Grains Report 05/19/2025

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets closed higher last week in recovery trading and on ideas that the market was very oversold. Minneapolis was much lower as rains moved into growing areas and the crop conditions showed significant improvement. Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, but Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada have been dry. Temperatures should be much cooler in most growing areas this week. Chart trends are mixed. Enough Wheat has always been available to the market and demand for US Wheat in export markets has been poor. Dry outlooks for the Black Sea regions are still around. It is hot and dry in important parts of the EU and China. Overall demand for world Wheat has been weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down. Support is at 504, 498, and 492 July, with resistance at 533, 540, and 548 July. Trends in Kansas City are down. Support is at 500, 494, and 488 July, with resistance at 531, 547, and 557 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 572, 566, and 560 July, and resistance is at 606, 617, and 621 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 13, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 554,268
: Positions :
: 67,970 183,499 179,025 130,693 60,669 132,226 95,210 509,913 518,402: 44,354 35,865
: Changes from: May 6, 2025 (Change in open interest: 28,729) :
: 3,807 15,176 7,830 7,893 -682 5,750 3,281 25,279 25,605: 3,450 3,124
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.3 33.1 32.3 23.6 10.9 23.9 17.2 92.0 93.5: 8.0 6.5
: Total Traders: 405 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 117 102 125 112 90 47 30 331 297:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 13, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 315,042
: Positions :
: 28,274 103,157 84,203 85,998 67,217 92,138 39,707 290,612 294,284: 24,429 20,758
: Changes from: May 6, 2025 (Change in open interest: 16,847) :
: -2,592 2,976 10,087 8,107 4,125 -348 -1,021 15,254 16,167: 1,592 680
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.0 32.7 26.7 27.3 21.3 29.2 12.6 92.2 93.4: 7.8 6.6
: Total Traders: 260 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 54 71 67 85 64 36 17 210 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 13, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 76,052 :
: Positions :
: 41,085 18,464 3,762 967 845 8,407 35,926 4,081 3,171 3,341 3,576 :
: Changes from: May 6, 2025 :
: 4,676 -1,027 335 -229 218 -1,963 2,430 814 -925 1,258 798 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 54.0 24.3 4.9 1.3 1.1 11.1 47.2 5.4 4.2 4.4 4.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 123 :
: 54 37 6 . 6 10 25 9 6 11 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE: Rice closed higher last week and might have reversed to a higher trend on the weekly charts. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is planted in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good so far by private sources and USDA.
General Comments:
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1259, 1225, and 1212 July and resistance is at 1310, 1324, and 1337 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 13, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 13,145 :
: Positions :
: 6,532 1,685 0 150 0 364 6,314 108 1,282 756 1,955 :
: Changes from: May 6, 2025 :
: 318 -426 0 1 0 69 446 -68 -376 98 438 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 49.7 12.8 0.0 1.1 0.0 2.8 48.0 0.8 9.8 5.8 14.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 77 :
: 20 15 0 . 0 . 23 . 14 10 9 :

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher last week as the market reacted to better planting weather in the Midwest. Cooler and drier weather is in the forecast for the coming week after a arm week last week. The somewhat bullish USDA report released on Monday has had little effect on the price action so far this week. Demand for Corn in domestic and world markets remains strong with sales and shipments of above 1.6 million tons in the latest reporting week. It has been warmer and drier in much of the Midwest and planting progress is expected to be much improved this week. Oats were lower, and the trends are about steady in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 432, 426, and 420 July, and resistance is at 452, 459, and 463 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 336, 332, and 326 July, and resistance is at 350, 353, and 362 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 13, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,081,437
: Positions :
: 106,237 292,628 637,133 665,515 789,476 484,448 152,025 1,893,333 1,871,262: 188,104 210,175
: Changes from: May 6, 2025 (Change in open interest: 60,681) :
: -41,591 40,649 58,050 52,503 -40,855 -17,419 6,956 51,544 64,800: 9,137 -4,119
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.1 14.1 30.6 32.0 37.9 23.3 7.3 91.0 89.9: 9.0 10.1
: Total Traders: 801 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 128 137 192 373 394 48 29 661 655:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher in response to the release of the proposed EPA biofuels mandates. A sharp increase in the use of biofuels is desired by the agency. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Brazil prices remain below those from the US in world markets as basis levels dropped there in response to the tariff news between the US and China. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Cooler temperatures and drier conditions are expected this week after az warm and wet late week last week.
