Grains Report 06/12/2025

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. 2025 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA May USDA 2024
Corn Production 15,795 15,525-15,820 15,820 14,867
Corn Yield 180.9 179.0-181.0 181.0 179.3
Soybean Production 4,338 4,300-4,340 4,340 4,366
Soybean Yield 52.5 52.0-52.5 52.5 50.7
****
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2024-25
Average Range USDA May
Corn 1,386 1,315-1,450 1,415
Soybeans 352 340-382 350
Wheat 840 816-866 841
2025-26
Average Range USDA May
Corn 1,792 1,655-2,135 1,800
Soybeans 302 285-394 295
Wheat 916 868-948 923
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2024-25
Average Range USDA May
Corn 288.1 285.0-295.0 287.3
Soybeans 123.1 122.0-124.2 123.2
Wheat 265.2 264.3-266.0 265.2
2025-26
Average Range USDA May
Corn 278.9 275.0-285.0 277.8
Soybeans 124.6 123.4-126.0 124.3
Wheat 265.1 254.9-270.0 265.7
****
2025-26 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA May USDA 2024-25
All Wheat 1,923 1,891-1,949 1,921 1,971
Winter Wheat 1,386 1,347-1,410 1,382 1,349
Hard Red Winter 789 768-800 784 770
Soft Red Winter 347 340-355 345 342
White Winter 252 247-256 253 236
****
2024-25
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA May
Corn 131.5 129.0-135.0 130.0
Soybeans 169.2 168.3-171.0 169.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA May
Corn 49.9 49.0-51.0 50.0
Soybeans 49.0 48.0-50.0 49.0

DJ Brazil Reports New Record Crop Production
By Kirk Maltais
Crop production for the 2024/25 marketing year hit a new record high in Brazil, according to the country’s agricultural agency.
Conab said Thursday that it sees Brazil’s crop output for the marketing year totaling 336.1 million metric tons, which would be 13% higher than production in the previous year. Helping drive that is a record-high output for Brazil’s second corn crop, commonly referred to as the “safrinha” crop. Production of that crop is expected to total a record 128.3 million tons, Conab said.
Record soybean production also helped elevate the record total, totaling 169.6 million tons. That’s a new record-high, up 21.9 million tons from the previous marketing year.
“The good result is justified by the growing use of technology by producers, combined with good weather conditions in most producing regions,” said Conab in its report.
Brazilian crop production is a metric closely watched by the world agricultural market, as Brazilian crops hit the export market. Competition with Brazil makes sales of U.S. exports harder to come by, particularly for soybeans, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture reporting that old-crop soybean sales hit a marketing-year low of 61,400 tons for the week ended June 5.
In premarket trade overnight, most-active corn futures on the CBOT rose 0.7%, while soybeans climbed 0.2% and wheat rose 0.2%.

DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 12
For the week ended Jun 5, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for cotton and rice begins Aug 1. The
marketing year for corn, soybeans and sorghum begins Sep 1. The
marketing year for soymeal and soyoil begins Oct 1.
For wheat and barley, “this year” is the 2025-2026 marketing
year, which began Jun 1, while “last year” is 2024-2025.
Source: USDA
wk’s net change total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 188.1-a 0.0 5909.7 4837.2 5794.0 0.0
hrw 78.6-b 0.0 2325.0 1126.2 2312.5 0.0
srw 30.6-c 0.0 1093.3 837.2 1072.0 0.0
hrs 49.9-d 0.0 1558.6 1669.1 1495.2 0.0
white 11.1-e 0.0 847.6 1095.9 829.1 0.0
durum 18.0-f 0.0 85.2 108.9 85.2 0.0
corn 791.3 -29.6 65929.4 52324.4 14388.1 3133.4
soybeans 61.4 58.1 48712.5 43721.0 3593.3 1117.8
soymeal 214.5 46.5 14003.3 12458.3 3653.5 442.9
soyoil 5.6 -1.5 1053.3 161.9 77.1 13.4
upland cotton 60.2 36.1 11585.5 12543.1 2034.8 1372.8
pima cotton 1.4 0.4 455.1 329.4 90.1 13.2
sorghum 90.7 0.2 1588.4 5397.9 163.2 0.3
barley 0.1-g 0.0 51.5 19.3 50.7 0.0
rice 48.4 11.1 3042.7 3290.6 482.2 21.2
-a: Includes new sales activity for May 30-Jun 5 which resulted
in a net increase of 4.1 thousand metric tons. Also includes
184.0 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2024-2025.
