This week was full of uncertainty. The Wednesday federal trade court ruling against the White House led to a stay from an appellate court on Thursday. That leaves a major piece of the President’s trade policy in limbo, as it is likely headed to the Supreme Court. While some of the old crop demand is set, the focus is shifting to new crop. Planting is pretty much over, with exception to some places. That leaves us with the yield story. We got initial ratings for corn on Tuesday, which led us to a 374 rating on the Brugler500 index. Last time I checked, you had better odds of hitting the bullseye blindfolded vs. getting accurate yield estimates in the last week of May. For note, 2012 was 387, while the deviation from trend yield was -22%. Just compare that to the 1994 initial rating at 388 and a deviation from trend yield at +15%. Talk about uncertainty!
Corn failed to see much strength on the short week, with July falling back 15 ½ cents and December slipping back 12 ¼ cents. The break in prices has attracted some export business, with a total of 415,656 MT reported via daily announcements. Weekly Crop Progress data indicated 87% of the US corn crop planted as of May 25, still ahead of the 5-year average. NASS pegged ratings at 68% good or excellent, with a 374 score on the Brugler500 index. EIA showed ethanol production back up 20,000 barrels per day to 1.056 million bpd in the week of 5/23. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of 663,000 barrels to 24.281 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 916,712 MT for the week that ended on May 22. That brought the total export commitments to 64.196 MMT, which is 97% of the USDA full-year export forecast and matching the 5-year average pace for this week. New crop sales were 31,000 MT. Friday’s CFTC report showed spec funds trimming back their net short in corn futures and options by a slight 2,450 contracts to a net -100,760 contracts by May 27.
The wheat complex was mixed this week as the spring wheat market held things up. MPLS futures were 19 cents higher (+3.13%) on the week. Chicago SRW saw a loss of 8 ½ cents (-1.57%) for July this week. July Kansas City was back down 5 1/2 cents (-1.02%). Crop Progress data from Tuesday a total of 87% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of 5/18, vs. the 5-year average pace of 80%. Initial ratings were well below estimates at 45% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 326. Winter wheat ratings were tallied at 50% good/excellent, down 2%, with the Brugler500 index down 4 points to 332. The weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2024/25 business at net reductions of 128,797 MT in the week of 5/22. Bookings for the 2025/26 crop were at 711,368 MT. Commitment of Traders data showed specs covering some of their large net short position in CBT wheat futures and options by 7,667 contracts as of Tuesday to 101,226 contracts. In KC wheat, they cut back 801 contracts from their large net short to 79,361 contracts during the week of May 27.
Soybeans were under pressure this week, with July falling back 18 ½ cents and November down 23 3/4 cents. July soybean meal held up, with a dime gain. Bean oil was the pressure spot for the complex this week, down 246 points. Reports suggest that the White House is looking to address the backlog of small refinery exemptions, which pressured the RIN market lower. USDA’s Crop Progress report tallied 76% of the US soybean crop was planted as of 5/25, still ahead of the 5-year average pace. Emergence was pegged at 50%. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to 146,034 MT in the week of May 22. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 48.46 MMT. That is 96% of USDA’s export projection for the marketing year, 3 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. Commitment of Traders data showed money managers in soybean futures and options adding back 24,043 contracts to their net long as of Tuesday, to a net long of 36,697 contracts.
Live cattle slipped back this week despite the cash strength, as June down 32 cents. The cash market saw another round of stronger trade this week, with southern sales mainly at $221-223 (+$2-3) and northern trade at $234-237 (+$4-6). Feeders also saw weaker trade this week, with August down $1.55. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $3.84 week/week to $299.30. Wholesale boxed beef prices continued to push high this week. Choice was up $4.79 (1.3%) to $366.34, while Select was $5.33 higher (+1.5%) to $356.65. Weekly beef production was down 9.4% from the same week last year at 414.8 million lbs this week. Year to date beef production is now down 2.9%, as slaughter is 6.3% lower. USDA Export Sales data showed 14,695 MT of beef sold in the week of May 22, a 6-week high. Export Shipments were back down to 12,644 MT. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money in live cattle futures and options trimming back 1,271 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday to 131,293 contracts. Spec traders cut back from their net long in feeder cattle futures and options by 714 contracts to 33,258 contracts by May 27.
