Softs Report 05/27/2025

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-May 23
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 59.582 million pounds, in April, 9.2% above the previous
month, and 22.3% below April 2024, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Friday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Apr 30 Mar 31 Apr 30 Mar 31 warehouse
2025 2025 2024 2024 stocks/Apr
pork bellies 59,582 54,538 76,692 74,509
orange juice 264,294 266,366 282,360 256,580
french fries 945,888 968,997 968,432 983,176
other potatoes 227,281 238,774 239,257 243,991
chicken rstr (whole) 10,236 9,454 11,074 11,488
ham 87,877 62,231 94,952 70,288
total pork 455,803 409,464 499,308 463,087 407,560
total beef 418,147 425,173 426,368 423,909 412,497
total red meat 893,577 854,094 949,624 910,122 839,631
total chicken 755,327 772,773 740,148 763,523
total turkey 318,783 303,402 390,482 357,766
total poultry 1,075,642 1,077,508 1,134,199 1,123,982 994,987
===============================================================================

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher last week after a week of choppy trading. Slower than expected planting progress shown in the USDA reports released last week and the reports should show slower progress this week as well. The weekly export sales report showed below average demand. There are still reports of better weather for planting in the southern US and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported poor weekly export sales. Planting conditions remain good. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week, and farmers are in the fields. More showers are in the forecast for the Great Plains. It has turned drier in the Delta and Southeast. Planting progress is now behind the five year average and conditions of the crops should be good.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 67.27 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 63.80, 62.10, and 60.80 July, with resistance of 66.70, 67.20 and 67.90 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 20, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 280,915
: Positions :
: 27,024 84,160 72,436 89,060 91,535 79,587 18,863 268,108 266,994: 12,806 13,921
: Changes from: May 13, 2025 (Change in open interest: 9,655) :
: -1,808 8,025 2,680 6,651 -3,209 2,326 2,304 9,850 9,800: -195 -145
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.6 30.0 25.8 31.7 32.6 28.3 6.7 95.4 95.0: 4.6 5.0
: Total Traders: 321 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 109 96 76 66 45 24 256 241:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher last week and trends are turning up in the market. USDA adjusted US and Florida production slightly higher than in production estimates in its recent reports. Production estimates remain well below those from a year ago. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. A tight market and higher prices should remain a feature for futures traders.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up. Support is at 273.00, 263.00, and 246.00 July, with resistance at 304.00, 314.00, and 325.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 20, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,303 :
: Positions :
: 3,245 5,994 448 0 186 1,991 1,560 10 2,321 157 2,510 :
: Changes from: May 13, 2025 :
: -487 -215 -2 0 15 5 -84 0 153 -25 -172 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 26.4 48.7 3.6 0.0 1.5 16.2 12.7 0.1 18.9 1.3 20.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 48 :
: 8 8 . 0 . 6 10 . 13 4 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week. Trends turned down on the charts with the price action late in the week. Prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before. Prices are still very high overall and reflect the report of tight supplies and the production concerns in Latin America for Arabica production. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting and is expected to be less this year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 323.07 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 348.00, 337.00, and 324.00 July, and resistance is at 368.00, 379.00 and 385.00 July. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4710, 4640, and 4610 July, with resistance at 5000, 5370, and 5520 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 20, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 185,781
: Positions :
: 34,525 8,630 54,333 46,682 108,013 41,641 8,547 177,181 179,524: 8,600 6,258
: Changes from: May 13, 2025 (Change in open interest: -3,369) :
: -1,946 -182 512 -1,433 -3,665 -179 403 -3,046 -2,931: -322 -438
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.6 4.6 29.2 25.1 58.1 22.4 4.6 95.4 96.6: 4.6 3.4
: Total Traders: 334 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 94 73 107 82 104 45 18 273 259:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower last week and closed near the lows of the week on ideas that the market will move to a surplus situation in the coming year. Ideas of good supplies and less demand continue. China has been a buyer with cheaper prices to help provide some support. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and the harvest has been slower but is expected to be faster now amid drier conditions.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1720, 1690, and 1650 July and resistance is at 1780, 1850, and 1890 July. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 478.00, 468.00, and 456.00 August, with resistance at 499.00, 513.00, and 521.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 20, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 933,514
: Positions :
: 105,587 155,923 194,603 335,131 459,457 233,883 52,927 869,205 862,910: 64,309 70,604
: Changes from: May 13, 2025 (Change in open interest: 7,648) :
: -1,415 -375 745 8,511 -1,302 3,841 2,638 11,682 1,705: -4,035 5,942
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 16.7 20.8 35.9 49.2 25.1 5.7 93.1 92.4: 6.9 7.6
: Total Traders: 239 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 54 57 80 74 72 37 18 212 184:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed lower last week with a lot of the selling appearing on Friday. There are still reports of increased flows of Cocoa from Nigeria and reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Early pod counts for the 2025/26 main crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production next season. Mid crop counts have not been strong and here have been concerns that current dry conditions will hurt production potential. Trends are mixed in London and in New York. Demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Demand ideas have been under pressure on the high prices currently seen for Cocoa due to bad production in West Africa.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 9630, 9500, and 9400 July, with resistance at 11280, 11520, and 11640 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 6490, 6400, and 6300 July, with resistance at 7550, 8830, and 7960 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 20, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 138,774
: Positions :
: 23,440 12,485 45,485 40,503 64,601 18,325 10,006 127,753 132,576: 11,021 6,198
: Changes from: May 13, 2025 (Change in open interest: 12,492) :
: 4,730 3,050 7,430 823 1,156 668 722 13,651 12,358: -1,159 134
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.9 9.0 32.8 29.2 46.6 13.2 7.2 92.1 95.5: 7.9 4.5
: Total Traders: 165 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 59 36 63 32 32 28 18 144 125:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322