-b: Includes new sales activity for May 30-Jun 5 which resulted
in a net increase of 0.1 thousand metric tons. Also includes
78.5 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2024-2025.
-c: Includes new sales activity for May 30-Jun 5 which resulted
in a net decrease of -0.6 thousand metric tons. Also includes
31.2 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2024-2025.
-d: Includes new sales activity for May 30-Jun 5 which resulted
in a net increase of 2.4 thousand metric tons. Also includes
47.5 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2024-2025.
-e: Includes new sales activity for May 31-Jun 6 which resulted
in a net increase of 2.2 thousand metric tons. Also includes
8.9 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2024-2025.
-f: Includes new sales activity for May 30-Jun 5 which resulted
in a net decrease of 0.0 thousand metric tons. Also includes
18.0 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2024-2025.
-g: Includes new sales activity for May 30-Jun 5 which resulted
in a net decrease of 0.0 thousand metric tons. Also includes
0.1 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2024-2025.

WHEAT
General Comments: All three Wheat markets closed mostly a little higher in choppy trading yesterday as growing conditions at home and abroad have improved. There are still reports that the weather has reduced production potential in Ukraine and Russia and reports of dry weather in some parts of the EU and China. Russia is forecasting a large reduction in Wheat production for the coming year. Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, but Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada have been dry. Some rain is in the forecast for the northern Great Plains this week and wetter and warmer conditions are now forecast for the southern Plains as well. It is too wet in the Delta and Southeast. Overall demand for world Wheat has been weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed Support is at 527, 520 and 514 July, with resistance at 557, 561, and 569 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 523, 514, and 508 July, with resistance at 557, 563, and 574 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up. Support is at 608, 596, and 590 July, and resistance is at 640, 645, and 659 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday after trading higher for much of the day after an initial move lower failed to follow through. Chart trends are up on the daily charts. There is still a lot of speculative buying seen in the market that is thought to be mostly short covering, but commercial buying has been very strong as well. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice has emerged in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good but too much rain has been reported in southern areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up. Support is at 1315, 1282, and 1261 July and resistance is at 1371, 1402, and 1410 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower yesterday on forecasts for good weather. July lost to December on the spreads and is still trading under December after trading 35 higher just a few months ago. Forecasts for improved growing conditions in the Midwest through this weekend were a reason to sell. Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast for this week, but temperatures should turn a little cooler over the weekend. Warm weather returns in zthe forecasts for next week. A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and moderate drought extends east in a corridor into the Chicago area. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and it is still too wet in the eastern and southern parts. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 431, 428, and 425 July, and resistance is at 456, 465, and 470 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 370, 367, and 364 July, and resistance is at 390, 396, and 402 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were a little lower yesterday, but Soybean Oil was a little higher. China and the US announced they had made a trade agreement that will allow Chinese students to attend US universities in exchange for rare earth metals. No mention of agriculture was made. Forecasts for good growing conditions in the Midwest and as cheaper prices reported from Brazil are still being heard. The market could remain under pressure as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Warmer temperatures and drier conditions are expected this week after a cold and wet week last week. A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and moderate drought extends east in a corridor into the Chicago area. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and it is still too wet in southern and eastern areas.