Grains Report 06/16/2025

WHEAT
General Comments: All three Wheat markets closed lower last week as growing conditions at home and abroad have improved. USDA released its monthly supply and demand reports and made no real changes for the US data but did cut ending stocks estimates in its world data. There are still reports that the weather has reduced production potential in Ukraine and Russia and reports of dry weather in some parts of the EU and China. Russia is forecasting a large reduction in Wheat production for the coming year. Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, but Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada have been dry. Some rain is in the forecast for the northern Great Plains this week and wetter and warmer conditions are now forecast for the southern Plains as well. It is too wet in the Delta and Southeast. Overall demand for world Wheat has been weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed Support is at 520, 514 and 508 July, with resistance at 557, 561, and 569 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 514, 508, and 502 July, with resistance at 557, 563, and 574 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up. Support is at 608, 596, and 590 July, and resistance is at 640, 645, and 659 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 10, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 506,252
: Positions :
: 57,261 145,928 170,217 115,749 66,220 122,181 85,136 465,408 467,501: 40,843 38,751
: Changes from: June 3, 2025 (Change in open interest: -28,009) :
: -2,727 -5,165 -8,351 -3,822 -1,165 -13,229 -14,587 -28,129 -29,269: 120 1,260
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 28.8 33.6 22.9 13.1 24.1 16.8 91.9 92.3: 8.1 7.7
: Total Traders: 377 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 86 114 128 103 87 45 30 307 295:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 10, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 320,896
: Positions :
: 24,936 92,468 83,412 94,407 84,288 93,794 37,440 296,549 297,608: 24,347 23,288
: Changes from: June 3, 2025 (Change in open interest: 2,106) :
: -1,549 -5,568 2,322 2,758 6,603 -1,435 -1,998 2,095 1,359: 11 747
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.8 28.8 26.0 29.4 26.3 29.2 11.7 92.4 92.7: 7.6 7.3
: Total Traders: 260 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 51 69 70 90 66 35 21 218 190:
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 10, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 76,321 :
: Positions :
: 34,877 28,268 3,312 816 698 9,721 23,871 6,417 5,083 1,427 4,856 :
: Changes from: June 3, 2025 :
: -4,389 542 -317 -628 -212 -1,776 -7,703 900 290 1,088 17 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 45.7 37.0 4.3 1.1 0.9 12.7 31.3 8.4 6.7 1.9 6.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 121 :
: 53 42 7 . 8 13 21 13 7 9 13 :
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RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher last week in part in response to the USDA supply and demand reports. USDA cut production by reducing planted area and yields due to the wet weather seen in the Delta. Demand was also cut back but not as much as supply so ending stocks were a little lower. World data showed the potential for higher ending stocks. Chart trends are up on the daily charts. There is still a lot of speculative buying seen in the market that is thought to be mostly short covering, but commercial buying has been very strong as well. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice has emerged in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good but too much rain has been reported in southern areas.

Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up. Support is at 1315, 1282, and 1261 July and resistance is at 1371, 1402, and 1410 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 10, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,674 :
: Positions :
: 5,579 2,194 0 108 0 479 4,916 108 1,523 430 988 :
: Changes from: June 3, 2025 :
: -451 86 0 -13 0 -9 -553 -95 13 -17 -205 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 52.3 20.6 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.5 46.1 1.0 14.3 4.0 9.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 70 :
: 22 15 0 . 0 . 19 . 14 5 7 :
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher last week after trading lower earlier in the week on ideas of better demand and despite forecasts for good weather. July gained slightly on December on the spreads but remained near even money. EPA on Friday released its proposed renewable fuels blending requirements that were considered supportive for Corn. EPA wants increased use of biofuels, and the government wants the new demand filled by US farmers. USDA left its US production ideas unchanged but increased export demand and cut ending stocks as anticipated by many traders. World ending stocks ideas were also trimmed by USDA. Forecasts for improved growing conditions in the Midwest through this weekend were a reason to sell. Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast for this week, but temperatures should turn a little cooler over the weekend. Warm weather returns in the forecasts for next week. A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and moderate drought extends east in a corridor into the Chicago area. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and it is still too wet in the eastern and southern parts. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 431, 428, and 425 July, and resistance is at 456, 465, and 470 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 370, 367, and 364 July, and resistance is at 390, 396, and 402 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 10, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,099,065
