One of the trickier things about being a market analyst is trying to determine whether market are overdone, and I’m not talking about a steak. Calling tops or bottoms in the market has given grief to many who have come before me and it will continue to do so for centuries to come (unless AI figures it out somehow). The commodity markets are in a precarious spot at the moment. Cattle are off fresh all time high from earlier this week and pulled back to close things out. Grains are at the opposite end of the spectrum at least if you were looking at corn and wheat, as both have hit either contract lows or approaching multi some month lows for the last couple weeks. The tricky part of all of this is trying to determine if the selling, or buying in cattle’s case, is done, or the reversion to the mean is more temporary. Of course, the follow-through is always what we’re looking for in determining directionality, so stay tuned!
Corn saw some unwinding of the recent bear spreading, with July up 2 cents this week and December down 6 ¼ cents. USDA made one major change on Thursday’s WASDE for corn, with old crop US stocks cut by 50 mbu to 1.365 bbu on an increase to exports. That proceeded to be the only change to new crop, down to 1.75 bbu via a smaller carry in. Monday’s Crop Progress data indicated 97% of the US corn crop planted as of June 8, now at the 5-year average. Ratings were pegged at 71% good or excellent up 2%, with a 375 score on the Brugler500 index, 3 points higher. EIA showed ethanol production up another 15,000 barrels per day to 1.21million bpd in the week of 6/6. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of 706,000 barrels to 23.734 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 791,327 MT for the week that ended on June 5. That brought the total export commitments to 65.93 MMT, which is 98% of the new USDA full-year export forecast, now slightly below the 5-year average pace for this week. New crop was a net reduction of 29,550 MT. Friday’s CFTC report showed spec funds adding to their net short in corn futures and options by 9,977 contracts to a net -164,020 contracts by June 10.
The wheat complex weakness across the three markets, despite a stronger Friday move. Chicago SRW futures were down 11 cents, with KC 8 1/2 cents lower. MPLS futures were a dime lower on the week. USDA made no changes to the old crop wheat balance sheet on Friday at 841 mbu, with new crop down 25 mbu at 898 mbu on an increase to export. Crop Progress data from Monday showed the US spring wheat crop ratings improving 3% to 53% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 347, up 7. Winter wheat ratings were tallied at 54% good/excellent, up 2%, with the Brugler500 index up 5 points to 341. The weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2025/26 business 388,919 MT. Total commitments are 5.19 MMT, which is 26% of USDA’s export estimate and ahead of the 24% average pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs trimming 6,561 contracts from their large net short position in CBT wheat futures and options to 94,011 contracts. In KC wheat, they cut back 3,064 contracts from their large net short to 74,964 contracts during the week of 6/10.
Soybeans saw some strength this week driven by the Friday move, with July up 12 ½ cents, as November was up 17 ¾ cents. July soybean meal saw a pullback, down $3.80. Bean oil posted a rally on Friday of the limit to drive the buss, with weekly gains in July of 311 points. The market shot higher on Friday following the EPA release of their RVO proposal for 5.61 billion gallon limit for Biomass-based diesel for 2026. They are also looking to cut RIN credits to half for imported feedstocks. USDA’s WASDE saw no changes to the US Balance sheet on Thursday, with old crop at 350 mbu and new crop at 295 mbu. USDA’s Crop Progress report tallied 90% of the US soybean crop planted by 6/8, still ahead of the 5-year average pace. Condition ratings were tallied at 69% good/excellent, 2 points higher than last week, equating to 372 on the Brugler500 index, up 2. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to 61,394 MT in the week of June 6. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 48.71 MMT. That is 97% of USDA’s export projection for the marketing year, 3 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. New crop business continues to be light at just 58,086 MT. Commitment of Traders data showed money managers in soybean futures and options adding back 17,038 contracts to their net long as of Tuesday, to a net long of 25,639 contracts.
