Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Fed Chair Powell Testimony, New Home Sales, and New Home Sales MoM at 9;00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction and 2-Year FRN Auction at 10:30 A.M., 5-Year Note Auction, Building Permits Final, and Building Permits MoM Final at 12:00 P.M., Cold Storage and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.
The Federal Reserve estimated that the M2 money supply at the beginning of May was up 0.4% from April at a record large $21.9 trillion, marking the 19th consecutive month that the money supply increased. Compared to a year ago, M2 was up 4.%%, the 15th consecutive month of year-over-year increases, and the largest increase since July 2022. The Fed has turned more dovish in the last year, stopping interest rate hikes and ending quantitative tightening. Additionally, the economy has been quite resilient despite fears of tariff – related inflation, which has yet to materialize, while real wages have marked substantial gains in the first half of 2025. This has led to increased bank lending, as well as increases in savings accounts and money-market funds. And of course, government borrowing and spending has yet to slow by any significant measure. With inflation and Unemployment in retreat it should behoove the Fed to be more dovish, and actually throw taxpayers a crumb, and give the market an overdue rate cut.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Regular Rain, Cooler Temps Resume in E Midwest; Moisture Issues Confined to Pockets of IA/Central Plains:
The Central US outlook remains favorable, with the major forecasting models in agreement on a shift to cooler/wetter conditions east of the Mississippi River and soaking precipitation due in IA, MN, and WI over the next 6-7 days. Strong high pressure Ridging currently aloft the E Midwest/Mid-Atlantic exits the region in the next24 hours. A routine summer upper air pattern is established soon thereafter. Excessive heat ends in IL, IN, and OH Wed/Turs. NOAA’s projected soil moisture anomalies on July 7th assuming the current two-week forecast verifies. Rainfall of 1-2”blankets the whole of the Corn Belt into early next week as the jet stream is allowed to move southward. 8-15 day guidance projects similar totals across the Southeastern US July 2-8. Any extreme heat in early July favors TX, OK, western KS, and LA?AR.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Scores New Contract Lows; Crude Falls Sharply; Cash Markets Imply Larger Old Crop US Stocks:
CBOT corn futures ended lower for a third day amid ongoing favorable US weather and a lack of offsetting bullish input. The market is nearing oversold technical territory and AG Resources (ARC) estimate funds’ short position at a sizable 200,000 contracts, but until there’s a fundamental spark a broad downtrend stays in place until late summer. ARC’s chart-based target remains $3.90-$4.00. The lack of movement in interior bids poses a risk that June 1st US Socks – and so final 24/25 ending stocks – will be larger than expected. Any boost to the 24/25 carryover is added to a record 2025 production. The chore of the market is to maximize ethanol production margins and encourage importers to restock inventories. Brazilian safrinha yields will be watched closely as harvest progress in Mato Grosso this week reaches 20-22% complete.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Favorable Weather & Larger 24/25 Ending Stocks Lead Bears. The Corn & Ethanol Report 06/25/2025
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Fed Chair Powell Testimony, New Home Sales, and New Home Sales MoM at 9;00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction and 2-Year FRN Auction at 10:30 A.M., 5-Year Note Auction, Building Permits Final, and Building Permits MoM Final at 12:00 P.M., Cold Storage and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.
The Federal Reserve estimated that the M2 money supply at the beginning of May was up 0.4% from April at a record large $21.9 trillion, marking the 19th consecutive month that the money supply increased. Compared to a year ago, M2 was up 4.%%, the 15th consecutive month of year-over-year increases, and the largest increase since July 2022. The Fed has turned more dovish in the last year, stopping interest rate hikes and ending quantitative tightening. Additionally, the economy has been quite resilient despite fears of tariff – related inflation, which has yet to materialize, while real wages have marked substantial gains in the first half of 2025. This has led to increased bank lending, as well as increases in savings accounts and money-market funds. And of course, government borrowing and spending has yet to slow by any significant measure. With inflation and Unemployment in retreat it should behoove the Fed to be more dovish, and actually throw taxpayers a crumb, and give the market an overdue rate cut.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Regular Rain, Cooler Temps Resume in E Midwest; Moisture Issues Confined to Pockets of IA/Central Plains:
The Central US outlook remains favorable, with the major forecasting models in agreement on a shift to cooler/wetter conditions east of the Mississippi River and soaking precipitation due in IA, MN, and WI over the next 6-7 days. Strong high pressure Ridging currently aloft the E Midwest/Mid-Atlantic exits the region in the next24 hours. A routine summer upper air pattern is established soon thereafter. Excessive heat ends in IL, IN, and OH Wed/Turs. NOAA’s projected soil moisture anomalies on July 7th assuming the current two-week forecast verifies. Rainfall of 1-2”blankets the whole of the Corn Belt into early next week as the jet stream is allowed to move southward. 8-15 day guidance projects similar totals across the Southeastern US July 2-8. Any extreme heat in early July favors TX, OK, western KS, and LA?AR.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Scores New Contract Lows; Crude Falls Sharply; Cash Markets Imply Larger Old Crop US Stocks:
CBOT corn futures ended lower for a third day amid ongoing favorable US weather and a lack of offsetting bullish input. The market is nearing oversold technical territory and AG Resources (ARC) estimate funds’ short position at a sizable 200,000 contracts, but until there’s a fundamental spark a broad downtrend stays in place until late summer. ARC’s chart-based target remains $3.90-$4.00. The lack of movement in interior bids poses a risk that June 1st US Socks – and so final 24/25 ending stocks – will be larger than expected. Any boost to the 24/25 carryover is added to a record 2025 production. The chore of the market is to maximize ethanol production margins and encourage importers to restock inventories. Brazilian safrinha yields will be watched closely as harvest progress in Mato Grosso this week reaches 20-22% complete.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374