Grains Report 06/02/2025

WHEAT
General Comments: Chicago Winter Wheat markets closed lower last week on forecasts for improved growing conditions at home and abroad. Minneapolis was higher as growing conditions are more suspect in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. There are still reports that cold weather had created frosts in Ukraine and Russia and reports of dry weather in some parts of the EU and China, but these are forecast to change in the short term. Russia is forecasting a large reduction in Wheat production for the coming year. Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, but Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada have been dry. Some rain was seen in the northern Great Plains last week and wetter and warmer conditions are now forecast. It is too wet in the Delta and Southeast. Chart trends are turning down. Overall demand for world Wheat has been weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down Support is at 520, 506 and 500 July, with resistance at 545, 556, and 561 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 514, 500, and 494 July, with resistance at 548, 557, and 563 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up. Support is at 608, 596, and 590 July, and resistance is at 627, 631, and 640 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 27, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 534,796
: Positions :
: 59,741 153,906 174,878 118,943 66,863 140,768 103,651 494,330 499,298: 40,466 35,498
: Changes from: May 20, 2025 (Change in open interest: -14,800) :
: -8,086 -13,209 -8,525 -4,638 894 5,732 7,685 -15,517 -13,155: 717 -1,645
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.2 28.8 32.7 22.2 12.5 26.3 19.4 92.4 93.4: 7.6 6.6
: Total Traders: 378 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 92 107 122 105 92 46 30 308 293:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 27, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 314,372
: Positions :
: 25,563 99,224 81,273 89,070 72,485 95,224 40,907 291,131 293,889: 23,241 20,483
: Changes from: May 20, 2025 (Change in open interest: -7,605) :
: -2,943 -2,897 -7,154 3,161 732 327 1,303 -6,610 -8,017: -995 412
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.1 31.6 25.9 28.3 23.1 30.3 13.0 92.6 93.5: 7.4 6.5
: Total Traders: 257 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 49 70 67 85 66 36 20 210 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 27, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 84,360 :
: Positions :
: 43,858 21,635 3,757 1,186 859 11,475 41,993 4,908 3,272 1,035 4,451 :
: Changes from: May 20, 2025 :
: -843 3,335 -372 502 -72 2,472 -1,150 -564 1,063 -1,018 985 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 52.0 25.6 4.5 1.4 1.0 13.6 49.8 5.8 3.9 1.2 5.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 126 :
: 55 40 6 . 6 16 24 11 5 10 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher last week and chart trends remain up on the weekly charts. The trends are up on the daily charts, with specuolative short covering the main feature. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is planted in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good so far by private sources and USDA.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1319, 1282, and 1261 July and resistance is at 1369, 1402, and 1410 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 27, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 11,915 :
: Positions :
: 5,825 1,840 0 139 0 514 5,921 162 1,576 498 1,232 :
: Changes from: May 20, 2025 :
: -688 88 0 -9 0 3 -625 72 81 -327 -478 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 48.9 15.4 0.0 1.2 0.0 4.3 49.7 1.4 13.2 4.2 10.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 70 :
: 20 16 0 . 0 . 20 . 14 5 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower last week, with forecasts for improved growing conditions in the Midwest next week the main reason for the selling. Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast for this week after a cold week last week. A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and modeerate crought extends east in a corredor into the Chicago area. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 443, 437, and 434 July, and resistance is at 456, 465, and 470 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 348, 341, and 336 July, and resistance is at 384, 390, and 396 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 27, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,115,814
: Positions :
: 101,130 317,288 662,387 684,374 775,588 480,080 153,590 1,927,971 1,908,852: 187,843 206,961
: Changes from: May 20, 2025 (Change in open interest: -37,657) :
: -15,091 11,268 -11,111 -4,249 -23,639 -2,466 -15,862 -32,916 -39,344: -4,741 1,687
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 4.8 15.0 31.3 32.3 36.7 22.7 7.3 91.1 90.2: 8.9 9.8
: Total Traders: 813 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 133 142 208 384 399 48 27 687 669:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower last week on forecasts for good growing conditions in the Midwest. Soybean Meal was higher and Soybean Oil was lower as it is now doubtful that the biofuels allocations will be released soon and weaivers to small producers could mean reduced demand forethanol or biofuels in the US.. The market could remain under pressure as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Warmer temperatures and drier conditions are expected this week after a cold and wet week last week. A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and modeerate crought extends east in a corredor into the Chicago area. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1040, 1037, and 1028 July, and resistance is at 1082, 1088, and 1105 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 290.00, 287.00, and 284.00 July, and resistance is at 300.00, 302.00, and 306.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4610, 4530, and 4430 July, with resistance at 4800, 4900, and 5030 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 27, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,052,306
: Positions :
: 102,617 104,926 317,390 357,630 507,085 215,455 54,613 993,092 984,014: 59,214 68,293
: Changes from: May 20, 2025 (Change in open interest: -14,638) :
: 7,620 -8,944 -26,971 2,936 24,636 1,209 -1,764 -15,207 -13,042: 569 -1,596
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8 10.0 30.2 34.0 48.2 20.5 5.2 94.4 93.5: 5.6 6.5
: Total Traders: 565 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 133 124 186 183 218 48 26 467 463:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 27, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 673,852
: Positions :
: 86,002 83,925 188,975 196,612 338,429 167,148 36,335 638,737 647,665: 35,115 26,188
: Changes from: May 20, 2025 (Change in open interest: -5,750) :
: -341 -1,485 -6,636 2,032 -2,840 -1,559 6,025 -6,505 -4,936: 755 -814
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.8 12.5 28.0 29.2 50.2 24.8 5.4 94.8 96.1: 5.2 3.9
: Total Traders: 359 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 90 82 113 105 109 45 21 300 275:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 27, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 657,435
: Positions :
: 69,066 152,158 166,725 240,397 258,177 120,905 46,386 597,092 623,446: 60,343 33,989
: Changes from: May 20, 2025 (Change in open interest: -6,300) :
: 6,271 -8,173 -1,487 -10,229 2,092 -1,272 400 -6,717 -7,169: 417 869
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.5 23.1 25.4 36.6 39.3 18.4 7.1 90.8 94.8: 9.2 5.2
: Total Traders: 354 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 73 90 93 122 114 38 20 286 271:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher last week on reports of good demand from the private surveyors. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Ideas of increasing production and reduced demand are also heard. The Ringgit was stronger to help limit gains. Chart trends are down. Canola was lower last week after making new highs for the move. Trends are up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been good for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 699.00, 686.00, and 680.00 July, with resistance at 735.00, 738.00, and 744.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 3770, 3710, and 3650 August, with resistance at 3990, 4040, and 4130 August.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 27, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 18,354 :
: Positions :
: 12,850 7,845 322 6,454 450 259 0 621 1,552 724 2,240 :
: Changes from: May 20, 2025 :
: 534 -389 0 1,013 30 0 0 0 -150 -240 120 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 70.0 42.7 1.8 35.2 2.5 1.4 0.0 3.4 8.5 3.9 12.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 26 :
: 8 9 . 5 . . 0 . . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 27, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 278,248 :
: Positions :
: 82,513 181,597 9,451 14,041 2,218 127,991 21,008 18,485 13,307 16,295 22,357 :
: Changes from: May 20, 2025 :
: -7,449 10,726 1,598 1,329 79 14,690 -2,289 440 1,606 227 3,033 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.7 65.3 3.4 5.0 0.8 46.0 7.6 6.6 4.8 5.9 8.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 334 :
: 37 65 6 4 5 86 12 18 63 83 42 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322