Friday finally saw some strength across the grain complex (mostly), as futures were taking back pressure from earlier in the week. Cattle also saw a rather strong session, as cotton continued its climb. Of course, some of that we can blame on profit taking ahead of the weekend, not to mention the much anticipated USDA reports on Monday. But was the pop ahead of the July 4th week a little premature? Some of that will likely be answered on Monday, with the answers hidden behind USDA’s data with the trade still monitoring weather conditions ahead of the 3-day weekend. There is sure to be fireworks, but we’ll have to see if they make show of it or explode before takeoff.
Corn bears took control of the market this week, exploring new contract lows, with July down 11 ¼ cents and December falling 14 ¼. Monday’s Crop Progress pegged the US corn crop at 4% silking as of June 22, 1 point behind the 5-year average. Ratings slipped back 2% to 70% good to excellent, as the Brugler500 index was 3 points lower to 376. EIA’s weekly report indicated ethanol production dropping another 28,000 barrels per day from the week prior to 1.081 million bpd in the week of 6/20. Stocks of ethanol were up 284,000 barrels to 24.404 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings falling back to 741,226 MT for the week that ended on June 19. That brought the total export commitments to 67.57 MMT, which is 99% of the new USDA full-year export forecast, with the 5-year average pace for this week at 100%. New crop sales totaled 305,506 MT. CFTC showed spec funds in corn slicing back 2,506 contracts from their net short as of June 24 to 182,282 contracts.
The wheat gave back all of last week’s gains, with losses across the three markets. Chicago SRW futures fell back 43 cents this week, with KC HRW down 47 1/4 cents. MPLS futures were 30 ¾ cent in the red on the week. Crop Progress data from Monday showed the US spring wheat crop at 17% head. Ratings fell back 3% to 54% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 341, down 11 points. Winter wheat harvest continues to lag behind, at just 19% complete by last Sunday, vs. 28% on average. Condition ratings were tallied at 49% good/excellent, down 3%, with the Brugler500 index down 4 points to 330. Stats Canada showed an increase in Canadian wheat acres this year by 1% to 26.925 million acres, mainly due to durum and winter wheat, as spring wheat was down 0.7%. The weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2025/26 business at just 255,208 MT. That took total commitments to 6.61 MMT, which is 29% of USDA’s export estimate and ahead of the 28% average pace. Weekly CFTC data indicated spec traders in Chicago wheat futures and options net short 64,667 contracts as of Tuesday, a reduction of 16,686 contracts during that week. In Kansas City wheat, managed money trimmed 18,689 contracts from their net short to 43,462 contracts by June 24th.
Soybeans felt pressure from all around this week, pressuring July 40 ¼ cents lower, as November was down 36 cents. July soybean meal was down $13/ton on the week, with July bean oil back down 202 points. USDA’s Crop Progress report indicated 96% of the US soybean crop planted by 6/22, behind the 5-year average pace, with emergence at 90% and 8% blooming. Condition ratings were steady this week at 62% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index at 367. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings pushing to a 14-week high at 402,931 MT in the week of June 19. That brought accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 49.47 MMT. That is 98% of USDA’s export projection for the marketing year, 4 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. New crop business picked up in that week to 156,153 MT. Commitment of Traders data pegged managed money cutting back 35,717 contracts from their net long in soybeans to 23,448 contracts by Tuesday.
Live cattle clawed some gains back this week, with August up $3.475 (1.66%). The cash market saw another pullback this week, with southern sales mainly at $223-225, down $3-5, with northern action down $3-6 at $230-233. Feeders also saw a bounce this week, with August rallying $5.45, mainly on the Friday move. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up 98 cents week/week to $311.97. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw some renewed strength this week. Choice was up $6.01 (1.5%) to $396.51, while Select was $6 (1.6%) higher to $382.95. Weekly beef production was down just 0.4% from last week at 483.6 million lbs this week, though that was a 5.6% decline from last year. Year to date beef production is now down 3.2%, as slaughter is 6.4% lower. Beef stocks at the end of May were tallied at 407.786 million lbs, which was down 2.73% from last month and 1.18% below last year. Export Sales data showed 14,075 MT of beef sold in the week of June 19 for 2025 shipment. Exports were tallied at a 3-week low of 12,597 MT. Commitment of Traders data indicated spec funds in live cattle futures and options cutting 2,357 contracts from their net long position to 132,893 contracts by Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures were net long 35,506 contracts by 6/24, a reduction of 352 on the week.
