Softs Report 06/09/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher on Friday and for the week on some positive economic data released by the US. Forecasts for a major rain event for Texas next week are still around to limit upside potential. There are still reports of better weather for planting in Texas and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported moderate to poor weekly export sales. However, Gap stores reported strong earnings and said it would greatly increase its use of US Cotton in its clothing. Planting conditions remain good in Texas, but it is still too wet in the Delta and Southeast. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week, and farmers are in the fields. It has turned drier in the Delta and Southeast. Planting progress is now behind the five year average and condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is off to a good start and a good production there is possible. The Monsoon is paused right now but has featured early and above average rains so far.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 66.52 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 63.80, 62.10, and 60.80 July, with resistance of 66.80, 67.20 and 67.90 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 03, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 285,027
: Positions :
: 24,842 86,778 75,299 87,809 86,769 83,513 22,409 271,464 271,255: 13,563 13,772
: Changes from: May 27, 2025 (Change in open interest: 4,090) :
: -1,081 1,628 3,102 470 -3,279 1,752 3,631 4,244 5,083: -154 -992
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.7 30.4 26.4 30.8 30.4 29.3 7.9 95.2 95.2: 4.8 4.8
: Total Traders: 319 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 108 100 76 64 42 25 253 245:
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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were about unchanged last week and trends are still mixed in the market. Trading has been choppy this week. Production estimates from USDA and private sources remain well below those from a year ago. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. A tight market and higher prices should remain a feature for futures traders.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up. Support is at 261.00, 248.00, and 236.00 July, with resistance at 304.00, 314.00, and 325.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 3, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,147 :
: Positions :
: 3,272 6,242 448 0 238 1,971 1,323 112 2,039 45 2,485 :
: Changes from: May 27, 2025 :
: -1 101 19 0 15 -10 -123 76 -131 -6 20 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 26.9 51.4 3.7 0.0 2.0 16.2 10.9 0.9 16.8 0.4 20.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 43 :
: 8 9 . 0 . 5 7 . 8 6 8 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York was higher and London was lower last week. However, a big rally was seen on Friday that failed, and this could be an indication of a top. Prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting and is expected to be less this year, although maybe not as bad a originally feared. Colombia produced 819,000 60-kg bags of washed arabica coffee in May, down 27% from 1,120,000 bags in 2024, the National Coffee Federation said. Vietnam exported 813,000 tons of coffee in the January-May period, down 1.8% from last year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 317.41 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 337.00, 324.00, and 318.00 July, and resistance is at 368.00, 376.00 and 379.00 July. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4290, 4230, and 4170 July, with resistance at 4620, 4720, and 4810 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 03, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 199,133
: Positions :
: 31,725 10,013 61,934 55,575 109,261 40,615 10,681 189,849 191,888: 9,284 7,245
: Changes from: May 27, 2025 (Change in open interest: 8,749) :
: -1,159 706 6,073 4,747 -144 -1,976 1,249 7,685 7,884: 1,064 865
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.9 5.0 31.1 27.9 54.9 20.4 5.4 95.3 96.4: 4.7 3.6
: Total Traders: 344 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 98 75 119 91 106 45 20 290 273:
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SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower last week as ideas of good supplies for the market continue to be heard. China has been a buyer with cheaper prices to help provide some support. There were reports of drier weather in center south Brazil and the harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. The Monsoon has featur3ed above average rains. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners cud increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. Petrobras has cut gasoline prices this week for the first time since 2023 and ethanol production could be affected due to lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1620, 1590, and 1560 July and resistance is at 1680, 1710, and 1780 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 456.00, 450.00, and 444.00 August, with resistance at 469.00, 478.00, and 484.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 03, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,016,713
: Positions :
: 116,605 190,808 237,137 359,086 450,230 239,772 67,829 952,599 946,004: 64,114 70,709
: Changes from: May 27, 2025 (Change in open interest: 59,656) :
: 3,751 22,739 33,950 15,438 -5,698 6,814 8,627 59,953 59,618: -297 38
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.5 18.8 23.3 35.3 44.3 23.6 6.7 93.7 93.0: 6.3 7.0
: Total Traders: 246 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 60 80 73 69 34 17 212 188:
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COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed higher last week in speculative trading and a low has formed on the daily charts despite reports of increased availability of Cocoa to the market. There are still reports of increased flows of Cocoa from Nigeria and reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Early pod counts for the 2025/26 main crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production next season, but current weather is good for the crops. Trends are mixed to up in London and in New York.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 8940, 8800, and 8300 July, with resistance at 11970, 10410, and 11280 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 6140, 6040, and 5910 July, with resistance at 6660, 6980, and 7290 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 03, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 131,020
: Positions :
: 18,728 11,775 41,035 40,102 62,064 19,118 10,144 118,983 125,018: 12,037 6,002
: Changes from: May 27, 2025 (Change in open interest: -2,038) :
: -2,202 101 -1,676 155 -158 645 -212 -3,078 -1,944: 1,040 -94
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.3 9.0 31.3 30.6 47.4 14.6 7.7 90.8 95.4: 9.2 4.6
: Total Traders: 161 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 53 37 60 33 33 30 17 144 121:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322