Live cattle were pulling back this week, with Friday pressure the biggest factor after hitting new all-time highs earlier in the week. June was down $1.20 this week. The cash market a more steady week, with southern sales mainly at $233-238, steady to slightly higher. Northern trade was at $240-244 this week, steady from the week prior. Feeders also saw weakness this week, with August dropping $3.725. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $10.94 week/week to $317.10. Wholesale boxed beef prices stalled out this week. Choice was up $12.80 (3.5%) to $377.88, while Select was $6.77 higher to $363.50. Weekly beef production was down 4.2% from the same week last year at 484.9 million lbs this week. Year to date beef production is now down 2.9%, as slaughter is 6.2% lower. USDA tallied beef export sales at 15,337 MT in the week ending on June 5. Shipments were 14,542 MT, whish was the highest in 3 weeks. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money in live cattle futures and options adding back another 6,031 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 137,836 contracts. Spec traders added another 1,135 contracts to their new record net long in feeder cattle futures and options to 35,962 contracts by June 10.
Hogs continued the push higher this week, up another $2.375 on the week to post contract highs. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $5.18 this week at $96.57 as of June 11. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout shot up another $6.55 on the week (5.9%) to $118.06/cwt. That is the highest since August 2022. All primals were reported higher, with the belly leading the charge, up $17.29. Pork production was up 1.4% from the same week a year ago at 513.7 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 1.7%, as slaughter is 2.0% lower. Pork export sales totaled just 9,739 MT in the week ending on June 5. Export shipments were a 15-week high at 33,761 MT. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 16,592 contracts to their large net long position as of 6/10 to a net position of 118,218 contracts.
Cotton futures posted a 26 point pull back this week in the July contract, with December 37 points lower. USDA’s WASDE report showed a fairly friendly set of data, cutting old crop stocks by 400,000 bales on an increase to exports. New crop saw the smaller carryover, as well as a smaller production tally by 500,000 bales, with a net reduction of new crop carryout by 900,000 bales. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 76% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, behind the 80% pace from the 5-year average. Condition ratings were 49% good/excellent, or 324 on the Brugler500 index, steady on the week. Export Sales data showed a total of 60,180 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on June 6. Shipments pushed to a 3-week high at 236,251 RB. Upland cotton commitments are 11.586 million RB, 108.2% of the USDA export forecast and slightly behind the 114% average pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 26 points higher this week, to 54.02 cents/lb. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds adding back another 6,254 contracts to their net short position as of June 10 to 52,859 contracts.
Market Watch
We start next week with a fairly normal schedule, as USDA will release the weekly Export Inspections on Monday morning and the Crop Progress report out that afternoon. Monday will also see the release of the monthly NOPA report. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released on Wednesday per normal. Wednesday is also rate announcement from the two-day the Fed meeting, with most looking for rates to be left alone. The market and government will be closed on Thursday in observation of Juneteenth. Friday will see the delayed release of the Export Sales report, as well as the monthly Cattle on Feed report. It is also the last trade day for July grain options.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
Well, what a day! After all of the rumors, EPA was actually a little friendly to the ag industry with their release of the RVO volumes for biodiesel. That shot the bean oil market higher, which dragged the bean market along with it. As you can see with the big green candlestick on the very far right of the chart, soybeans had a pretty good rally on the day. Technically speaking though, all we had on Friday was a big green candlestick. I’m sure producers will take it. After some early week pressure, the market did hold at a 2/3 speed line off of the April low to the May high, which was friendly in keeping the thoughts of hitting that February high intact. The rally took us all the way to a downtrend line off of the October 2023 and May 2024 highs which sits around $10.55. As you may be able to see, that stopped the rally back in May. In terms of trying to push onwards towards the February high of $10.75 3/4, that would be the next battle for the bulls. Stochastics are still arguing for an extension higher, as they are still bullish and not yet overbought. With all of the biofuels news past us (it still has to be approved following some public comments), the market is going to be heavily focused on growing conditions over the next few months and any potential acreage changes at the end of the month. So be on your toes!
