Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with NFIB Business Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M., Redbook Y0Y at 7:55 A.M., 52-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., EIA Short Term Energy Outlook at 11:00 A.M., 3-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., abd API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.m.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now weekly GDP model continues to project a sharp jump in the US 2nd quarter GDP. This week’s update projected Q2 GDP at 3.8%, unchanged from last week but well above the fractionally negative Q1 figure. The sharp drop in net exports was the primary drag on Q1 as importers front-loaded imports ahead of expected tariff announcements. But the effects on GDP will be a 1 quarter event, with net exports to be a positive contributor of 2.04% to Q2 GDP. Consumer spending is expected to add 0.4%, and non-residential fixed investment is expected to add 0.26%. Private investors are projected to be the largest negative contributor of -0.56%, followed by residual investments that are expected to contribute -0.07 to Q2 GDP.
Weather Pattern Update
Pattern of Regular Precipitation/Normal Temps Extended into June 23rd:
The Central US has improved as widespread showers return to all but the far Western Plains beginning late this week. A rather active pattern of rain is forecast throughout the 4-14 day period. NOAA’s 8-14 day precipitation probability forecast is equally important rejuvenation in soil moisture works to keep temps at or near normal into the latter part of the month-maximum temps in NE, IA, IL, and IN into June 23rd will be capped in the low/mid-80’s. Ag Resources (ARC) reiterates that above normal precipitation in June very often foreshadows continued regular Corn Belt rainfall in July. Rain soaks IA, MN, and WI Fri-Sat. Lite but steady rain produces accumulation of 1-2”in the Dakotas, E NE, MN, IA, and the mid-South June 15-20. Two-week accumulation of 3+” favors IA, MN, WI, AR, TN, and KY. Note there will be no shortage of water as southern corn reaches peak pollination over the next 10 days.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Sheds Premium on Favorable US Weather, Falling Odds of Drought Development:
CBOT corn futures ended sharply lower as any lasting trend of Central US drying has been pushed back another two weeks. Weather concerns are now confined to parts of the Ukraine & southern Russia, and additional premium will be extracted if early July forecast lack a material pattern shift to heat/dryness. Already climate guidance is trending cooler in mid-summer following the recent jump in soil moisture. The US crop this week is rated at 71% GD/EX, vs. 68% on average and vs. 68% in late May. Brazilian fob premiums remain resilient in the face of rising production estimates. ARC suspects producer selling there today is limited amid strength in the Brazilian real and as safrinha harvesting has begun in Mato Grosso. But it’s US weather that dominates price discovery for another 45 days. Expect private yield estimates above USDA’s 181 BPA if prevailing weather trends are extended into early pollination. The outlook into Aug/Sep leans bearish amid the probable swelling of physical supplies in both Hemispheres. Sell $4.50+, Dec CBOT.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Plenty of Accumulation Forecasted. The Corn & Ethanol Report 06/10/2025
We kickoff the day with NFIB Business Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M., Redbook Y0Y at 7:55 A.M., 52-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., EIA Short Term Energy Outlook at 11:00 A.M., 3-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., abd API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.m.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now weekly GDP model continues to project a sharp jump in the US 2nd quarter GDP. This week’s update projected Q2 GDP at 3.8%, unchanged from last week but well above the fractionally negative Q1 figure. The sharp drop in net exports was the primary drag on Q1 as importers front-loaded imports ahead of expected tariff announcements. But the effects on GDP will be a 1 quarter event, with net exports to be a positive contributor of 2.04% to Q2 GDP. Consumer spending is expected to add 0.4%, and non-residential fixed investment is expected to add 0.26%. Private investors are projected to be the largest negative contributor of -0.56%, followed by residual investments that are expected to contribute -0.07 to Q2 GDP.
Weather Pattern Update
Pattern of Regular Precipitation/Normal Temps Extended into June 23rd:
The Central US has improved as widespread showers return to all but the far Western Plains beginning late this week. A rather active pattern of rain is forecast throughout the 4-14 day period. NOAA’s 8-14 day precipitation probability forecast is equally important rejuvenation in soil moisture works to keep temps at or near normal into the latter part of the month-maximum temps in NE, IA, IL, and IN into June 23rd will be capped in the low/mid-80’s. Ag Resources (ARC) reiterates that above normal precipitation in June very often foreshadows continued regular Corn Belt rainfall in July. Rain soaks IA, MN, and WI Fri-Sat. Lite but steady rain produces accumulation of 1-2”in the Dakotas, E NE, MN, IA, and the mid-South June 15-20. Two-week accumulation of 3+” favors IA, MN, WI, AR, TN, and KY. Note there will be no shortage of water as southern corn reaches peak pollination over the next 10 days.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Sheds Premium on Favorable US Weather, Falling Odds of Drought Development:
CBOT corn futures ended sharply lower as any lasting trend of Central US drying has been pushed back another two weeks. Weather concerns are now confined to parts of the Ukraine & southern Russia, and additional premium will be extracted if early July forecast lack a material pattern shift to heat/dryness. Already climate guidance is trending cooler in mid-summer following the recent jump in soil moisture. The US crop this week is rated at 71% GD/EX, vs. 68% on average and vs. 68% in late May. Brazilian fob premiums remain resilient in the face of rising production estimates. ARC suspects producer selling there today is limited amid strength in the Brazilian real and as safrinha harvesting has begun in Mato Grosso. But it’s US weather that dominates price discovery for another 45 days. Expect private yield estimates above USDA’s 181 BPA if prevailing weather trends are extended into early pollination. The outlook into Aug/Sep leans bearish amid the probable swelling of physical supplies in both Hemispheres. Sell $4.50+, Dec CBOT.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374