Softs Report 06/11/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday. There are still reports of better weather for planting in Texas and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported moderate to poor weekly export sales. However, Gap stores reported strong earnings and said it would greatly increase its use of US Cotton in its clothing. Planting conditions remain good in Texas, but it is still too wet in the Delta and Southeast. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week, and farmers are in the fields. It has turned drier in the Delta and Southeast. Planting progress is now behind the five year average and condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is off to a good start and a good production there is possible. The Monsoon is paused right now but has featured early and above average rains so far.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 66.62 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 63.80, 62.10, and 60.80 July, with resistance of 66.80, 67.20 and 67.90 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday and trends are still mixed in the market. Trading has been choppy this week. Production estimates from USDA and private sources remain well below those from a year ago. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. A tight market and higher prices should remain a feature for futures traders.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 261.00, 248.00, and 236.00 July, with resistance at 304.00, 314.00, and 325.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets were lower. Prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting and is expected to be less this year, although maybe not as bad a originally feared.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 312.84 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 337.00, 324.00, and 318.00 July, and resistance is at 368.00, 376.00 and 379.00 July. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4290, 4230, and 4170 July, with resistance at 4620, 4720, and 4810 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower on ideas of good supplies for the market continue to be heard. China has been a buyer with cheaper prices to help provide some support. There were reports of drier weather in center south Brazil and the harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. The Monsoon has featur3ed above average rains. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners cud increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. Petrobras has cut gasoline prices this week for the first time since 2023 and ethanol production could be affected due to lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1620, 1590, and 1560 July and resistance is at 1680, 1710, and 1780 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 456.00, 450.00, and 444.00 August, with resistance at 478.00, 484.00, and 484.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed lower yesterday in speculative trading. A low has formed on the daily charts despite reports of increased availability of Cocoa to the market. There are still reports of increased flows of Cocoa from Nigeria and reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Early pod counts for the 2025/26 main crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production next season, but current weather is good for the crops. Trends are mixed to up in London and in New York.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 8940, 8800, and 8300 July, with resistance at 11970, 10410, and 11280 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 6140, 6040, and 5910 July, with resistance at 6980, 7290, and 7550 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322