Grains Report 06/26/2025

DJ Global Grain Output Expected to Hit Record High, IGC Says
By Joe Hoppe
Global grain production estimates for the year have risen to a record high, the International Grains Council said Thursday.
The IGC forecasts global grain output at 2.313 billion metric tons in the 2024-25 season, up three million tons from May’s estimate. This would be a record high, just above 2023-24’s estimated harvest of 2.311 billion tons.
The raise mainly reflects an increase in expectations for corn crops. Consumption expectations were raised two million tons to 2.336 billion tons.
For corn, the IGC raised expected output by two million tons to 1.225 billion tons compared with 1.233 billion tons a year earlier.
Wheat output is expected at 799 million tons, flat on May’s estimate, while rice estimates have been raised by two million tons to 541 million tons, tied to an upgrade for Indian production expectations.
Soybean output expectations have been raised by three million tons to 423 million tons, a record on heavy South American harvests.
Looking ahead to the harvest season ending in 2026, the IGC projects an overall increase in output, led by corn. Total grain output is expected to rise to 2.377 billion tons, up from May’s estimate of 2.375 billion tons. Faster consumption growth is also expected at 2.373 billion tons, including record high feed, food and industrial uses, the IGC said.
The estimate uses the latest acreage estimates and yield prospects.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 26
For the week ended Jun 19, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 255.2 0.0 6592.1 6094.1 5856.5 0.0
hrw 88.6 0.0 2541.0 1498.2 2198.5 0.0
srw 34.7 0.0 1160.9 952.7 1097.2 0.0
hrs 76.2 0.0 1843.6 2096.0 1642.2 0.0
white 49.4 0.0 954.9 1426.2 830.4 0.0
durum 6.3 0.0 91.7 120.9 88.2 0.0
corn 741.2 305.5 67574.5 53378.1 12816.0 3593.9
soybeans 402.9 156.2 49473.8 44502.1 3864.0 1349.1
soymeal 93.9 166.1 14257.4 12856.4 3352.8 623.1
soyoil 4.0 0.0 1055.9 172.2 54.0 13.3
upland cotton 27.3 64.7 11696.1 12822.8 1756.1 1712.3
pima cotton 1.8 0.0 455.0 342.1 79.0 19.7
sorghum 29.7 0.0 1668.9 5456.1 150.6 0.3
barley 0.6 0.0 56.2 19.3 53.3 0.0
rice 3.4 27.8 3056.0 3393.3 372.2 49.3

WHEAT
General Comments: All three Wheat markets closed lower yesterday as growing and harvesting conditions were very good. Strong yields are reported for crops in HRW and SRW areas. It is hot and dry to the south, but the north saw big rains over the weekend to support Spring Wheat development. There are still reports that the weather has reduced production potential in Ukraine and Russia and reports of recent dry weather in some parts of the EU and China was a concern, but there has been rains in these areas recently. Russia is forecasting a large reduction in Wheat production for the coming year. Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, but Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada had been dry. Conditions in the US are now generally good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down Support is at 522, 506 and 494 July, with resistance at 581, 591, and 605 July. Trends in Kansas City are down. Support is at 518, 500, and 488 July, with resistance at 551, 575, and 582 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down. Support is at 608, 596, and 584 July, and resistance is at 636, 648, and 659 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday and broke through nearest support areas on the daily charts in part due to the cease fire between Israel and Iran and in part due to poor demand ideas for US Rice. Weaker Asian prices are a drag on US futures, but the US trade depends much more on South American competition that has actually been offering less. Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice has emerged in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good but too much rain has been reported in southern areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1315, 1282, and 1261 July and resistance is at 1380, 1402, and 1410 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday on moderate, with less heat and some showers in the Midwest. Warmer and drier weather was in the forecast into this week after a hot and dry weekend. Warm weather returns in the forecasts for next week. A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and moderate drought extends east in a corridor into the Chicago area. The rest of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 407, 404, and 400 July, and resistance is at 431, 436, and 446 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 355, 352, and 349 July, and resistance is at 363, 370, and 385 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower yesterday, and the products were lower as forecasts remained moderate in the Midwest. Forecasts for good growing conditions in the Midwest and as cheaper prices reported from Brazil are still being heard, and the Midwest will turn warm and wet after hot conditions were reported over the weekend. The market could remain under pressure as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Soybean Oil was the upside leader on the news of increased biofuels requirements coming soon to the US petroleum industry.