Hogs held on to the recent string of weekly gains, with July up 47 cents this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $4.30 this week at 111.89 as of June 25. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout slipped back $4.68 on the week (3.8%) to $117.46/cwt. Just the rib was higher on the week. Pork production was up 2.1% from the week prior and 1.2% above the same week a year ago at 517.5 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 1.6%, as slaughter is 2.0% lower. Hogs & Pigs data from NASS showed a 0.33% increase in all hog inventory at the beginning of June to 75.137 million head. Market hogs were up 0.4%, with hogs kept for breeding down 0.48%. Cold Storage data showed pork stocks on May 31 at 450.983 million lbs, a 21 year low for the month and down 1.14% from the end of April. USDA’s Export Sales report showed 51,432 MT of pork sold for 2025 in the week ending on June 19. Shipments were the largest for the calendar year at 39,893 MT. CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report showed managed money in lean hog futures and options adding 4,442 contracts to their new record net long position of 134,292 contracts.
Cotton bulls were in a better mood this week, with July up 348 cents and December climbing 262 cents. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 92% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, behind the 95% pace from the 5-year average, with 5% setting bolls. Condition ratings were 47% good/excellent, down 1, or 327 on the Brugler500 index, down 1 point on the week. Export Sales data showed just 27,342 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on June 19, with 64,664 RB fr 2025/26. Shipments dropped to a multi month low of 184,521 RB. Upland cotton commitments are 11.696 million RB, 109% of the USDA export forecast and behind the 115% average pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 15 points higher this week, to 54.18 cents/lb. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed cotton spec traders cutting back 2,946 contracts from their net short position as of Tuesday to 48,085 contracts by June 24th.
Market Watch
Next week may be short but it will likely start with some fireworks. The normal Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports will be out on Monday, but most of the attention will be focused on the Annual June Acreage report, as well as the quarterly Grain Stocks reports. Monday is also first notice day for July grain futures and the last trading day for June live cattle. Tuesday will kick off July with the monthly Grains Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems reports. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released on Wednesday per normal. Thursday morning will see the release of the Export Sales report, as well as the monthly Census trade data. Thursday is also expiration day for July live cattle serial options. The markets and government will be closed on Friday for Independence Day, giving some a much needed 3-day weekend.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans had a nasty week. We got within 1 ½ cents from the Feb high ($10.75 ¾), which may be perceived as a double top. That followed up with a key reversal and stochastics sell signal. The latter are still bearish and not oversold. The one bright spot for the bulls is the 50% Fib retracement support at $10.15 ½ held. This Friday also had a key reversal of its own, this time to the upside. We’ll have to wait to see if the USDA is generous enough to allow for some follow through on Monday. The only downside is the oscillators are still not oversold, giving less of a promising sign for a rally on Monday. We’ll need some fuel for that.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Premature Detonation. Ag Marketing Report 06/30/2025
Friday finally saw some strength across the grain complex (mostly), as futures were taking back pressure from earlier in the week. Cattle also saw a rather strong session, as cotton continued its climb. Of course, some of that we can blame on profit taking ahead of the weekend, not to mention the much anticipated USDA reports on Monday. But was the pop ahead of the July 4th week a little premature? Some of that will likely be answered on Monday, with the answers hidden behind USDA’s data with the trade still monitoring weather conditions ahead of the 3-day weekend. There is sure to be fireworks, but we’ll have to see if they make show of it or explode before takeoff.
Corn bears took control of the market this week, exploring new contract lows, with July down 11 ¼ cents and December falling 14 ¼. Monday’s Crop Progress pegged the US corn crop at 4% silking as of June 22, 1 point behind the 5-year average. Ratings slipped back 2% to 70% good to excellent, as the Brugler500 index was 3 points lower to 376. EIA’s weekly report indicated ethanol production dropping another 28,000 barrels per day from the week prior to 1.081 million bpd in the week of 6/20. Stocks of ethanol were up 284,000 barrels to 24.404 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings falling back to 741,226 MT for the week that ended on June 19. That brought the total export commitments to 67.57 MMT, which is 99% of the new USDA full-year export forecast, with the 5-year average pace for this week at 100%. New crop sales totaled 305,506 MT. CFTC showed spec funds in corn slicing back 2,506 contracts from their net short as of June 24 to 182,282 contracts.
The wheat gave back all of last week’s gains, with losses across the three markets. Chicago SRW futures fell back 43 cents this week, with KC HRW down 47 1/4 cents. MPLS futures were 30 ¾ cent in the red on the week. Crop Progress data from Monday showed the US spring wheat crop at 17% head. Ratings fell back 3% to 54% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 341, down 11 points. Winter wheat harvest continues to lag behind, at just 19% complete by last Sunday, vs. 28% on average. Condition ratings were tallied at 49% good/excellent, down 3%, with the Brugler500 index down 4 points to 330. Stats Canada showed an increase in Canadian wheat acres this year by 1% to 26.925 million acres, mainly due to durum and winter wheat, as spring wheat was down 0.7%. The weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2025/26 business at just 255,208 MT. That took total commitments to 6.61 MMT, which is 29% of USDA’s export estimate and ahead of the 28% average pace. Weekly CFTC data indicated spec traders in Chicago wheat futures and options net short 64,667 contracts as of Tuesday, a reduction of 16,686 contracts during that week. In Kansas City wheat, managed money trimmed 18,689 contracts from their net short to 43,462 contracts by June 24th.
