Last week’s column was all about May showers. Well, we got more this week. The question proposed last week was, what do May showers bring? As one would assume, improved growing conditions. While the rains may have had little to do with greening up the market, it appears the bears, especially in the wheat market, were covering some shorts so they could go out and get the garden planted. This is a cause of correlation doesn’t equal causation, though the bulls sure enjoy the drink.
Corn reversed higher this week, with contracts taking off and July closing with a 16 cent gain. New crop December was up 15 ¼ cents. Weekly Crop Progress data pegged 78% of the US corn crop planted as of May 18, still ahead of the 5-year average. The crop was also pegged at 50% emerged. EIA showed ethanol production back up 43,000 barrels per day to 1.036 million bpd in the week of 5/16. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of 501,000 barrels to 24.944 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.19 MMT for the week that ended on May 15. That brought the total export commitments to 63.279 MMT, which is 96% of the new USDA full-year export forecast and now matching the 5-year average pace for this week. New crop sales were 218,371 MT. Friday’s CFTC data showed spec funds increasing their net short in corn futures and options by a move of 18,324 contracts to a net -103,210 contracts by May 20.
The wheat complex posted a round of stronger trade with all three exchanges heading higher. Chicago SRW saw a gain of 17 ½ cents (3.33%) for July on the week. July Kansas City was back up 22 ¼ cents (4.31%). MPLS futures led the charge, with July rallying 33 ¼ cents (5.8%) on the week. NASS Crop Progress data indicated a total of 82% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of 5/18, vs. the 5-year average pace of 65%. Winter wheat ratings were tallied at 52% good/excellent, down 2%, with the Brugler500 index down 2 points to 336. Export Sales data tallied US wheat 2024/25 business at net reductions of 13,373 MT in the week of 5/15. Bookings for the 2025/26 crop were at 882,202 MT, the largest sales since December 2023. Commitment of Traders data showed specs covering some of their large net short position in CBT wheat futures and options by 18,002 contracts as of Tuesday to 108,893 contracts. In KC wheat, they cut back 637 contracts from their previous record net short to 80,162 contracts during the week of May 20.
Soybeans gave back some gains late in the week, with July still up 10 ¼ cents and November rallying 15 cents. July soybean meal was $4.30 lower (1.47%), with bean oil up 42 points (0.86%) on the week. USDA’s Crop Progress report tallied 66% of the US soybean crop was planted as of 5/18, well ahead of the 5-year average pace. Emergence was pegged at 34%. Thursday morning’s Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to 307,939 MT in the week of May 15. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 48.3 MMT. That is 96% of USDA’s export projection for the marketing year, 3 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs in soybean futures and options cutting back 25,753 contracts from their net long as of Tuesday, to a net long of 12,654 contracts.
Live cattle rebounded this week, as June was back up $3.57. The cash market was firm this week, with southern sales mainly at $219-220 (some to $229) and northern trade at $230-231. Feeders also saw some strength on the week, with August up $2.775. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $5.35 week/week to $295.46. Cattle on Feed data showed April placements down 2.6% from last year at 1.613 million head, with marketings down 2.5% to 1.825 million head. May 1 on feed inventory was at 11.376 million head, down 1.54%. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher again this week. Choice was up $9.06 (2.6%) to $361.55, while Select was $8.93 higher (+2.6%) to $351.32. Weekly beef production was up 0.5% from last week at 496.9 million lbs this week, which was also 2.8% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 2.6%, as slaughter is 6.1% lower. April 30 beef stocks were tallied at 418.15 million lbs, down 1.93% from last year and a 1.65% decline from March. Export Sales data showed a total of 12,276 MT of beef sold in the week of May 15. Shipments were tallied at 14,828 MT, which was back up from the previous week. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options trimming back 2,256 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday to 132,564 contracts. Managed money added back to their net long in feeder cattle futures and options by 1,757 contracts to 33,972 contracts by May 20.
