Softs Report 05/19/2025

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Monday, May 19, 2025

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA d60CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower again last week in response to improved weather conditions throughout the Cotton belt. The weekly export sales report showed below average demand. There are still reports of better weather for planting in the southern US and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported poor weekly export sales. Planting conditions remain good. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week, and farmers are in the fields. More showers are in the forecast for the Great Plains. It has turned drier in the Delta and Southeast. Planting progress is about the same as the five year average and conditions of the crops should be good.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 66.59 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 63.80, 62.10, and 60.80 July, with resistance of 65.90, 66.70 and 67.20 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 13, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 271,260
: Positions :
: 28,832 76,135 69,756 82,409 94,744 77,261 16,559 258,258 257,194: 13,001 14,066
: Changes from: May 6, 2025 (Change in open interest: 4,205) :
: -2,402 6,016 2,310 1,852 -5,159 1,694 1,012 3,454 4,180: 751 26
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.6 28.1 25.7 30.4 34.9 28.5 6.1 95.2 94.8: 4.8 5.2
: Total Traders: 319 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 109 95 76 69 45 23 254 239:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were mostly limit down Friday and closed a little lower for the week. Trends are mixed in the market. USDA adjusted US and Florida production slightly higher than in production estimates in its reports yesterday. Production estimates remain well below those from a year ago. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather abut also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. A tight market and higher prices should remain a feature for futures traders.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 411 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 236.00, 217.00, and 200.00 July, with resistance at 274.00, 277.00, and 288.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 13, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,788 :
: Positions :
: 3,732 6,209 449 0 171 1,986 1,644 10 2,168 182 2,682 :
: Changes from: May 6, 2025 :
: 32 -254 -14 -6 24 42 445 1 255 117 37 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.2 48.6 3.5 0.0 1.3 15.5 12.9 0.1 17.0 1.4 21.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 51 :
: 8 8 . 0 . 6 11 . 12 7 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week in up and down price action. Trends turned down on the weekly charts. Prices are still very high overall and reflect the report of tight supplies and the production concerns in Latin America for Arabica production. The Brazil Robusta harvest started and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 329.52 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 12 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 175 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 363.00, 348.00, and 337.00 July, and resistance is at 385.00, 393.00 and 397.00 July. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4810, 4760, and 4640 July, with resistance at 5370, 5520, and 5550 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 13, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 189,150
: Positions :
: 36,470 8,812 53,821 48,116 111,678 41,821 8,144 180,227 182,455: 8,923 6,695
: Changes from: May 6, 2025 (Change in open interest: -4,591) :
: -1,825 311 -2,650 132 -2,660 -222 309 -4,565 -4,691: -26 99
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.3 4.7 28.5 25.4 59.0 22.1 4.3 95.3 96.5: 4.7 3.5
: Total Traders: 333 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 103 62 104 83 106 44 17 271 259:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower last week after failing to hold new highs in early week trading on ideas that the market will move to a surplus situation in the coming year. Ideas of good supplies and less demand continue. China has been a buyer with cheaper prices to help provide some support. Thai Sugar has moved to China lately and in volume. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and the harvest has been slower. UNICA reported that sugar production had fallen almost 54% year on year to 856,160 tons.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 1740, 720, and 1690 July and resistance is at 1850, 1890, and 1940 July. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 488.00, 484.00, and 478.00 August, with resistance at 513.00, 521.00, and 531.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 13, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 925,866
: Positions :
: 107,002 156,299 193,858 326,620 460,759 230,042 50,289 857,523 861,204: 68,343 64,662
: Changes from: May 6, 2025 (Change in open interest: -2,228) :
: 4,195 1,682 2,108 -16,357 -1,177 2,812 -2,521 -7,242 92: 5,014 -2,320
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.6 16.9 20.9 35.3 49.8 24.8 5.4 92.6 93.0: 7.4 7.0
: Total Traders: 237 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 56 55 79 73 71 37 17 209 182:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher on concerns about West Africa production. There are still reports of increased flows of Cocoa from Nigeria and reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Early pod counts for the 2025/26 main crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production next season. Mid crop counts have not been strong Trends are mixed in London and in New York but are trying to turn up even as demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Demand ideas have been under pressure on the high prices currently seen for Cocoa due to bad production in West Africa. Cocoa imports are still subject to a 10% tariff at minimum.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 10000, 9650, and 9500 July, with resistance at 11170, 11520, and 11640 July. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 7130, 6930, and 6850 July, with resistance at 7960, 8220, and 8360 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 13, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 126,282
: Positions :
: 18,710 9,435 38,055 39,680 63,444 17,657 9,284 114,102 120,218: 12,181 6,064
: Changes from: May 6, 2025 (Change in open interest: 8,547) :
: 4,049 416 2,283 -254 5,153 -119 3 5,959 7,854: 2,588 693
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.8 7.5 30.1 31.4 50.2 14.0 7.4 90.4 95.2: 9.6 4.8
: Total Traders: 155 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 53 32 61 34 32 28 14 140 116:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322