Overnight News: Egypt bought 110,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 1009, 985, and 973 July, and resistance is at 1038, 1056, and 1064 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 275.00, 272.00, and 269.00 July, and resistance is at 284.00, 287.00, and 290.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 5060, 4900, and 4760 July, with resistance at 5300, 5430, and 5580 July.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher yesterday on ideas of improved export demand and weakening production potential. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was higher in recovery trading. Trends are up on the daily charts and are turning up on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up. Support is at 680.00, 662.00, and 649.00 July, with resistance at 754.00, 759.00, and 765.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 3980, 3960, and 3870 September, with resistance at 4030, 4120, and 4210 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 26
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 987.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 987.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 995.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1007.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 992.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 992.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1000.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1012.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 967.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 885.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 4,020.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 384.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.227)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 26
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 169,343 lots, or 7.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 4,195 4,204 4,177 4,197 4,208 4,188 -20 6,186 6,679
Sep-25 4,169 4,169 4,142 4,150 4,186 4,152 -34 131,367 200,585
Nov-25 4,105 4,105 4,077 4,082 4,114 4,085 -29 22,432 68,976
Jan-26 4,084 4,084 4,062 4,067 4,094 4,069 -25 5,826 14,632
Mar-26 4,069 4,069 4,048 4,051 4,080 4,056 -24 3,408 20,821
May-26 4,090 4,098 4,080 4,086 4,113 4,088 -25 124 682
Corn
Turnover: 647,533 lots, or 15.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 2,356 2,361 2,350 2,354 2,353 2,355 2 87,125 156,909
Sep-25 2,377 2,387 2,372 2,378 2,381 2,379 -2 468,926 994,414
Nov-25 2,311 2,327 2,311 2,318 2,316 2,318 2 55,687 319,022
Jan-26 2,270 2,280 2,268 2,271 2,273 2,273 0 22,106 113,407
Mar-26 2,268 2,273 2,261 2,264 2,269 2,266 -3 9,591 68,734
May-26 2,300 2,303 2,293 2,295 2,301 2,298 -3 4,098 17,378
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,877,581 lots, or 84.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 2,825 2,827 2,783 2,804 2,851 2,804 -47 27,412 47,974
Aug-25 2,970 2,971 2,908 2,923 2,991 2,936 -55 52,898 188,507
Sep-25 2,986 2,988 2,921 2,936 3,009 2,951 -58 1,851,366 2,252,700
Nov-25 3,025 3,025 2,959 2,975 3,043 2,985 -58 129,862 584,308
Dec-25 3,046 3,050 2,996 3,008 3,060 3,022 -38 15,927 112,241
Jan-26 3,025 3,030 2,970 2,983 3,045 2,997 -48 530,975 1,020,023
Mar-26 2,869 2,870 2,833 2,849 2,881 2,847 -34 44,505 210,688
May-26 2,720 2,722 2,696 2,710 2,729 2,706 -23 224,636 398,829
Palm Oil
Turnover: 722,500 lots, or 60.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 8,440 8,500 8,402 8,408 8,440 8,426 -14 491 1,137
Aug-25 8,366 8,444 8,336 8,396 8,366 8,388 22 3,473 7,341
Sep-25 8,308 8,408 8,290 8,360 8,324 8,348 24 653,695 455,008
Oct-25 8,314 8,392 8,278 8,348 8,300 8,338 38 828 1,161
Nov-25 8,274 8,384 8,270 8,340 8,298 8,336 38 151 930
Dec-25 8,322 8,398 8,298 8,346 8,300 8,340 40 94 604
Jan-26 8,308 8,418 8,292 8,360 8,322 8,356 34 62,674 125,178
Feb-26 8,338 8,338 8,320 8,320 8,296 8,322 26 3 928
Mar-26 8,250 8,334 8,250 8,302 8,256 8,300 44 25 288
Apr-26 8,218 8,254 8,218 8,254 8,244 8,226 -18 4 72
May-26 8,230 8,292 8,180 8,240 8,212 8,240 28 1,052 3,123
Jun-26 8,172 8,256 8,152 8,204 8,186 8,196 10 10 14
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 449,977 lots, or 35.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 8,076 8,166 8,072 8,116 8,076 8,104 28 2,558 14,713
Aug-25 8,022 8,084 8,008 8,068 8,020 8,044 24 1,326 10,394
Sep-25 7,956 8,026 7,948 8,000 7,954 7,982 28 366,491 570,152
Nov-25 7,976 8,024 7,950 8,002 7,962 7,986 24 466 4,134
Dec-25 7,982 8,036 7,982 8,010 7,978 8,012 34 111 1,735
Jan-26 7,916 7,974 7,902 7,938 7,906 7,930 24 70,376 209,222
Mar-26 7,776 7,810 7,754 7,778 7,770 7,778 8 67 1,018
May-26 7,606 7,636 7,558 7,586 7,614 7,594 -20 8,582 16,666
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322