Hogs were the weaker spot for the ags this week, down $2.02 in the June contract. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.73 this week at $92.75 as of May 21. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $1.34 this week (1.3%) to $101.46/cwt. The ham and belly primals were reported lower, with the join, butt, and picnic all up $4 to $4.99. Pork production was down 1.8% from last week but 0.4% above the same week a year ago at 511.2 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 1.7%, as slaughter is 2.1% lower. Cold Storage data showed 455.803 million lbs of pork stocks at the end of April, a drop of 8.71% from last year but up 11.32% from March. Weekly Export Sales data showed a total of 37,391 MT of pork sold in the week of 5/15. Shipments were tallied at 28,547 MT, at the largest in 5 weeks. Friday’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 10,568 contracts to their net long position as of 5/20 to a net position of 91,744 contracts.
Cotton futures posted a 122 point gain this week in the July contracts, with December up 96 points. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 40% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, behind the 43% pace from the 5-year average. USDA’s Export Sales report showed a total of 141,428 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on May 15. Shipments were at a multi-month low at 251,531 RB. Upland cotton commitments are 11.297 million RB, 109% of the USDA export forecast and slightly behind the 110% average pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 38 points lower this week, to 53.52 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds adding back another 10,951 contracts from their net short position as of May 20 to 40,039 contracts.
Market Watch
Next Monday will see a day off for the market and the government on Monday for Memorial Day. That will push back the weekly Export Inspections report to Tuesday, with the Crop Progress report out that afternoon. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will released on Thursday morning, with the Export Sales report also delayed to Friday morning. PCE data will also be released on Friday afternoon.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn had a nice run this week with the Monday-Wednesday trade up 20+cents. That followed the Monday key reversal holding the April low of $4.365. However, things stalled out near the 100-day moving average at $4.54 ¾ on Thursday. Breaking that would open up the door to the downtrend resistance at $4.63. Stochastics are bull friendly. From a seasonal standpoint, the May, June, or July period for posting a new crop high is here. Bulls just need to capitalize.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Green-Up. Ag Marketing Report 05/27/2025
Last week’s column was all about May showers. Well, we got more this week. The question proposed last week was, what do May showers bring? As one would assume, improved growing conditions. While the rains may have had little to do with greening up the market, it appears the bears, especially in the wheat market, were covering some shorts so they could go out and get the garden planted. This is a cause of correlation doesn’t equal causation, though the bulls sure enjoy the drink.
Corn reversed higher this week, with contracts taking off and July closing with a 16 cent gain. New crop December was up 15 ¼ cents. Weekly Crop Progress data pegged 78% of the US corn crop planted as of May 18, still ahead of the 5-year average. The crop was also pegged at 50% emerged. EIA showed ethanol production back up 43,000 barrels per day to 1.036 million bpd in the week of 5/16. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of 501,000 barrels to 24.944 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.19 MMT for the week that ended on May 15. That brought the total export commitments to 63.279 MMT, which is 96% of the new USDA full-year export forecast and now matching the 5-year average pace for this week. New crop sales were 218,371 MT. Friday’s CFTC data showed spec funds increasing their net short in corn futures and options by a move of 18,324 contracts to a net -103,210 contracts by May 20.
The wheat complex posted a round of stronger trade with all three exchanges heading higher. Chicago SRW saw a gain of 17 ½ cents (3.33%) for July on the week. July Kansas City was back up 22 ¼ cents (4.31%). MPLS futures led the charge, with July rallying 33 ¼ cents (5.8%) on the week. NASS Crop Progress data indicated a total of 82% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of 5/18, vs. the 5-year average pace of 65%. Winter wheat ratings were tallied at 52% good/excellent, down 2%, with the Brugler500 index down 2 points to 336. Export Sales data tallied US wheat 2024/25 business at net reductions of 13,373 MT in the week of 5/15. Bookings for the 2025/26 crop were at 882,202 MT, the largest sales since December 2023. Commitment of Traders data showed specs covering some of their large net short position in CBT wheat futures and options by 18,002 contracts as of Tuesday to 108,893 contracts. In KC wheat, they cut back 637 contracts from their previous record net short to 80,162 contracts during the week of May 20.