Soybeans felt pressure from all around this week, pressuring July 40 ¼ cents lower, as November was down 36 cents. July soybean meal was down $13/ton on the week, with July bean oil back down 202 points. USDA’s Crop Progress report indicated 96% of the US soybean crop planted by 6/22, behind the 5-year average pace, with emergence at 90% and 8% blooming. Condition ratings were steady this week at 62% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index at 367. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings pushing to a 14-week high at 402,931 MT in the week of June 19. That brought accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 49.47 MMT. That is 98% of USDA’s export projection for the marketing year, 4 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. New crop business picked up in that week to 156,153 MT. Commitment of Traders data pegged managed money cutting back 35,717 contracts from their net long in soybeans to 23,448 contracts by Tuesday.
Live cattle clawed some gains back this week, with August up $3.475 (1.66%). The cash market saw another pullback this week, with southern sales mainly at $223-225, down $3-5, with northern action down $3-6 at $230-233. Feeders also saw a bounce this week, with August rallying $5.45, mainly on the Friday move. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up 98 cents week/week to $311.97. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw some renewed strength this week. Choice was up $6.01 (1.5%) to $396.51, while Select was $6 (1.6%) higher to $382.95. Weekly beef production was down just 0.4% from last week at 483.6 million lbs this week, though that was a 5.6% decline from last year. Year to date beef production is now down 3.2%, as slaughter is 6.4% lower. Beef stocks at the end of May were tallied at 407.786 million lbs, which was down 2.73% from last month and 1.18% below last year. Export Sales data showed 14,075 MT of beef sold in the week of June 19 for 2025 shipment. Exports were tallied at a 3-week low of 12,597 MT. Commitment of Traders data indicated spec funds in live cattle futures and options cutting 2,357 contracts from their net long position to 132,893 contracts by Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures were net long 35,506 contracts by 6/24, a reduction of 352 on the week.
Hogs held on to the recent string of weekly gains, with July up 47 cents this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $4.30 this week at 111.89 as of June 25. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout slipped back $4.68 on the week (3.8%) to $117.46/cwt. Just the rib was higher on the week. Pork production was up 2.1% from the week prior and 1.2% above the same week a year ago at 517.5 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 1.6%, as slaughter is 2.0% lower. Hogs & Pigs data from NASS showed a 0.33% increase in all hog inventory at the beginning of June to 75.137 million head. Market hogs were up 0.4%, with hogs kept for breeding down 0.48%. Cold Storage data showed pork stocks on May 31 at 450.983 million lbs, a 21 year low for the month and down 1.14% from the end of April. USDA’s Export Sales report showed 51,432 MT of pork sold for 2025 in the week ending on June 19. Shipments were the largest for the calendar year at 39,893 MT. CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report showed managed money in lean hog futures and options adding 4,442 contracts to their new record net long position of 134,292 contracts.
Cotton bulls were in a better mood this week, with July up 348 cents and December climbing 262 cents. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 92% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, behind the 95% pace from the 5-year average, with 5% setting bolls. Condition ratings were 47% good/excellent, down 1, or 327 on the Brugler500 index, down 1 point on the week. Export Sales data showed just 27,342 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on June 19, with 64,664 RB fr 2025/26. Shipments dropped to a multi month low of 184,521 RB. Upland cotton commitments are 11.696 million RB, 109% of the USDA export forecast and behind the 115% average pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 15 points higher this week, to 54.18 cents/lb. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed cotton spec traders cutting back 2,946 contracts from their net short position as of Tuesday to 48,085 contracts by June 24th.
Market Watch
Next week may be short but it will likely start with some fireworks. The normal Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports will be out on Monday, but most of the attention will be focused on the Annual June Acreage report, as well as the quarterly Grain Stocks reports. Monday is also first notice day for July grain futures and the last trading day for June live cattle. Tuesday will kick off July with the monthly Grains Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems reports. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released on Wednesday per normal. Thursday morning will see the release of the Export Sales report, as well as the monthly Census trade data. Thursday is also expiration day for July live cattle serial options. The markets and government will be closed on Friday for Independence Day, giving some a much needed 3-day weekend.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans had a nasty week. We got within 1 ½ cents from the Feb high ($10.75 ¾), which may be perceived as a double top. That followed up with a key reversal and stochastics sell signal. The latter are still bearish and not oversold. The one bright spot for the bulls is the 50% Fib retracement support at $10.15 ½ held. This Friday also had a key reversal of its own, this time to the upside. We’ll have to wait to see if the USDA is generous enough to allow for some follow through on Monday. The only downside is the oscillators are still not oversold, giving less of a promising sign for a rally on Monday. We’ll need some fuel for that.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.