: Positions :
: 104,350 367,205 643,535 686,287 703,707 463,398 169,499 1,897,570 1,883,947: 201,495 215,117
: Changes from: June 3, 2025 (Change in open interest: -26,780) :
: 11,129 4,560 -7,510 -16,675 -39,732 -24,065 9,034 -37,121 -33,649: 10,342 6,870
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.0 17.5 30.7 32.7 33.5 22.1 8.1 90.4 89.8: 9.6 10.2
: Total Traders: 802 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 129 151 205 381 372 51 33 687 652:
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SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher and Soybean Oil was limit up on Friday, but Soybean Meal was a little lower after the release of the new EPA biofuels blending requirements were released. The proposals increase the demand for Corn and Soybeans for blending requirements, although not as much as the industry wanted. Even so, it was a win for US agriculture and caught the market by surprise as the president has been against clean energy in the past. USDA made no significant changes to the US supply and demand estimates b ut increased ending stocks estimates for the world despite unchanged Brazil and Argentine production ideas. China and the US announced a couple of days ago that they had made a trade agreement that will allow Chinese students to attend US universities in exchange for rare earth metals. No mention of agriculture was made. Forecasts for good growing conditions in the Midwest and as cheaper prices reported from Brazil are still being heard. The market could remain under pressure as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Warmer temperatures and drier conditions are expected this week after a cold and wet week last week. A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and moderate drought extends east in a corridor into the Chicago area. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and it is still too wet in southern and eastern areas.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1046, 1043, and 1033 July, and resistance is at 1073, 1082, and 1105 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 290.00, 287.00, and 284.00 July, and resistance is at 300.00, 302.00, and 306.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are up. Support is at 4920, 4700, and 4630 July, with resistance at 5110, 5260, and 5340 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 10, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,038,315
: Positions :
: 94,855 109,298 312,746 368,047 500,859 202,792 44,695 978,440 967,598: 59,875 70,717
: Changes from: June 3, 2025 (Change in open interest: -35,211) :
: 4,501 -11,149 -15,879 -13,512 7,380 -14,195 -15,076 -39,086 -34,724: 3,874 -487
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.1 10.5 30.1 35.4 48.2 19.5 4.3 94.2 93.2: 5.8 6.8
: Total Traders: 556 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 131 121 184 193 205 49 24 476 448:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 10, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 644,852
: Positions :
: 66,209 79,618 167,710 219,236 330,828 157,624 38,753 610,779 616,909: 34,072 27,943
: Changes from: June 3, 2025 (Change in open interest: -17,737) :
: -8,271 -9,766 -6,486 4,182 3,085 -7,478 -5,230 -18,054 -18,397: 317 660
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.3 12.3 26.0 34.0 51.3 24.4 6.0 94.7 95.7: 5.3 4.3
: Total Traders: 344 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 73 85 111 102 110 40 25 282 275:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 10, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 671,097
: Positions :
: 66,065 146,018 164,837 257,775 281,301 121,676 43,540 610,352 635,696: 60,745 35,401
: Changes from: June 3, 2025 (Change in open interest: 2,193) :
: -208 -10,138 -3,238 10,726 19,488 -3,541 -5,132 3,739 980: -1,546 1,212
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8 21.8 24.6 38.4 41.9 18.1 6.5 90.9 94.7: 9.1 5.3
: Total Traders: 358 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 90 96 122 112 35 21 290 273:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher last week with the price action in Chicago and hopes for improved Indian demand. Futures were higher today on higher prices in competing oils. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Ideas of increasing production and reduced demand are also heard. Canola was higher. Trends are up on the daily charts and are turning up on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up. Support is at 680.00, 662.00, and 649.00 July, with resistance at 747.00, 753.00, and 759.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 3810, 3770, and 3720 September, with resistance at 3960, 3980, and 4020 September.

