Rewrite The Headlines. The Energy Report 06/02/2025

News reports seemed to suggest that when OPEC+ agreed to increase oil output by 411,000 barrels a day in July, it would cause the oil market to sell off. Yet headlines changed after the opening. Instead, oil rallied as some traders realized they had been had by reports of OPEC + infighting and unnamed sourced stories that OPEC would raise production by more than the already signed amount. In other words, the market was pricing a much larger production cut than they got as unnamed sources and unsubstantiated rumors proved to not be true.

The petroleum market remains tight, and some markets may return to this situation. Late reports suggest the Trump Administration might lift sanctions on Iran, which could reduce speculative activity amid geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine after Ukraine’s recent attack. Yet with a tight oil market and geopolitical risk flaring up, the shorts are covering. Calling it Russia’s Pearl Harbor moment, the Wall Street Journal reported that, “Ukraine’s unprecedented drone strikes on Russian air force bases weaken Moscow’s ability to wage war on its smaller neighbor and undermine its capacity to more distant rivals such as the U.S.—a shift with potentially far-reaching geostrategic implications. The Journal reported that, “A sizable portion of the fleet Moscow uses to launch guided-missile attacks on Ukraine—and would rely on to strike adversaries in the event of a nuclear war—was damaged or destroyed in the coordinated attacks.

Reuters said that the attack, dubbed “Spider’s Web,” took a year and a half to prepare, officials at Ukraine’s intelligence agency said. The bombardment is a significant victory for Ukraine’s deep-strike program, which uses drones to target crucial material on Russia’s soil. Russia announced an emergency meeting and will come out with an announcement later today, as Russia de-facto lost the war.

This comes as the US put more sanctions on Russia. Apparently India is complaining that U.S. sanctions could hinder India’s crude imports causing shortages and higher prices in the Indian oil market if there are more signs of the Trump Administration cracking down at Russia.

Tanker Trackers reported that over the weekend, a Russian tanker laden with nearly 700K barrels of oil had to return to Russia after spending nearly 4.5 months out at sea. The ship was unable to deliver because both the US and EU had slapped her with sanctions shortly after departing in January for India.

Bloomberg News reports that the Trump Administration is moving to repeal Biden-era curbs blocking oil drilling across most of the mammoth petroleum reserve in Alaska that’s home to an estimated 8.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum announced the planned policy shift late Sunday at a town hall in Utqiagvik, a village on the Chukchi Sea coast, as he and fellow members of President Donald Trump’s cabinet visit Alaska to promote energy development in the region.

The measure would open up new opportunities for oil and gas development in the 23-million-acre National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, an Indiana-sized parcel in the northwest of the state that was set aside as a source of energy for the Navy a century ago.

It is the month of June and according to the Fox Weather it’s also time to get prepared for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.

ANZ analysts note a weekly increase in gasoline demand due to the driving season, with tight fuel inventories and hurricane risks unsettling the oil market.

If you want to get the names this year the hurricanes, they are going to be Andrea, Barry, Chantelle, Dexter, Erin, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastian, Tanya, Van and Wendy.

Natural gas is also turning the corner as hurricane risk rises and we’re starting to move closer to the summer cooling season. We’re also going to see a big surge in LNG exports and it appears that the Freeport LNG export terminal is back online that into further gains.

As we go into the hurricane season, it’s more important than ever to download the Fox Weather app so you can keep up with the latest market moving news. Also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network invested in you.

It’s time to call to get the Phil Flynn Daily Trade Levels and to open your account by calling me at 888-264-5665 or by emailing me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.