Overnight News Philippines bought 145,000 tons of US Soybean Meal
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1046, 1037, and 1027 July, and resistance is at 1082, 1088, and 1105 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 290.00, 287.00, and 284.00 July, and resistance is at 300.00, 302.00, and 306.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4770, 4730, and 4610 July, with resistance at 5020, 5110, and 5260 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 13, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,047,835
: Positions :
: 110,072 101,123 342,524 329,040 479,620 207,897 56,060 989,533 979,327: 58,302 68,508
: Changes from: May 6, 2025 (Change in open interest: 60,917) :
: 14,714 -3,512 33,594 -1,617 28,883 7,364 2,500 54,056 61,465: 6,861 -548
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.5 9.7 32.7 31.4 45.8 19.8 5.4 94.4 93.5: 5.6 6.5
: Total Traders: 569 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 134 130 181 181 216 49 23 461 463:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 13, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 669,739
: Positions :
: 91,281 83,454 182,022 193,225 347,676 165,047 28,140 631,575 641,292: 38,164 28,447
: Changes from: May 6, 2025 (Change in open interest: 25,706) :
: 7,001 -4,454 19,956 -1,095 4,486 -1,772 4,448 24,092 24,436: 1,614 1,269
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.6 12.5 27.2 28.9 51.9 24.6 4.2 94.3 95.8: 5.7 4.2
: Total Traders: 350 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 82 85 113 97 110 45 20 289 270:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 13, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 649,674
: Positions :
: 65,077 155,862 158,299 246,642 256,249 123,244 45,099 593,262 615,509: 56,413 34,165
: Changes from: May 6, 2025 (Change in open interest: 16,611) :
: 6,575 2,064 7,057 -1,693 2,338 3,014 1,399 14,953 12,857: 1,658 3,754
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.0 24.0 24.4 38.0 39.4 19.0 6.9 91.3 94.7: 8.7 5.3
: Total Traders: 355 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 93 94 128 111 37 19 290 267:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher last week despite late week selling in response to weakness in Soybean Oil. It eas higher today as Soybean Oil rallied. Ideas of increasing production and reduced demand are still around. Chart trends are down. Canola was sharply lower last week on the price action in Chicago and forecasts for improved planting and development conditions in the Prairies. Trends are turning mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canadian goods were exempted from the new round of tariffs but still must deal with the tariffs previously imposed by the US. The weather has generally been good for planting in the Prairies but it is too dry in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 686.00, 680.00, and 662.00 July, with resistance at 716.00, 735.00, and 738.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3770, 3710, and 3650 August, with resistance at 3990, 4040, and 4130 August.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 13, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 17,132 :
: Positions :
: 11,648 9,000 322 4,257 420 559 0 321 1,682 1,004 2,120 :
: Changes from: May 6, 2025 :
: 840 -463 -120 939 0 -300 0 260 40 44 180 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 68.0 52.5 1.9 24.8 2.5 3.3 0.0 1.9 9.8 5.9 12.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 27 :
: 7 8 . 4 . . 0 . 4 4 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 13, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 261,584 :
: Positions :
: 92,710 173,641 6,479 11,959 2,137 107,210 19,674 20,762 13,220 14,987 16,680 :
: Changes from: May 6, 2025 :
