Grains Report 05/27/2025

DJ Summary for May USDA Monthly Cattle on Feed Data
Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly cattle-on-feed report, released at 3:00 p.m. ET Thursday, and analysts’ estimates as compiled by the Wall Street Journal. In million head.
Numbers USDA’s Average Range
2025 2024 estimated of analysts’ of analysts’
% of prev yr estimates estimates
On-feed May 1 11.376M 11.554M 98 98.5 98.3- 98.8
Placed in Apr 1.613M 1.656M 97 97.1 95.4- 98.0
Marketed in Apr 1.825M 1.872M 97 96.8 96.0- 97.4
Note: USDA rounds its estimates to the nearest whole number.

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-May 23
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 59.582 million pounds, in April, 9.2% above the previous
month, and 22.3% below April 2024, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Friday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Apr 30 Mar 31 Apr 30 Mar 31 warehouse
2025 2025 2024 2024 stocks/Apr
pork bellies 59,582 54,538 76,692 74,509
orange juice 264,294 266,366 282,360 256,580
french fries 945,888 968,997 968,432 983,176
other potatoes 227,281 238,774 239,257 243,991
chicken rstr (whole) 10,236 9,454 11,074 11,488
ham 87,877 62,231 94,952 70,288
total pork 455,803 409,464 499,308 463,087 407,560
total beef 418,147 425,173 426,368 423,909 412,497
total red meat 893,577 854,094 949,624 910,122 839,631
total chicken 755,327 772,773 740,148 763,523
total turkey 318,783 303,402 390,482 357,766
total poultry 1,075,642 1,077,508 1,134,199 1,123,982 994,987
===============================================================================

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed higher last week. There are still reports that cold weather had created frosts in Ukraine and Russia and reports of dry weather in the EU and China. Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, but Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada have been dry and cold. Some rain was seen in the northern Great Plains last week. Temperatures should be warmer in most growing areas this week. Chart trends are mixed. The export sales report showed strong demand for new crop Wheat. Enough Wheat has always been available to the market and demand for US Wheat in export markets has been poor. Dry outlooks for the Black Sea regions are still around. It is hot and dry in important parts of the EU and China. Overall demand for world Wheat has been weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up Support is at 539, 529 and 506 July, with resistance at 561, 569, and 571 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up. Support is at 514, 500, and 494 July, with resistance at 548, 557, and 563 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up. Support is at 597, 590, and 582 July, and resistance is at 611, 617, and 621 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 20, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 549,596
: Positions :
: 67,827 167,116 183,403 123,581 65,968 135,036 95,965 509,847 512,453: 39,749 37,143
: Changes from: May 13, 2025 (Change in open interest: -4,672) :
: -143 -16,383 4,378 -7,113 5,300 2,810 756 -67 -5,949: -4,605 1,277
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.3 30.4 33.4 22.5 12.0 24.6 17.5 92.8 93.2: 7.2 6.8
: Total Traders: 391 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 104 106 120 106 89 47 30 319 289:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 20, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 321,977
: Positions :
: 28,506 102,121 88,428 85,909 71,753 94,897 39,604 297,740 301,906: 24,237 20,071
: Changes from: May 13, 2025 (Change in open interest: 6,935) :
: 232 -1,035 4,225 -89 4,536 2,759 -104 7,128 7,622: -193 -687
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 31.7 27.5 26.7 22.3 29.5 12.3 92.5 93.8: 7.5 6.2
: Total Traders: 254 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 56 65 67 83 62 36 18 209 180:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 20, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 82,978 :
: Positions :
: 44,701 18,300 4,129 684 931 9,003 43,143 5,472 2,209 2,053 3,466 :
: Changes from: May 13, 2025 :
: 3,615 -164 367 -283 86 596 7,217 1,391 -962 -1,288 -110 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 53.9 22.1 5.0 0.8 1.1 10.8 52.0 6.6 2.7 2.5 4.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 125 :
: 56 36 6 . 7 14 27 11 5 8 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher and began to turn chart trends up on the weekly charts. The trends are still turning up on the daily charts as well in this market. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is planted in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good so far by private sources and USDA.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up. Support is at 1282, 1261, and 1228 July and resistance is at 1337, 1346, and 1369 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 20, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 13,176 :