Hogs held higher this week, rebounding back above the $100 level, up $3.02 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.38 this week at $94.13 as of May 28. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout shot up $5.76 on the 4-day week (5.7%) to $107.22/cwt. All primals were reported higher, with the belly leading the charge, up $12.39. Pork production was down 0.3% from the same holiday week a year ago at 466.7 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 1.7%, as slaughter is 2.0% lower. Export Sales of pork totaled 30,490 MT in the week of May 22, back down from the week prior. Shipments were tallied at a 6-week high of 28,893 MT. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 2,796 contracts to their large net long position as of 5/27 to a net position of 94,540 contracts.
Cotton futures posted a 105 point loss this week in the July contracts, with December down 87 points. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 52% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, behind the 56% pace from the 5-year average. Export Sales data showed a total of 118,658 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on May 22. Shipments bounced back to 275,379 RB. Upland cotton commitments are 11.416 million RB, 110% of the USDA export forecast and slightly behind the 111% average pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 32 points higher this week, to 53.84 cents/lb. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds adding back another 3,180 contracts to their net short position as of May 27 to 43,21 contracts.
Market Watch
Next Monday will be busy from the USDA perspective, with the weekly Export Inspections in the morning and Crop Progress report out that afternoon. NASS will also release the Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems reports. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released on Wednesday per normal, with the Export Sales report out on Thursday morning. Monthly Census data will be released on Thursday morning. June Live Cattle options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans had a rather ugly week. After giving a valiant effort at taking out the 10.75 ¾ high form February the bears took over. Friday’s action failed at the 38.2% Fib retracement support of $10.29 ¼, with the 40-day moving average support at $10.28 ¾ failing at the close. With a 2/3 speedline support at $10.18, there isn’t much until the 61.8% support at $10.07. Stochastics are stuck in neutral, with a bearish bias. MACD just flipped bearish, though ADX at 13 suggests a look at the neutral stochastics.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Uncertainty. Ag Marketing Report 06/02/2025
This week was full of uncertainty. The Wednesday federal trade court ruling against the White House led to a stay from an appellate court on Thursday. That leaves a major piece of the President’s trade policy in limbo, as it is likely headed to the Supreme Court. While some of the old crop demand is set, the focus is shifting to new crop. Planting is pretty much over, with exception to some places. That leaves us with the yield story. We got initial ratings for corn on Tuesday, which led us to a 374 rating on the Brugler500 index. Last time I checked, you had better odds of hitting the bullseye blindfolded vs. getting accurate yield estimates in the last week of May. For note, 2012 was 387, while the deviation from trend yield was -22%. Just compare that to the 1994 initial rating at 388 and a deviation from trend yield at +15%. Talk about uncertainty!
Corn failed to see much strength on the short week, with July falling back 15 ½ cents and December slipping back 12 ¼ cents. The break in prices has attracted some export business, with a total of 415,656 MT reported via daily announcements. Weekly Crop Progress data indicated 87% of the US corn crop planted as of May 25, still ahead of the 5-year average. NASS pegged ratings at 68% good or excellent, with a 374 score on the Brugler500 index. EIA showed ethanol production back up 20,000 barrels per day to 1.056 million bpd in the week of 5/23. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of 663,000 barrels to 24.281 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 916,712 MT for the week that ended on May 22. That brought the total export commitments to 64.196 MMT, which is 97% of the USDA full-year export forecast and matching the 5-year average pace for this week. New crop sales were 31,000 MT. Friday’s CFTC report showed spec funds trimming back their net short in corn futures and options by a slight 2,450 contracts to a net -100,760 contracts by May 27.
