consumers. “We are actively evaluating opportunities to expand infrastructure,” Amy Rogers, a spokeswoman for one of the top U.S. natural gas producers, EQT, told Reuters. “Enhancing pipeline capacity is essential to unlocking Appalachian supply,” Rogers added. EQT’s chief executive officer, Toby Rice, said in West Virginia as early as in March that more natural gas pipelines are coming in the Appalachia region, to meet growing demand from data centers and coal retirements.

Still weather is key in the short term. Fox Weather is reporting that new area to watch for possible tropical development emerged off the Southeast coast of the U.S. on Sunday and could impact Fourth of July holiday travel for millions of Americans across the region this weekend.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has announced that a frontal boundary is anticipated to stall and weaken off the Southeast coast later this week. Subsequently, an area of low pressure may develop from the weakening front by this weekend, either off the southeastern U.S. coast, over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. So it’s very important to download the Fox Weather app to keep up with the latest developments.

Stay tuned to the Fox Business Network because of they are the only network in the world that’s invested in you.

Now is the time to finally get signed up for my Daily Trade Levels and to open your futures trading account at this very important time in market history. We are seeing some very interesting developments Call Phil Flynn at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.