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Tops and Bottoms. Ag Marketing Report 06/16/2025
One of the trickier things about being a market analyst is trying to determine whether market are overdone, and I’m not talking about a steak. Calling tops or bottoms in the market has given grief to many who have come before me and it will continue to do so for centuries to come (unless AI figures it out somehow). The commodity markets are in a precarious spot at the moment. Cattle are off fresh all time high from earlier this week and pulled back to close things out. Grains are at the opposite end of the spectrum at least if you were looking at corn and wheat, as both have hit either contract lows or approaching multi some month lows for the last couple weeks. The tricky part of all of this is trying to determine if the selling, or buying in cattle’s case, is done, or the reversion to the mean is more temporary. Of course, the follow-through is always what we’re looking for in determining directionality, so stay tuned!
Corn saw some unwinding of the recent bear spreading, with July up 2 cents this week and December down 6 ¼ cents. USDA made one major change on Thursday’s WASDE for corn, with old crop US stocks cut by 50 mbu to 1.365 bbu on an increase to exports. That proceeded to be the only change to new crop, down to 1.75 bbu via a smaller carry in. Monday’s Crop Progress data indicated 97% of the US corn crop planted as of June 8, now at the 5-year average. Ratings were pegged at 71% good or excellent up 2%, with a 375 score on the Brugler500 index, 3 points higher. EIA showed ethanol production up another 15,000 barrels per day to 1.21million bpd in the week of 6/6. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of 706,000 barrels to 23.734 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 791,327 MT for the week that ended on June 5. That brought the total export commitments to 65.93 MMT, which is 98% of the new USDA full-year export forecast, now slightly below the 5-year average pace for this week. New crop was a net reduction of 29,550 MT. Friday’s CFTC report showed spec funds adding to their net short in corn futures and options by 9,977 contracts to a net -164,020 contracts by June 10.
The wheat complex weakness across the three markets, despite a stronger Friday move. Chicago SRW futures were down 11 cents, with KC 8 1/2 cents lower. MPLS futures were a dime lower on the week. USDA made no changes to the old crop wheat balance sheet on Friday at 841 mbu, with new crop down 25 mbu at 898 mbu on an increase to export. Crop Progress data from Monday showed the US spring wheat crop ratings improving 3% to 53% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 347, up 7. Winter wheat ratings were tallied at 54% good/excellent, up 2%, with the Brugler500 index up 5 points to 341. The weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2025/26 business 388,919 MT. Total commitments are 5.19 MMT, which is 26% of USDA’s export estimate and ahead of the 24% average pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs trimming 6,561 contracts from their large net short position in CBT wheat futures and options to 94,011 contracts. In KC wheat, they cut back 3,064 contracts from their large net short to 74,964 contracts during the week of 6/10.
Soybeans saw some strength this week driven by the Friday move, with July up 12 ½ cents, as November was up 17 ¾ cents. July soybean meal saw a pullback, down $3.80. Bean oil posted a rally on Friday of the limit to drive the buss, with weekly gains in July of 311 points. The market shot higher on Friday following the EPA release of their RVO proposal for 5.61 billion gallon limit for Biomass-based diesel for 2026. They are also looking to cut RIN credits to half for imported feedstocks. USDA’s WASDE saw no changes to the US Balance sheet on Thursday, with old crop at 350 mbu and new crop at 295 mbu. USDA’s Crop Progress report tallied 90% of the US soybean crop planted by 6/8, still ahead of the 5-year average pace. Condition ratings were tallied at 69% good/excellent, 2 points higher than last week, equating to 372 on the Brugler500 index, up 2. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to 61,394 MT in the week of June 6. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 48.71 MMT. That is 97% of USDA’s export projection for the marketing year, 3 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. New crop business continues to be light at just 58,086 MT. Commitment of Traders data showed money managers in soybean futures and options adding back 17,038 contracts to their net long as of Tuesday, to a net long of 25,639 contracts.
