Softs Report 06/17/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher yesterday in mostly quiet trading. USDA last week cut significantly the production potential for the crop still being planted and this filtered down to the ending stocks estimates. It also cut production estimates for South Asia. China and the US reached a trade agreement last week that covered rare earth metals but little else No mention was made of agriculture and agricultural trade between the countries. There are still reports of better weather for planting in Texas and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported moderate to poor weekly export sales. Planting conditions remain good in Texas, but it is still too wet in the Delta and Southeast. Planting progress is still a little behind the five year average and condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is off to a good start and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 67.96 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 63.80, 62.10, and 60.80 July, with resistance of 66.80, 67.20 and 67.90 July.

0 This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Planted 85 76 85 90
Cotton Squaring 19 12 21 17
Cotton Setting Bolls 3 5 3
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 6 13 33 43 5
Cotton Last Week 10 11 30 43 6
Cotton Last Year 2 11 33 47 7

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were sharply lower yesterday and trends are still mixed in the market. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. Production estimates from USDA and private sources remain well below those from a year ago. USDA estimated Florida production up slightly from the previous estimate at 12.0 million boxes, but that is still down 34% from last year. All US production was also a little higher from the previous report, but still down 37% for the year. The futures market caress much more about Florida conditions. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 248.00, 236.00, and 224.00 July, with resistance at 292.00, 295.00, and 304.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday as the market feels supplies are increasing. Prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting and is expected to be less this year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 303.02 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 337.00, 324.00, and 318.00 July, and resistance is at 368.00, 376.00 and 379.00 July. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4250, 4230, and 4170 July, with resistance at 4620, 4720, and 4810 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on what appeared to be a big round of speculative short covering. Ideas of good supplies for the market continue to be heard. There were reports of drier weather in center south Brazil and the harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. The Monsoon has featur3ed above average rains. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. These ideas have helped support Sugar futures.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1590, 1560, and 1540 July and resistance is at 1680, 1710, and 1740 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 456.00, 450.00, and 444.00 August, with resistance at 484.00, 491.00, and 499.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were higher yesterday in what was called thin speculative trading. There are still reports of increased flows of Cocoa from Nigeria and reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Early pod counts for the 2025/26 main crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production next season, and current weather is dry for the crops. Trends are turning down again in London and in New York.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 8940, 8800, and 8300 July, with resistance at 11970, 10410, and 11280 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 6140, 6040, and 5910 July, with resistance at 6980, 7290, and 7550 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322