Softs Report 06/20/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower yesterday. There are still reports of better weather for planting in Texas and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported moderate to poor weekly export sales. Planting conditions remain good in Texas, but it is still too wet in the Delta and Southeast. Planting progress is still a little behind the five year average and condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is off to a good start and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 67.79 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 63.80, 62.10, and 60.80 July, with resistance of 66.80, 67.20 and 67.90 July.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 20
For the week ended Jun 12, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
upland cotton 83.2 274.9 11668.7 12732.1 1913.3 1647.6
pima cotton -1.9 6.5 453.2 337.3 85.2 19.7

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were sharply lower to limit down yesterday and trends are down in the market. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. Production estimates from USDA remain well below those from a year ago. USDA estimated Florida production up slightly from the previous estimate at 12.0 million boxes, but that is still down 34% from last year. All US production was also a little higher from the previous report, but still down 37% for the year. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 236.00, 224.00, and 212.00 July, with resistance at 261.00, 271.00, and 292.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower for the third time yesterday as the market feels supplies are increasing, particularly the Robusta availability in Brazil. Prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting and is expected to be less this year. Cooxupe said on Wednesday that its farmers had harvested 17.8% of the expected 2025 crop as of June 13, from 26.6% last year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 285.42 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 317.00, 311.00, and 305.00 July, and resistance is at 338.00, 343.00 and 354.00 July. Trends in London are down. Support is at 3990, 3930, and 3870 July, with resistance at 4250, 4310, and 4540 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed lower and at new lows for the move as the price action returned to the overall trend. London made new lows for the move before finding buying interest to close higher. Ideas of good supplies for the market continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Centre-South Brazil has also been stronger than expected in recent weeks. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. The Monsoon has featured above average rains. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. These ideas have helped support Sugar futures.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1560, 1540, and 1510 July and resistance is at 1660, 1680, and 1710 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 456.00, 450.00, and 444.00 August, with resistance at 484.00, 491.00, and 499.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were lower yesterday on speculative selling. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Pod counts for the mid crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production this season, and current weather is dry for the crops for the coming crop. Trends are turning down again in London and in New York. Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast reached 1.540 million tons in May.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 8940, 8800, and 8300 July, with resistance at 11970, 10410, and 11280 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 6140, 6040, and 5910 July, with resistance at 6980, 7290, and 7550 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322