: Positions :
: 6,513 1,752 0 148 0 511 6,546 90 1,495 825 1,711 :
: Changes from: May 13, 2025 :
: -19 67 0 -2 0 147 232 -18 213 69 -244 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 49.4 13.3 0.0 1.1 0.0 3.9 49.7 0.7 11.3 6.3 13.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 77 :
: 21 15 0 . 0 . 22 . 16 6 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher last week, with old crop months higher on another week of strong export sales and new crop months slightly higher on ideas of good weather conditions for the Corn Belt. Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast for the coming week after a cold week last week. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong with sales and shipments of above 1.1 million tons in the latest reporting week. It is warmer and drier in much of the Midwest and planting progress is expected. USDA should also release its first condition report for the crop with very high ratings expected by the trade. Oats were higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 451, 443, and 437 July, and resistance is at 470, 480, and 487 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 348, 341, and 336 July, and resistance is at 362, 367, and 373 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 20, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,153,471
: Positions :
: 116,221 306,020 673,498 688,623 799,227 482,546 169,452 1,960,887 1,948,196: 192,584 205,274
: Changes from: May 13, 2025 (Change in open interest: 72,034) :
: 9,984 13,391 36,365 23,108 9,751 -1,902 17,427 67,554 76,934: 4,480 -4,900
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.4 14.2 31.3 32.0 37.1 22.4 7.9 91.1 90.5: 8.9 9.5
: Total Traders: 821 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 141 137 204 387 397 49 31 690 672:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were a little higher last week. The market could turn lower as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Warmer temperatures and drier conditions are expected this week after a cold and wet late week last week.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1051, 1046, and 1037 July, and resistance is at 1082, 1088, and 1105 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 290.00, 287.00, and 284.00 July, and resistance is at 300.00, 302.00, and 306.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4770, 4730, and 4610 July, with resistance at 5030, 5110, and 5260 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 20, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,066,944
: Positions :
: 94,997 113,870 344,361 354,694 482,448 214,246 56,377 1,008,299 997,056: 58,645 69,888
: Changes from: May 13, 2025 (Change in open interest: 19,109) :
: -15,074 12,747 1,837 25,654 2,828 6,349 316 18,766 17,729: 343 1,380
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 10.7 32.3 33.2 45.2 20.1 5.3 94.5 93.4: 5.5 6.6
: Total Traders: 572 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 128 138 192 185 217 49 26 473 472:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 20, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 679,602
: Positions :
: 86,343 85,410 195,612 194,580 341,269 168,707 30,310 645,242 652,600: 34,361 27,002
: Changes from: May 13, 2025 (Change in open interest: 9,864) :
: -4,938 1,955 13,590 1,355 -6,407 3,660 2,170 13,667 11,309: -3,803 -1,445
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.7 12.6 28.8 28.6 50.2 24.8 4.5 94.9 96.0: 5.1 4.0
: Total Traders: 353 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 90 85 119 97 107 45 20 292 277:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 20, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 663,735
: Positions :
: 62,795 160,331 168,212 250,625 256,085 122,176 45,986 603,809 630,615: 59,926 33,120
: Changes from: May 13, 2025 (Change in open interest: 14,060) :
: -2,282 4,469 9,913 3,983 -164 -1,068 887 10,547 15,105: 3,513 -1,045
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.5 24.2 25.3 37.8 38.6 18.4 6.9 91.0 95.0: 9.0 5.0
: Total Traders: 353 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 98 93 122 115 37 19 281 273:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were a little lower last week. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Ideas of increasing production and reduced demand are also heard. The Ringgit was stronger to help limit gains. Chart trends are down. Canola was higher. Trends are turning up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been good for planting in the Prairies but it is too dry in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 699.00, 686.00, and 680.00 July, with resistance at 735.00, 738.00, and 744.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 3770, 3710, and 3650 August, with resistance at 3990, 4040, and 4130 August.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 20, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 17,820 :
