Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M., Existing Home Sales and Existing Home Sales MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., Kansas Fed Composite Index and Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index at 10;00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 10-Year TIPS Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Williams Speech at 1:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
While diesel fuel prices have declined in recent months diesel fuel stocks have fallen sharply since the start of the year. The EIA’s weekly Petroleum Status report showed that diesel stocks rose by less than 1% for the week but were down 11% less than a year ago. The previous week’s stocks figure of 103.5 Mil barrels from the lowest since April 2025. Domestic demand has seasonally declined from an early year high on declining heating oil use. Stocks in terms of days of use have been below $2/gallon, and have since inched higher. Given relatively cheap prices and historically tight stocks, ARC continues to advise booking summer and fall fuel needs.
US Weather Pattern Update
US Climate Forecast Adjusting to Recent/Upcoming Rainfall; Early Summer Heat/Dryness Unlikely:
The Central US forecast maintains a pattern of welcomed dryness across the US Plains and principal Midwest into May 31st, with seeding & fieldwork there to resume next week. Unwanted rain in MO, southern IL, IN, and KY Sun-Mon, but additional soaking rain has been absent from the South Midwest May 28-June 5. Abnormally cold temps persist in most areas for another 7-8 days, but warmth resumes thereafter. The forecast is improving, while soil moisture on June 1 will be adequate to abundant in all but NE and the northern third of IL. Long-range models are adjusting too the recent shrinking of drought coverage. In June, the CFSv2 model now keeps meaningful heat confined to the Southwest and Upper Great Lakes region. Early season dryness is not anticipated.
Black Sea Weather Pattern Update
Black Sea Forecast Maintains Warmth/Dryness into Early Jube:
The EU/Black Sea forecast consistently calls for favorable rainfall and mild temperatures across Eastern Europe and the Baltic Region but noticeably dry conditions in West Europe . E Ukraine, and Russia into June 1st. Much of the Black Sea has avoided outright weather catastrophes so far, but the duration of coming heat/dryness will be monitored. The EU model’s 10-day E Europe/Black Sea temp anomaly forecast shows highs in the upper 80’s/low 90’s – 4-7 degrees above normal – will be common/widespread in the 6-15 day period. The coming pattern is most concerning in far E Ukraine/SW Russia, with deeply negative soil moisture anomalies remaining. There are hints of scattered showers in Ukraine/S Russia in the 12-15 day period, but confidence in details so far out is low. A few rain events are needed in June to guarantee trend winter crop yield.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Post Two-Week High on Short Covering; US Weather Lacks New Threats into Early June:
Continued short covering lifted July CBOT corn to the highest price since May 7th. There was no fundamental catalyst for the move, but tight old crop stocks linger in the background, and the paring of risk ahead of the three-day weekend and the beginning of the growing season is noted. Ag Resources (ARC) notes central US forecast have improved as lengthy/welcome dryness & sunshine lies ahead for the N Plains & Midwest. Thursday’s drought monitor will improve in W, IL, IA, the Dakotas, and MN moisture. Choppy, wide-ranging trade is not unusual in late May & early June. It’s after mid-June in which rallies have hinged solely on real or perceived US weather issues – such as 2019 & 2020. ARC’s concern is that the market more actively trades the potential for record US yield from early June onward. Be prepared to extend 2025 hedges by 10-20% on rallies. Chart resistance lies at $4.55-$4.80 in July and $4.55-$4.65 in December. Unless a real weather threat arises across the Central US in the next 6 weeks, price trends will return lower.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Tax Cuts Passes House-Races Across the Finish Line-Senate Next. The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/22/2025
We kickoff the day with Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M., Existing Home Sales and Existing Home Sales MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., Kansas Fed Composite Index and Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index at 10;00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 10-Year TIPS Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Williams Speech at 1:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
While diesel fuel prices have declined in recent months diesel fuel stocks have fallen sharply since the start of the year. The EIA’s weekly Petroleum Status report showed that diesel stocks rose by less than 1% for the week but were down 11% less than a year ago. The previous week’s stocks figure of 103.5 Mil barrels from the lowest since April 2025. Domestic demand has seasonally declined from an early year high on declining heating oil use. Stocks in terms of days of use have been below $2/gallon, and have since inched higher. Given relatively cheap prices and historically tight stocks, ARC continues to advise booking summer and fall fuel needs.
US Weather Pattern Update
US Climate Forecast Adjusting to Recent/Upcoming Rainfall; Early Summer Heat/Dryness Unlikely:
The Central US forecast maintains a pattern of welcomed dryness across the US Plains and principal Midwest into May 31st, with seeding & fieldwork there to resume next week. Unwanted rain in MO, southern IL, IN, and KY Sun-Mon, but additional soaking rain has been absent from the South Midwest May 28-June 5. Abnormally cold temps persist in most areas for another 7-8 days, but warmth resumes thereafter. The forecast is improving, while soil moisture on June 1 will be adequate to abundant in all but NE and the northern third of IL. Long-range models are adjusting too the recent shrinking of drought coverage. In June, the CFSv2 model now keeps meaningful heat confined to the Southwest and Upper Great Lakes region. Early season dryness is not anticipated.
Black Sea Weather Pattern Update
Black Sea Forecast Maintains Warmth/Dryness into Early Jube:
The EU/Black Sea forecast consistently calls for favorable rainfall and mild temperatures across Eastern Europe and the Baltic Region but noticeably dry conditions in West Europe . E Ukraine, and Russia into June 1st. Much of the Black Sea has avoided outright weather catastrophes so far, but the duration of coming heat/dryness will be monitored. The EU model’s 10-day E Europe/Black Sea temp anomaly forecast shows highs in the upper 80’s/low 90’s – 4-7 degrees above normal – will be common/widespread in the 6-15 day period. The coming pattern is most concerning in far E Ukraine/SW Russia, with deeply negative soil moisture anomalies remaining. There are hints of scattered showers in Ukraine/S Russia in the 12-15 day period, but confidence in details so far out is low. A few rain events are needed in June to guarantee trend winter crop yield.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Post Two-Week High on Short Covering; US Weather Lacks New Threats into Early June:
Continued short covering lifted July CBOT corn to the highest price since May 7th. There was no fundamental catalyst for the move, but tight old crop stocks linger in the background, and the paring of risk ahead of the three-day weekend and the beginning of the growing season is noted. Ag Resources (ARC) notes central US forecast have improved as lengthy/welcome dryness & sunshine lies ahead for the N Plains & Midwest. Thursday’s drought monitor will improve in W, IL, IA, the Dakotas, and MN moisture. Choppy, wide-ranging trade is not unusual in late May & early June. It’s after mid-June in which rallies have hinged solely on real or perceived US weather issues – such as 2019 & 2020. ARC’s concern is that the market more actively trades the potential for record US yield from early June onward. Be prepared to extend 2025 hedges by 10-20% on rallies. Chart resistance lies at $4.55-$4.80 in July and $4.55-$4.65 in December. Unless a real weather threat arises across the Central US in the next 6 weeks, price trends will return lower.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374