: 2,788 9,546 1,312 1,127 -79 4,081 -3,096 5,545 -331 894 3,203 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 35.4 66.4 2.5 4.6 0.8 41.0 7.5 7.9 5.1 5.7 6.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 310 :
: 47 57 7 4 5 82 13 26 60 64 38 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions or isolated showers Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 967.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 965.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 965.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 975.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 972.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 970.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 970.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 980.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 930.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 877.50 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 3,950.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 438.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2888)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 189,063 lots, or .79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 – – – 4,150 4,117 4,150 33 0 0
Jul-25 4,173 4,200 4,161 4,182 4,165 4,184 19 133,216 152,296
Sep-25 4,171 4,203 4,166 4,189 4,170 4,188 18 45,553 93,327
Nov-25 4,089 4,117 4,082 4,101 4,092 4,102 10 5,665 41,346
Jan-26 4,084 4,107 4,075 4,091 4,084 4,093 9 1,552 8,444
Mar-26 4,079 4,106 4,071 4,088 4,082 4,092 10 3,077 5,698
Corn
Turnover: 623,717 lots, or 14.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,311 2,311 2,302 2,302 2,311 2,327 16 238 0
Jul-25 2,336 2,339 2,328 2,330 2,343 2,332 -11 442,269 1,332,491
Sep-25 2,350 2,355 2,344 2,348 2,358 2,349 -9 111,962 427,098
Nov-25 2,271 2,288 2,271 2,283 2,275 2,280 5 42,235 190,381
Jan-26 2,237 2,253 2,237 2,249 2,240 2,247 7 17,439 58,505
Mar-26 2,239 2,248 2,236 2,243 2,240 2,242 2 9,574 26,418
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,340,257 lots, or 38.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,731 2,740 2,700 2,700 2,752 2,766 14 2,054 0
Jul-25 2,738 2,748 2,720 2,725 2,744 2,732 -12 75,791 522,751
Aug-25 2,883 2,894 2,866 2,870 2,894 2,877 -17 18,256 196,963
Sep-25 2,895 2,910 2,880 2,886 2,902 2,893 -9 1,048,384 2,571,732
Nov-25 2,932 2,943 2,915 2,920 2,936 2,926 -10 39,720 337,627
Dec-25 2,964 2,980 2,960 2,964 2,973 2,968 -5 6,704 86,205
Jan-26 2,947 2,962 2,939 2,949 2,953 2,950 -3 138,994 625,014
Mar-26 2,847 2,857 2,839 2,843 2,853 2,847 -6 10,354 103,861
Palm Oil
Turnover: 570,504 lots, or 45.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 – – – 8,334 8,640 8,334 -306 204 0
Jun-25 8,216 8,282 8,200 8,254 8,224 8,244 20 6,068 5,196
Jul-25 8,088 8,170 8,082 8,134 8,122 8,132 10 3,291 12,050
Aug-25 8,014 8,102 8,014 8,062 8,060 8,078 18 177 893
Sep-25 7,942 8,044 7,942 7,998 8,006 8,006 0 537,030 395,122
Oct-25 7,948 8,012 7,938 7,970 7,974 7,984 10 110 1,164
Nov-25 7,954 8,016 7,946 7,976 7,988 7,988 0 173 816
Dec-25 7,962 8,024 7,956 7,972 7,994 7,992 -2 60 393
Jan-26 7,970 8,036 7,954 7,992 8,006 8,000 -6 23,231 89,590
Feb-26 7,992 8,022 7,962 7,976 7,992 7,994 2 36 880
Mar-26 8,006 8,028 7,972 8,018 8,006 8,004 -2 89 192
Apr-26 7,992 8,022 7,972 7,972 7,978 7,996 18 35 71
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 309,249 lots, or 24.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 – – – 7,910 7,950 7,910 -40 198 0
Jul-25 7,732 7,808 7,730 7,778 7,752 7,776 24 7,178 28,823
Aug-25 7,746 7,798 7,738 7,764 7,756 7,774 18 1,403 8,106
Sep-25 7,750 7,810 7,740 7,776 7,752 7,782 30 275,821 594,526
Nov-25 7,774 7,826 7,770 7,798 7,756 7,802 46 128 2,199
Dec-25 7,792 7,844 7,792 7,824 7,762 7,826 64 52 312
Jan-26 7,724 7,792 7,722 7,758 7,736 7,764 28 24,434 125,354
Mar-26 7,720 7,744 7,714 7,740 7,684 7,726 42 35 1,197
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322