Live cattle were pulling back this week, with Friday pressure the biggest factor after hitting new all-time highs earlier in the week. June was down $1.20 this week. The cash market a more steady week, with southern sales mainly at $233-238, steady to slightly higher. Northern trade was at $240-244 this week, steady from the week prior. Feeders also saw weakness this week, with August dropping $3.725. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $10.94 week/week to $317.10. Wholesale boxed beef prices stalled out this week. Choice was up $12.80 (3.5%) to $377.88, while Select was $6.77 higher to $363.50. Weekly beef production was down 4.2% from the same week last year at 484.9 million lbs this week. Year to date beef production is now down 2.9%, as slaughter is 6.2% lower. USDA tallied beef export sales at 15,337 MT in the week ending on June 5. Shipments were 14,542 MT, whish was the highest in 3 weeks. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money in live cattle futures and options adding back another 6,031 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 137,836 contracts. Spec traders added another 1,135 contracts to their new record net long in feeder cattle futures and options to 35,962 contracts by June 10.
Hogs continued the push higher this week, up another $2.375 on the week to post contract highs. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $5.18 this week at $96.57 as of June 11. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout shot up another $6.55 on the week (5.9%) to $118.06/cwt. That is the highest since August 2022. All primals were reported higher, with the belly leading the charge, up $17.29. Pork production was up 1.4% from the same week a year ago at 513.7 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 1.7%, as slaughter is 2.0% lower. Pork export sales totaled just 9,739 MT in the week ending on June 5. Export shipments were a 15-week high at 33,761 MT. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 16,592 contracts to their large net long position as of 6/10 to a net position of 118,218 contracts.
Cotton futures posted a 26 point pull back this week in the July contract, with December 37 points lower. USDA’s WASDE report showed a fairly friendly set of data, cutting old crop stocks by 400,000 bales on an increase to exports. New crop saw the smaller carryover, as well as a smaller production tally by 500,000 bales, with a net reduction of new crop carryout by 900,000 bales. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 76% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, behind the 80% pace from the 5-year average. Condition ratings were 49% good/excellent, or 324 on the Brugler500 index, steady on the week. Export Sales data showed a total of 60,180 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on June 6. Shipments pushed to a 3-week high at 236,251 RB. Upland cotton commitments are 11.586 million RB, 108.2% of the USDA export forecast and slightly behind the 114% average pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 26 points higher this week, to 54.02 cents/lb. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds adding back another 6,254 contracts to their net short position as of June 10 to 52,859 contracts.
Market Watch
We start next week with a fairly normal schedule, as USDA will release the weekly Export Inspections on Monday morning and the Crop Progress report out that afternoon. Monday will also see the release of the monthly NOPA report. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released on Wednesday per normal. Wednesday is also rate announcement from the two-day the Fed meeting, with most looking for rates to be left alone. The market and government will be closed on Thursday in observation of Juneteenth. Friday will see the delayed release of the Export Sales report, as well as the monthly Cattle on Feed report. It is also the last trade day for July grain options.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
Well, what a day! After all of the rumors, EPA was actually a little friendly to the ag industry with their release of the RVO volumes for biodiesel. That shot the bean oil market higher, which dragged the bean market along with it. As you can see with the big green candlestick on the very far right of the chart, soybeans had a pretty good rally on the day. Technically speaking though, all we had on Friday was a big green candlestick. I’m sure producers will take it. After some early week pressure, the market did hold at a 2/3 speed line off of the April low to the May high, which was friendly in keeping the thoughts of hitting that February high intact. The rally took us all the way to a downtrend line off of the October 2023 and May 2024 highs which sits around $10.55. As you may be able to see, that stopped the rally back in May. In terms of trying to push onwards towards the February high of $10.75 3/4, that would be the next battle for the bulls. Stochastics are still arguing for an extension higher, as they are still bullish and not yet overbought. With all of the biofuels news past us (it still has to be approved following some public comments), the market is going to be heavily focused on growing conditions over the next few months and any potential acreage changes at the end of the month. So be on your toes!
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.