The wheat complex was mixed this week as the spring wheat market held things up. MPLS futures were 19 cents higher (+3.13%) on the week. Chicago SRW saw a loss of 8 ½ cents (-1.57%) for July this week. July Kansas City was back down 5 1/2 cents (-1.02%). Crop Progress data from Tuesday a total of 87% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of 5/18, vs. the 5-year average pace of 80%. Initial ratings were well below estimates at 45% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 326. Winter wheat ratings were tallied at 50% good/excellent, down 2%, with the Brugler500 index down 4 points to 332. The weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2024/25 business at net reductions of 128,797 MT in the week of 5/22. Bookings for the 2025/26 crop were at 711,368 MT. Commitment of Traders data showed specs covering some of their large net short position in CBT wheat futures and options by 7,667 contracts as of Tuesday to 101,226 contracts. In KC wheat, they cut back 801 contracts from their large net short to 79,361 contracts during the week of May 27.
Soybeans were under pressure this week, with July falling back 18 ½ cents and November down 23 3/4 cents. July soybean meal held up, with a dime gain. Bean oil was the pressure spot for the complex this week, down 246 points. Reports suggest that the White House is looking to address the backlog of small refinery exemptions, which pressured the RIN market lower. USDA’s Crop Progress report tallied 76% of the US soybean crop was planted as of 5/25, still ahead of the 5-year average pace. Emergence was pegged at 50%. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to 146,034 MT in the week of May 22. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 48.46 MMT. That is 96% of USDA’s export projection for the marketing year, 3 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. Commitment of Traders data showed money managers in soybean futures and options adding back 24,043 contracts to their net long as of Tuesday, to a net long of 36,697 contracts.
Live cattle slipped back this week despite the cash strength, as June down 32 cents. The cash market saw another round of stronger trade this week, with southern sales mainly at $221-223 (+$2-3) and northern trade at $234-237 (+$4-6). Feeders also saw weaker trade this week, with August down $1.55. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $3.84 week/week to $299.30. Wholesale boxed beef prices continued to push high this week. Choice was up $4.79 (1.3%) to $366.34, while Select was $5.33 higher (+1.5%) to $356.65. Weekly beef production was down 9.4% from the same week last year at 414.8 million lbs this week. Year to date beef production is now down 2.9%, as slaughter is 6.3% lower. USDA Export Sales data showed 14,695 MT of beef sold in the week of May 22, a 6-week high. Export Shipments were back down to 12,644 MT. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money in live cattle futures and options trimming back 1,271 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday to 131,293 contracts. Spec traders cut back from their net long in feeder cattle futures and options by 714 contracts to 33,258 contracts by May 27.
Hogs held higher this week, rebounding back above the $100 level, up $3.02 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.38 this week at $94.13 as of May 28. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout shot up $5.76 on the 4-day week (5.7%) to $107.22/cwt. All primals were reported higher, with the belly leading the charge, up $12.39. Pork production was down 0.3% from the same holiday week a year ago at 466.7 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 1.7%, as slaughter is 2.0% lower. Export Sales of pork totaled 30,490 MT in the week of May 22, back down from the week prior. Shipments were tallied at a 6-week high of 28,893 MT. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 2,796 contracts to their large net long position as of 5/27 to a net position of 94,540 contracts.
Cotton futures posted a 105 point loss this week in the July contracts, with December down 87 points. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 52% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, behind the 56% pace from the 5-year average. Export Sales data showed a total of 118,658 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on May 22. Shipments bounced back to 275,379 RB. Upland cotton commitments are 11.416 million RB, 110% of the USDA export forecast and slightly behind the 111% average pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 32 points higher this week, to 53.84 cents/lb. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds adding back another 3,180 contracts to their net short position as of May 27 to 43,21 contracts.
Market Watch
Next Monday will be busy from the USDA perspective, with the weekly Export Inspections in the morning and Crop Progress report out that afternoon. NASS will also release the Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems reports. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released on Wednesday per normal, with the Export Sales report out on Thursday morning. Monthly Census data will be released on Thursday morning. June Live Cattle options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans had a rather ugly week. After giving a valiant effort at taking out the 10.75 ¾ high form February the bears took over. Friday’s action failed at the 38.2% Fib retracement support of $10.29 ¼, with the 40-day moving average support at $10.28 ¾ failing at the close. With a 2/3 speedline support at $10.18, there isn’t much until the 61.8% support at $10.07. Stochastics are stuck in neutral, with a bearish bias. MACD just flipped bearish, though ADX at 13 suggests a look at the neutral stochastics.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.