Soybeans gave back some gains late in the week, with July still up 10 ¼ cents and November rallying 15 cents. July soybean meal was $4.30 lower (1.47%), with bean oil up 42 points (0.86%) on the week. USDA’s Crop Progress report tallied 66% of the US soybean crop was planted as of 5/18, well ahead of the 5-year average pace. Emergence was pegged at 34%. Thursday morning’s Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to 307,939 MT in the week of May 15. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 48.3 MMT. That is 96% of USDA’s export projection for the marketing year, 3 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs in soybean futures and options cutting back 25,753 contracts from their net long as of Tuesday, to a net long of 12,654 contracts.
Live cattle rebounded this week, as June was back up $3.57. The cash market was firm this week, with southern sales mainly at $219-220 (some to $229) and northern trade at $230-231. Feeders also saw some strength on the week, with August up $2.775. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $5.35 week/week to $295.46. Cattle on Feed data showed April placements down 2.6% from last year at 1.613 million head, with marketings down 2.5% to 1.825 million head. May 1 on feed inventory was at 11.376 million head, down 1.54%. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher again this week. Choice was up $9.06 (2.6%) to $361.55, while Select was $8.93 higher (+2.6%) to $351.32. Weekly beef production was up 0.5% from last week at 496.9 million lbs this week, which was also 2.8% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 2.6%, as slaughter is 6.1% lower. April 30 beef stocks were tallied at 418.15 million lbs, down 1.93% from last year and a 1.65% decline from March. Export Sales data showed a total of 12,276 MT of beef sold in the week of May 15. Shipments were tallied at 14,828 MT, which was back up from the previous week. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options trimming back 2,256 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday to 132,564 contracts. Managed money added back to their net long in feeder cattle futures and options by 1,757 contracts to 33,972 contracts by May 20.
Hogs were the weaker spot for the ags this week, down $2.02 in the June contract. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.73 this week at $92.75 as of May 21. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $1.34 this week (1.3%) to $101.46/cwt. The ham and belly primals were reported lower, with the join, butt, and picnic all up $4 to $4.99. Pork production was down 1.8% from last week but 0.4% above the same week a year ago at 511.2 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 1.7%, as slaughter is 2.1% lower. Cold Storage data showed 455.803 million lbs of pork stocks at the end of April, a drop of 8.71% from last year but up 11.32% from March. Weekly Export Sales data showed a total of 37,391 MT of pork sold in the week of 5/15. Shipments were tallied at 28,547 MT, at the largest in 5 weeks. Friday’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 10,568 contracts to their net long position as of 5/20 to a net position of 91,744 contracts.
Cotton futures posted a 122 point gain this week in the July contracts, with December up 96 points. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 40% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, behind the 43% pace from the 5-year average. USDA’s Export Sales report showed a total of 141,428 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on May 15. Shipments were at a multi-month low at 251,531 RB. Upland cotton commitments are 11.297 million RB, 109% of the USDA export forecast and slightly behind the 110% average pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 38 points lower this week, to 53.52 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds adding back another 10,951 contracts from their net short position as of May 20 to 40,039 contracts.
Market Watch
Next Monday will see a day off for the market and the government on Monday for Memorial Day. That will push back the weekly Export Inspections report to Tuesday, with the Crop Progress report out that afternoon. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will released on Thursday morning, with the Export Sales report also delayed to Friday morning. PCE data will also be released on Friday afternoon.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn had a nice run this week with the Monday-Wednesday trade up 20+cents. That followed the Monday key reversal holding the April low of $4.365. However, things stalled out near the 100-day moving average at $4.54 ¾ on Thursday. Breaking that would open up the door to the downtrend resistance at $4.63. Stochastics are bull friendly. From a seasonal standpoint, the May, June, or July period for posting a new crop high is here. Bulls just need to capitalize.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.