Grains Report 05/16/2025

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets closed higher yesterday in recovery trading and on ideas that the market was very oversold. Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, but Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada have been dry. Big rains are in the forecast for the northern Great Plains and northern Midwest this weekend. Rain is moderate in the southern Midwest and Mid South. Chart trends are mixed. Enough Wheat has always been available to the market and demand for US Wheat in export markets has been poor. Dry outlooks for the Black Sea regions are still around. Overall demand for world Wheat has been weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down. Support is at 504, 498, and 492 July, with resistance at 533, 540, and 548 July. Trends in Kansas City are down. Support is at 500, 494, and 488 July, with resistance at 525, 531, and 547 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 572, 566, and 560 July, and resistance is at 606, 617, and 621 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday on follow through buying and ideas that the market had become oversold. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is planted in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good so far by private sources.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1225, 1212, and 1200 July and resistance is at 1292, 1310, and 1323 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed yesterday, with nearby months a little higher and new crop months a little lower as the market reacted to better planting weather in the Midwest. Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast. The somewhat bullish USDA report released on Monday has had little effect on the price action so far this week. Demand for Corn in domestic and world markets remains strong with sales and shipments of above 1.6 million tons in the latest reporting week. It has become warmer and drier in much of the Midwest and planting progress is expected to be much improved this week. Oats were lower, and the trends are about unchanged in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 432, 426, and 420 July, and resistance is at 452, 459, and 463 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 336, 332, and 326 July, and resistance is at 350, 353, and 362 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were sharply lower and Soybean Oil was limit down yesterday, but Soybean Meal was a little higher. Uncertainty about the government support of bio fuels amid increased supplies of Crude Oil weighed on futures. Brazil prices remain below those from the US in world markets as basis levels dropped there in response to the tariff news between the US and China. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Warmer temperatures and wet conditions are expected this weekend.
Overnight News
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1046, 1037, and 1027 July, and resistance is at 1082, 1088, and 1105 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 290.00, 287.00, and 284.00 July, and resistance is at 300.00, 302.00, and 306.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4890, 4850, and 4730 July, with resistance at 5260, 5300, and 5360 July.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower yesterday in response to weakness in Soybean Oil. Ideas of increasing production and reduced demand are still around. Chart trends are down. Canola was sharply lower yesterday on the [rice action in Chicgo and forecasts for improved planting and development conditions in the Prairies. Trends are turning mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canadian goods were exempted from the new round of tariffs but still must deal with the tariffs previously imposed by the US. The weather has generally been good for planting in the Prairies but it is too dry in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 686.00, 680.00, and 662.00 July, with resistance at 716.00, 735.00, and 738.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3840, 3770, and 3710 August, with resistance at 3990, 4040, and 4130 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions or isolated showers Temperatures should average near to below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 967.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 965.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 960.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 962.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 972.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 972.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 970.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 965.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 967.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 977.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 935.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 885.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 3,910.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 440.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2918)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 166,139 lots, or 6.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 – – – 4,117 4,117 4,117 0 0 0
Jul-25 4,164 4,181 4,150 4,168 4,181 4,165 -16 122,243 148,181
Sep-25 4,172 4,188 4,158 4,171 4,186 4,170 -16 35,819 90,667
Nov-25 4,095 4,107 4,079 4,089 4,103 4,092 -11 4,770 40,800
Jan-26 4,087 4,098 4,072 4,081 4,095 4,084 -11 1,171 8,277
Mar-26 4,083 4,095 4,071 4,080 4,091 4,082 -9 2,136 5,288
Corn
Turnover: 710,937 lots, or 16.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 – – – 2,311 2,311 2,311 0 281 1,915
Jul-25 2,345 2,353 2,333 2,335 2,345 2,343 -2 569,031 1,353,678
Sep-25 2,357 2,367 2,350 2,351 2,359 2,358 -1 91,261 432,184
Nov-25 2,275 2,281 2,269 2,271 2,277 2,275 -2 27,233 194,163
Jan-26 2,241 2,245 2,235 2,238 2,243 2,240 -3 13,789 57,585
Mar-26 2,240 2,245 2,234 2,237 2,243 2,240 -3 9,342 26,217
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,670,261 lots, or 48.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,770 2,770 2,735 2,740 2,751 2,752 1 408 15,024
Jul-25 2,758 2,762 2,731 2,738 2,747 2,744 -3 90,648 521,534
Aug-25 2,902 2,907 2,876 2,885 2,890 2,894 4 29,564 193,711
Sep-25 2,920 2,922 2,890 2,899 2,903 2,902 -1 1,310,312 2,536,619
Nov-25 2,948 2,953 2,923 2,934 2,936 2,936 0 57,062 328,129
Dec-25 2,987 2,992 2,959 2,971 2,977 2,973 -4 8,387 84,184
Jan-26 2,960 2,974 2,940 2,951 2,958 2,953 -5 155,611 604,828
Mar-26 2,873 2,873 2,842 2,849 2,858 2,853 -5 18,269 101,699
Palm Oil
Turnover: 555,727 lots, or 44.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 8,920 8,920 8,320 8,724 8,340 8,640 300 4 232
Jun-25 8,260 8,270 8,180 8,220 8,332 8,224 -108 7,718 5,391
Jul-25 8,152 8,164 8,072 8,112 8,232 8,122 -110 3,907 11,853
Aug-25 8,054 8,104 8,018 8,046 8,194 8,060 -134 242 848
Sep-25 8,012 8,050 7,954 7,984 8,104 8,006 -98 514,650 397,913
Oct-25 8,014 8,022 7,938 7,962 8,094 7,974 -120 166 1,159
Nov-25 7,988 8,020 7,946 7,982 8,108 7,988 -120 155 814
Dec-25 8,022 8,030 7,954 8,006 8,106 7,994 -112 121 403
Jan-26 8,034 8,046 7,958 7,988 8,102 8,006 -96 28,634 92,306
Feb-26 8,008 8,034 7,970 8,020 8,120 7,992 -128 42 855
Mar-26 8,006 8,030 7,958 7,986 8,114 8,006 -108 62 160
Apr-26 7,754 8,014 7,754 7,974 8,086 7,978 -108 26 58
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 427,748 lots, or 33.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 – – – 7,950 7,950 7,950 0 0 1,198
Jul-25 7,778 7,788 7,702 7,744 7,836 7,752 -84 7,821 28,309
Aug-25 7,772 7,786 7,712 7,750 7,826 7,756 -70 1,036 7,653
Sep-25 7,776 7,792 7,706 7,754 7,840 7,752 -88 378,133 602,914
Nov-25 7,802 7,810 7,718 7,782 7,892 7,756 -136 361 2,191
Dec-25 7,808 7,820 7,726 7,792 7,872 7,762 -110 197 317
Jan-26 7,762 7,776 7,678 7,744 7,836 7,736 -100 39,987 123,982
Mar-26 7,710 7,716 7,650 7,688 7,766 7,684 -82 213 1,220
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322