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1028, 1021, and 1009 July, and resistance is at 1062, 1073, and 1082 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 290.00, 287.00, and 284.00 July, and resistance is at 300.00, 302.00, and 306.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4580, 4530, and 4430 July, with resistance at 4800, 4900, and 5030 July.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were a little higher with the price action in Chicago and hopes for improved Indian demand. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Ideas of increasing production and reduced demand are also heard. Canola was higher. Trends are mixed to up on the daily charts and mixed on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down. Support is at 680.00, 662.00, and 649.00 July, with resistance at 719.00, 735.00, and 741.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 3820, 3770, and 3710 August, with resistance at 3990, 4040, and 4130 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 960.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul 960.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 952.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 960.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 970.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 965.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul 965.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 957.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 965.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 975.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 930.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 850.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 3,900.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 355.00 -06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.219)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 240,464 lots, or 10.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 4,175 4,218 4,167 4,197 4,188 4,194 6 47,098 34,464
Sep-25 4,163 4,218 4,162 4,198 4,174 4,189 15 167,333 189,341
Nov-25 4,084 4,122 4,078 4,108 4,087 4,099 12 17,318 60,488
Jan-26 4,066 4,103 4,062 4,091 4,073 4,087 14 5,440 12,003
Mar-26 4,061 4,089 4,052 4,078 4,061 4,072 11 3,142 17,091
May-26 4,076 4,103 4,068 4,092 4,072 4,087 15 133 399
Corn
Turnover: 694,002 lots, or 16.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 2,376 2,380 2,368 2,372 2,378 2,374 -4 369,435 762,225
Sep-25 2,395 2,404 2,394 2,396 2,403 2,398 -5 253,928 672,748
Nov-25 2,312 2,316 2,305 2,306 2,318 2,311 -7 38,236 266,880
Jan-26 2,268 2,273 2,266 2,266 2,277 2,269 -8 21,146 86,071
Mar-26 2,264 2,264 2,257 2,259 2,269 2,260 -9 9,733 59,586
May-26 2,308 2,308 2,297 2,299 2,300 2,299 -1 1,524 7,063
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,788,394 lots, or 54.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 2,872 2,886 2,853 2,874 2,864 2,868 4 68,216 238,380
Aug-25 3,027 3,047 3,015 3,031 3,019 3,028 9 18,264 200,964
Sep-25 3,050 3,065 3,032 3,049 3,040 3,046 6 1,296,602 2,356,309
Nov-25 3,086 3,102 3,069 3,086 3,079 3,083 4 70,789 561,091
Dec-25 3,090 3,102 3,067 3,084 3,086 3,081 -5 17,450 105,082
Jan-26 3,069 3,078 3,045 3,062 3,064 3,060 -4 243,463 807,846
Mar-26 2,891 2,900 2,879 2,889 2,892 2,888 -4 25,665 183,517
May-26 2,733 2,739 2,720 2,730 2,733 2,728 -5 47,945 278,107
Palm Oil
Turnover: 578,513 lots, or 46.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-25 – – – 8,600 8,600 8,600 0 0 200
Jul-25 8,162 8,186 8,132 8,156 8,192 8,162 -30 5,626 9,015
Aug-25 8,078 8,124 8,066 8,094 8,114 8,090 -24 1,546 4,613
Sep-25 7,994 8,046 7,976 8,010 8,028 8,008 -20 543,908 412,207
Oct-25 7,946 8,004 7,946 7,974 7,982 7,976 -6 143 1,021
Nov-25 7,946 8,002 7,946 7,968 7,980 7,974 -6 75 877
Dec-25 7,958 8,008 7,954 7,984 7,990 7,984 -6 60 521
Jan-26 7,976 8,024 7,956 7,990 7,998 7,988 -10 26,733 109,785
Feb-26 7,964 7,998 7,956 7,998 7,992 7,970 -22 26 904
Mar-26 7,954 7,992 7,942 7,982 7,976 7,964 -12 76 229
Apr-26 7,942 7,960 7,922 7,950 7,970 7,944 -26 58 95
May-26 7,924 7,928 7,890 7,904 7,926 7,906 -20 262 1,207
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 280,640 lots, or 21.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 7,842 7,852 7,810 7,822 7,846 7,836 -10 6,135 30,419
Aug-25 7,760 7,772 7,734 7,740 7,786 7,756 -30 511 8,874
Sep-25 7,708 7,718 7,680 7,688 7,722 7,702 -20 238,752 559,414
Nov-25 7,714 7,720 7,686 7,694 7,714 7,704 -10 120 3,292
Dec-25 7,738 7,742 7,714 7,714 7,760 7,732 -28 39 1,697
Jan-26 7,666 7,672 7,638 7,644 7,672 7,654 -18 33,967 176,934
Mar-26 7,564 7,566 7,534 7,548 7,574 7,550 -24 62 944
May-26 7,406 7,410 7,386 7,394 7,410 7,400 -10 1,054 8,361
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322