AgMaster Report – 05/28/2025

JULY CORN

Following the 60 cent break since April, July Corn has rallied 30 cent off consistently strong exports – 1.4mmt on Thur & 1.7mmt on Mon! Weather has been good & today’s planting report is predicted to show an early gd-ex crop rating of 75% & corn 85-87% planted (85-avg).  Trade deals with our trading partners are pending – & over the W/E Trump delayed tariffs announced on Friday against the EU until July 9^th! It seems he’s using the tariffs as a “bargaining chip” to expedite negotiations for trading deals! Once again, there is no weather premium in this mkt with a long way to go before the crop is made!

 

JULY BEANS

July Beans have been locked into a 30 cent trading range since early April but lately with an upward bias! China’s absence has limited rallies but other nations have stepped up! Over the W/E. President Trump suspended threatened tariff sanctions against the EU & there was positive news on the biodiesel demand front as RVO legislation may soon pass! Acres are slightly under 2024 & beans are 77% planted (avg – 69)! Today the products – meal & oil – are supporting beans! The mkt – like corn – has no weather premium – built in – & the US-China deal should be resolved soon! Overall, the bean mkt’s ability to hold 60 cents off its 2025 year’s lows -despite China’s absence from the export mkt  – demonstrates strong bullish divergence!

 

JULY WHT

Significant rains in the southern & southwestern Plains over the W/E plus forecast precip for China’s dry northern plains have forced a 50% retracement in July Wht’s mid-May rally! The break should bring in some solid demand & a weaker dollar should facilitate that buying! Wht at current levels is very competitive on the global mkt!

 

JUNE CAT

The jury is still out as to whether June Cat has finally topped out is just correcting! The June Cattle-on-Feed Report issued Friday didn’t really shed any new light on the mkt – as it came out mostly neutral – placements – 97.4 (97.5) – marketings 97.5 (96.7) & total on-feed 98.5 (98.6)! The current Grilling Season – the best demand of the year – is providing significant tailwinds while the record level amidst recession/inflation fears is providing resistance on rallies!

 

JUNE HOGS

While June Cat have rallied $20 since mid-April, June Hogs have languished in a $4.00 range (98-102) – surprising in that pork has the economic advantage over beef in the supermarket! However, today the contract is up .50 off a positive 600-plus DJI & a friendly cold-storage report! The Spring Barbecue Season is upon us & is providing underlying support to the pork mkt!

 

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