DJ Malaysia June 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Rose 18% on Month, AmSpec Says
By Amanda Lee
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the June 1-15 period are estimated up 18% on month at 606,192 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
June 1-15 May 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 112,700 126,635
RBD Palm Oil 57,520 45,541
RBD Palm Stearin 58,810 55,313
Crude Palm Oil 155,916 109,589
Total* 606,192 514,713
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 10, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 16,904 :
: Positions :
: 13,078 5,397 196 6,532 510 160 741 0 1,430 2,204 1,510 :
: Changes from: June 3, 2025 :
: 280 350 0 0 200 0 0 0 0 -60 120 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 77.4 31.9 1.2 38.6 3.0 0.9 4.4 0.0 8.5 13.0 8.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 27 :
: 7 7 . 5 . . . 0 . 5 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 10, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 256,406 :
: Positions :
: 70,889 169,394 9,298 13,495 2,215 124,609 18,778 18,098 12,103 14,498 17,412 :
: Changes from: June 3, 2025 :
: -10,191 -7,936 -1,125 -584 127 2,293 -1,468 -2,886 -629 50 -2,600 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 27.6 66.1 3.6 5.3 0.9 48.6 7.3 7.1 4.7 5.7 6.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 348 :
: 41 68 5 5 5 84 15 25 65 92 49 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 191,569 lots, or 8.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 4,246 4,248 4,223 4,228 4,218 4,237 19 27,644 31,613
Sep-25 4,241 4,263 4,234 4,242 4,218 4,246 28 132,744 210,283
Nov-25 4,139 4,164 4,127 4,153 4,118 4,148 30 22,145 64,157
Jan-26 4,113 4,145 4,109 4,130 4,103 4,126 23 5,337 12,421
Mar-26 4,102 4,126 4,097 4,116 4,088 4,113 25 3,548 18,486
May-26 4,114 4,149 4,114 4,138 4,105 4,128 23 151 505
Corn
Turnover: 749,871 lots, or 17.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 2,380 2,381 2,358 2,359 2,370 2,369 -1 409,117 637,414
Sep-25 2,404 2,406 2,390 2,391 2,395 2,397 2 281,647 719,508
Nov-25 2,314 2,318 2,309 2,311 2,309 2,313 4 31,926 276,552
Jan-26 2,281 2,281 2,273 2,275 2,272 2,276 4 15,491 89,477
Mar-26 2,268 2,274 2,266 2,270 2,264 2,270 6 10,121 64,446
May-26 2,308 2,315 2,305 2,312 2,303 2,310 7 1,569 8,398
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,057,556 lots, or 62.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 2,866 2,884 2,848 2,872 2,872 2,867 -5 80,462 212,341
Aug-25 3,023 3,042 3,003 3,028 3,031 3,023 -8 20,987 198,197
Sep-25 3,040 3,060 3,020 3,045 3,048 3,039 -9 1,422,022 2,305,935
Nov-25 3,080 3,097 3,057 3,084 3,085 3,077 -8 111,202 574,766
Dec-25 3,070 3,100 3,061 3,093 3,081 3,084 3 9,452 106,525
Jan-26 3,045 3,080 3,040 3,073 3,057 3,062 5 319,095 835,095
Mar-26 2,880 2,903 2,874 2,897 2,885 2,891 6 33,860 189,391
May-26 2,726 2,742 2,721 2,737 2,730 2,733 3 60,476 287,969
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,510,328 lots, or 12.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-25 – – – 8,606 8,600 8,606 6 0 0
Jul-25 8,300 8,602 8,280 8,542 8,264 8,496 232 20,713 9,560
Aug-25 8,246 8,550 8,224 8,500 8,208 8,438 230 6,280 6,857
Sep-25 8,170 8,482 8,140 8,436 8,130 8,358 228 1,374,614 485,717
Oct-25 8,102 8,434 8,102 8,394 8,078 8,302 224 283 941
Nov-25 8,106 8,410 8,088 8,348 8,086 8,286 200 323 882
Dec-25 8,114 8,412 8,114 8,360 8,086 8,298 212 186 518
Jan-26 8,104 8,584 8,088 8,372 8,100 8,338 238 106,107 99,525
Feb-26 8,114 8,412 8,114 8,344 8,062 8,292 230 45 912
Mar-26 8,084 8,368 8,084 8,300 8,056 8,254 198 93 279
Apr-26 8,038 8,284 8,038 8,278 8,006 8,228 222 33 88
May-26 7,986 8,316 7,982 8,258 7,984 8,216 232 1,651 2,120
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 817,368 lots, or 6.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 7,930 8,094 7,902 8,062 7,896 8,036 140 16,151 28,159
Aug-25 7,832 8,020 7,816 7,986 7,802 7,954 152 1,241 9,405
Sep-25 7,788 7,998 7,780 7,960 7,770 7,926 156 697,940 555,830
Nov-25 7,804 8,040 7,780 7,964 7,760 7,936 176 997 3,269
Dec-25 7,812 8,038 7,798 7,966 7,778 7,934 156 373 1,702
Jan-26 7,744 7,938 7,724 7,894 7,716 7,866 150 96,670 180,912
Mar-26 7,600 7,772 7,600 7,716 7,598 7,722 124 236 933
May-26 7,464 7,608 7,448 7,576 7,440 7,562 122 3,760 8,868
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322