Peace On March. The Energy Report 06/27/2025

The Trump Administration appears to be making strides toward ending Israel’s conflict with Hamas in Gaza which would be another major victory for President Trump’s foreign policy. It is also another reason to lower insurance rates for oil tankers and overall risk premium in general.

Oil prices reduced its gains yesterday after it was reported by the Jerusalem Post and others that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel might significantly expand its normalization agreements with Middle Eastern countries.

This statement followed a report about his and President Trump’s vision to end the Gaza war within two weeks and secure peace deals with Arab states. “We fought valiantly against Iran — and achieved a great victory,” Netanyahu said. “This victory opens up an opportunity for a dramatic expansion of the peace agreements. We are working hard on this.” “Along with the release of our hostages and the defeat of Hamas,” he continued, “there is a window of opportunity here that must not be missed. Not even a single day can be wasted.”

Netanyahu and Trump have agreed to swiftly end the Gaza conflict and expand the Abraham Accords after the US attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities. Signed in September 2020, the Abraham Accords normalized Israel’s relations with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco. Netanyahu stressed the urgency of releasing hostages and defeating Hamas.

This comes as OPEC is meeting July 6th and signaling that they may increase production. The latest news that we’re hearing is that Russian vice minister and oil guide Alexander Novak said that OPEC may, and I stress the word that may, just may talk, about a production increase on July 6. Or they may talk about football or recent movies.

Another slightly bearish story came out of Reuters. Reuters is reporting the U.S. will not complete scheduled deliveries of crude oil into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve until the end of the year due to maintenance, as much as seven months behind schedule, the Department of Energy said on Thursday.

The Biden administration scheduled 15.8 million barrels of deliveries to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) from January through May. So far this year, 8.8 million barrels have been delivered to the reserve. The Biden administration misused the reserve causing damage to the infrastructure, so the taxpayers are going to have to pay the price for the repairs. Way to go, Joe.

With the move on the inflation data, we’re getting mixed signals from fed governors about an interest rate cut as early as July. Today’s PCE price inflator should go a long way towards answering that question. Now the futures seem to be betting on a September cut. A very weak inflation number could actually push the needle towards July. Increased

odds of a rate cut would increase demand expectations for oil and be supportive.

Could this be a capitulation injection? Natural gas got blindsided with a much higher than expected 96bcf injection  into storage even though we’ve seen scorching temperatures in many parts of the country. Still supplies are 196 Bcf less than last year but still 179 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,719 Bcf. The total working gas stands at 2,898 Bcf, aligning with the historical range observed over the past five years. Yet it may be hotter than the 5-year average and demand for LNG exports will break records. Yet at the end of the day if we stay hot we will see storage evaporate.

We also may have to watch the Tropics as Fox Weather warns us. Fox Weather reports that the Caribbean is being monitored for potential tropical development ahead of the Fourth of July holiday. The National Hurricane Center is observing an area of disturbed weather over Central America, which is anticipated to temporarily move over the Bay of Campeche this weekend.

Fox Weather reports that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring disturbed weather over Central America, which will briefly move over the Bay of Campeche this weekend. Though chances of tropical development are low, showers and thunderstorms are expected to bring much-needed rain to drought-affected Mexico. Despite the Bay’s warm sea surface temperatures and favorable terrain for rapid cyclone formation, forecast models and the Madden-Julian Oscillation phase suggest conditions will inhibit significant development. Even if the system were to organize, any impact would remain well south of the U.S.–Mexico border, near Tampico, Mexico, which is roughly 300 miles south of the Lone Star State.

That’s why it’s critical that you download the Fox weather app to keep up with the latest developments on whether they can move markets. Also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network because they’re the only network in America that is truly invested in you!

Call Phil Flynn to get the Daily Trade Levels and open your futures trading account 888-264-.5665 or e-mail Pflynn@pricegroup.com.