Softs Report 05/21/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher again yesterday on slower than expected planting progress shown in the USDA reports released on Monday afternoon. The weekly export sales report showed below average demand. There are still reports of better weather for planting in the southern US and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported poor weekly export sales. Planting conditions remain good. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week, and farmers are in the fields. More showers are in the forecast for the Great Plains. It has turned drier in the Delta and Southeast. Planting progress is about the same as the five year average and conditions of the crops should be good.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 66.59 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 63.80, 62.10, and 60.80 July, with resistance of 66.70, 67.20 and 67.90 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher in consolidation trading. Trends are mixed in the market. USDA adjusted US and Florida production slightly higher than in production estimates in its reports yesterday. Production estimates remain well below those from a year ago. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather abut also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. A tight market and higher prices should remain a feature for futures traders.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 411 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 236.00, 217.00, and 200.00 July, with resistance at 274.00, 277.00, and 288.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday as the dramatic up and down price action continues. Trends turned down on the weekly charts. Prices are still very high overall and reflect the report of tight supplies and the production concerns in Latin America for Arabica production. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting and is expected to be less this year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 332.36 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 363.00, 348.00, and 337.00 July, and resistance is at 385.00, 393.00 and 397.00 July. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4810, 4760, and 4640 July, with resistance at 5370, 5520, and 5550 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower yesterday on ideas that the market will move to a surplus situation in the coming year. Ideas of good supplies and less demand continue. China has been a buyer with cheaper prices to help provide some support. Thai Sugar has moved to China lately and in volume. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and the harvest has been slower but is expected to be faster now amid drier conditions..
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1720, 1690, and 1650 July and resistance is at 1780, 1850, and 1890 July. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 484.00, 478.00, and 468.00 August, with resistance at 513.00, 521.00, and 531.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed mixed on concerns about West Africa production. There are still reports of increased flows of Cocoa from Nigeria and reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Early pod counts for the 2025/26 main crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production next season. Mid crop counts have not been strong and here have been concerns that current dry conditions will hurt production potential. Trends are mixed in London and in New York but are trying to turn up even as demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Demand ideas have been under pressure on the high prices currently seen for Cocoa due to bad production in West Africa.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 10000, 9650, and 9500 July, with resistance at 11280, 11520, and 11640 July. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 7130, 6930, and 6850 July, with resistance at 7960, 8220, and 8360 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322