: Positions :
: 12,316 8,234 322 5,441 420 259 0 621 1,702 964 2,120 :
: Changes from: May 13, 2025 :
: 668 -766 0 1,184 0 -300 0 300 20 -40 0 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 69.1 46.2 1.8 30.5 2.4 1.5 0.0 3.5 9.6 5.4 11.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 26 :
: 8 8 . 4 . . 0 . 4 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 20, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 264,229 :
: Positions :
: 89,961 170,871 7,853 12,712 2,139 113,301 23,297 18,045 11,701 16,068 19,323 :
: Changes from: May 13, 2025 :
: -2,749 -2,770 1,373 753 3 6,091 3,623 -2,717 -1,520 1,081 2,643 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 34.0 64.7 3.0 4.8 0.8 42.9 8.8 6.8 4.4 6.1 7.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 305 :
: 37 57 6 4 5 79 16 23 62 64 40 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered to isolated showers Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 972.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 972.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 970.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 972.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 980.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 977.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 977.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 975.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 977.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 985.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 937.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 875.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 3,900.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 426.00 -08.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2373)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 207,213 lots, or 8.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 4,145 4,154 4,106 4,144 4,159 4,133 -26 121,752 150,958
Sep-25 4,142 4,155 4,109 4,146 4,158 4,132 -26 67,945 111,820
Nov-25 4,046 4,056 4,009 4,040 4,058 4,033 -25 10,500 51,039
Jan-26 4,042 4,051 4,008 4,039 4,054 4,029 -25 3,912 10,657
Mar-26 4,045 4,049 4,006 4,037 4,054 4,031 -23 3,080 6,887
May-26 4,083 4,090 4,064 4,072 4,097 4,076 -21 24 73
Corn
Turnover: 576,352 lots, or 13.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 2,320 2,326 2,314 2,324 2,323 2,319 -4 421,617 1,247,898
Sep-25 2,341 2,351 2,340 2,348 2,348 2,344 -4 108,513 489,762
Nov-25 2,275 2,280 2,272 2,280 2,276 2,276 0 23,794 212,649
Jan-26 2,239 2,244 2,236 2,244 2,241 2,239 -2 11,487 65,327
Mar-26 2,234 2,239 2,231 2,238 2,237 2,234 -3 9,963 30,836
May-26 2,253 2,258 2,248 2,257 2,257 2,253 -4 978 1,892
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,442,000 lots, or 42.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 2,788 2,806 2,774 2,802 2,783 2,793 10 87,037 471,593
Aug-25 2,936 2,958 2,925 2,951 2,935 2,943 8 13,468 199,356
Sep-25 2,952 2,974 2,940 2,966 2,947 2,958 11 1,067,156 2,373,869
Nov-25 2,990 3,010 2,978 3,004 2,983 2,995 12 45,841 393,997
Dec-25 3,021 3,044 3,013 3,040 3,013 3,030 17 3,825 87,394
Jan-26 3,003 3,026 2,995 3,022 2,996 3,012 16 118,691 675,832
Mar-26 2,860 2,876 2,852 2,868 2,859 2,864 5 54,439 135,183
May-26 2,710 2,719 2,706 2,716 2,709 2,711 2 51,543 149,865
Palm Oil
Turnover: 559,602 lots, or 44.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-25 8,266 8,312 8,246 8,264 8,262 8,266 4 430 1,378
Jul-25 8,146 8,198 8,124 8,194 8,146 8,154 8 7,214 11,128
Aug-25 8,062 8,120 8,044 8,118 8,060 8,072 12 210 962
Sep-25 7,984 8,048 7,970 8,044 7,980 8,000 20 531,013 391,040
Oct-25 7,938 8,014 7,938 8,014 7,958 7,958 0 31 1,093
Nov-25 7,932 8,008 7,932 8,008 7,962 7,968 6 33 874
Dec-25 7,942 8,000 7,942 7,994 7,954 7,966 12 30 406
Jan-26 7,980 8,030 7,952 8,022 7,974 7,986 12 20,535 92,427
Feb-26 7,950 8,006 7,950 8,000 7,968 7,982 14 9 895
Mar-26 7,936 7,998 7,928 7,998 7,962 7,954 -8 31 225
Apr-26 7,990 7,992 7,948 7,948 7,970 7,968 -2 6 70
May-26 7,934 7,982 7,922 7,980 7,940 7,950 10 60 106
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 294,362 lots, or 22.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 7,752 7,780 7,732 7,780 7,762 7,758 -4 6,509 33,178
Aug-25 7,734 7,768 7,716 7,768 7,742 7,746 4 738 7,537
Sep-25 7,716 7,744 7,694 7,740 7,724 7,720 -4 260,394 586,409
Nov-25 7,734 7,766 7,722 7,760 7,760 7,742 -18 713 3,426
Dec-25 7,780 7,792 7,772 7,786 7,790 7,786 -4 28 1,352
Jan-26 7,700 7,718 7,670 7,712 7,700 7,694 -6 24,911 146,876
Mar-26 7,590 7,620 7,582 7,608 7,618 7,602 -16 50 928
May-26 7,540 7,554 7,500 7,510 7,534 7,522 -12 1,019 3,049
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322