Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final at 8:45 A.M., ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment, Construction Spending MoM, ISM Manufacturing New Orders, and ISM Manufacturing Prices at 9:00 A.M., Fed Logan Speech at 9:15 A.M., Exports Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Goolsbee Speech at 11:45 A.M., Cotton System, Fats & Oils, and Grain Crushings at 2:00 P.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The Commitment of Traders Report a showed a week of buying in the ag markets for the week ending May 27. Fund liquidated positions in the soybean oil, live cattle, and feeder cattle markets. Funds covered short positions in corn, soybean meal, and in the wheat on all 3 exchanges. Additionally, funds added to net long position in soybean and hog markets. The largest net long position of 131,293 contracts in live cattle, and the largest net short position of 101,225 contracts in the Chi wheat market. However, funds are net short 211,105 contracts in all three exchanges. For the week, funds were net buyers of 49,754 contracts across the 10 principal ag markets to 55,874.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
The Central US Forecast Wet Next Two Weeks:
The Central US remains consistent in calling for widespread heavy showers from June 4th to June 14th , and overall outlook remains favorable. Fieldwork/planting will be allowed to resume planting this weekend, and newly planted fields will be well watered. The GFS ensemble model’s two-week precipitation and temperatures anomaly forecast shows arrival of warmth to the northern and eastern corn belt is welcomed. Two week precipitation accumulation is projecred upward of 2-4”, with local heavier totals favor MO, southern IL, southern IN, and KY. The return of sunshine will be desired thereafter but odds of drought development prior to mid-summer remain low. However, winter wheat will be exposed to harvest delays and quality issues. ARC doubts winter wheat harvesting begins in full swing until the second half of June.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Extends Correction; Export Sales Slow:
July CBOT corn ended weak for the third day – Dec CBOT for a 6th – as the market continues its normal transition focus from old crop to new. Ag Resources (ARC) weakness is typical beginning late spring, and it’s the potential for larger Brazilian exports that collides with current absence of US weather threats. Be prepared to add forward hedges on rallies. ARC fears a deeper correction lies ahead in early summer. US export sales ending May 22nd totaled 36 Mil Bu., a 7-week low. USDA must raise its annual forecast by 50-100 Mil Bu. Old crop supplies will not be abundant in Jul-Aug. However, the withdrawal of importer demand from the US accelerates moving forward amid competitively price Argentine origin and as the market knows Brazil’s surplus will be available in 90 days. Weather and US trade policy input this week leaned bearish. ARC maintains Dec struggles to exceed $4.50-$4.55 without meaningful weather threats.
Deeper Corn Correction Probable. The Corn & Ethanol Report 06/02/2025
We kickoff the day with S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final at 8:45 A.M., ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment, Construction Spending MoM, ISM Manufacturing New Orders, and ISM Manufacturing Prices at 9:00 A.M., Fed Logan Speech at 9:15 A.M., Exports Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Goolsbee Speech at 11:45 A.M., Cotton System, Fats & Oils, and Grain Crushings at 2:00 P.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The Commitment of Traders Report a showed a week of buying in the ag markets for the week ending May 27. Fund liquidated positions in the soybean oil, live cattle, and feeder cattle markets. Funds covered short positions in corn, soybean meal, and in the wheat on all 3 exchanges. Additionally, funds added to net long position in soybean and hog markets. The largest net long position of 131,293 contracts in live cattle, and the largest net short position of 101,225 contracts in the Chi wheat market. However, funds are net short 211,105 contracts in all three exchanges. For the week, funds were net buyers of 49,754 contracts across the 10 principal ag markets to 55,874.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
The Central US Forecast Wet Next Two Weeks:
The Central US remains consistent in calling for widespread heavy showers from June 4th to June 14th , and overall outlook remains favorable. Fieldwork/planting will be allowed to resume planting this weekend, and newly planted fields will be well watered. The GFS ensemble model’s two-week precipitation and temperatures anomaly forecast shows arrival of warmth to the northern and eastern corn belt is welcomed. Two week precipitation accumulation is projecred upward of 2-4”, with local heavier totals favor MO, southern IL, southern IN, and KY. The return of sunshine will be desired thereafter but odds of drought development prior to mid-summer remain low. However, winter wheat will be exposed to harvest delays and quality issues. ARC doubts winter wheat harvesting begins in full swing until the second half of June.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Extends Correction; Export Sales Slow:
July CBOT corn ended weak for the third day – Dec CBOT for a 6th – as the market continues its normal transition focus from old crop to new. Ag Resources (ARC) weakness is typical beginning late spring, and it’s the potential for larger Brazilian exports that collides with current absence of US weather threats. Be prepared to add forward hedges on rallies. ARC fears a deeper correction lies ahead in early summer. US export sales ending May 22nd totaled 36 Mil Bu., a 7-week low. USDA must raise its annual forecast by 50-100 Mil Bu. Old crop supplies will not be abundant in Jul-Aug. However, the withdrawal of importer demand from the US accelerates moving forward amid competitively price Argentine origin and as the market knows Brazil’s surplus will be available in 90 days. Weather and US trade policy input this week leaned bearish. ARC maintains Dec struggles to exceed $4.50-$4.55 without meaningful weather threats.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374