Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Business Inventories, PPI MoM & YoY, Retail Sales MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, Initial Jobless Claims, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales Control Group MoM, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Philly Fed Business Conditions, Philly Fed CAPEX Index, Philly Fed Employment, Philly Fed New Orders, Philly Fed Prices Paid, PPI, PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM & YoY, and Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM at 7:30 A.M., Fed Chair Powell Speech at 7:40 A.M., Industrial Production MoM & YoY, Manufacturing Production MoM & YoY, and Capacity Utilization at 8:15 A.M., Business Inventories MoM, NAHB Housing Market Index, and Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate and NOPA Crush Report at 11:00 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 1:05 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
The EIA’s weekly Energy Stocks showed that the US crude oil inventories were up 3.454 barrels from the previous week, versus trade estimates that called for a 1-million barrel decrease. Compared to a year ago, stocks were down 15.2 million barrels, marking the 28th consecutive week of year-over-year declines. On the other hand the Strategic Petroleum Reserves stocks rose by 528,000 barrels larger than a year ago to mark the 55th consecutive week of year-over-year increases. Total US stocks of 842 million barrels are 10% above the 2023 low but have been at low levels not seen since 2000 for the last 3 years.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Forecast Wet Outside of HRW Belt; Flooding A Concern in Dakotas/MN:
The Central US forecast on balance a bit drier in the eastern Midwest but is otherwise consistent with prior runs. The Southern Plains stays arid into late month. All other areas face an active pattern of rainfall as the mean position of the Jetstream moves southward. Wheat disease is an issue. Too much rain falls across the Dakotas and parts of MN if the 7-day forecast verify. NOAA’s most recent 7-day forecast shows that accumulation upward of 3-5” favors SD, ND, southern MN and pats of IA. The risk of planting delays will be in ND, where ARC projects corn seeding progress this weekend to be only 62-65% complete. The remainder of the crop there will be planted in the latter part of May. Yet, concern over Midwest drought stays low, and meaningful dryness on June 1st will be confined to the S Plains and NE.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Recovers; Fresh Input Sought:
CBOT corn ended slightly higher as the market contends with near-oversold chart patterns. Lasting bull trends will struggle amid further erosion drought coverage across the US Plains, while Ag Resources (ARC) highlighted in last night’s report, the lack of major supply competition from Brazil. Relative strength in the Brazilian real has acted to support USD-based corn prices there. The real’s recovery in value reached a 17-month high. Ukrainian fob premiums remain firm. ARC expects both the bulls and bears struggle for leverage in the near term. The next lasting trend will be defined by N Hemisphere weather in summer and the success of US trade negotiations. ARC maintains a strategy of keeping positions small as volatility is the name of the game at the moment. Brazilian safrinha harvest results will be monitored with interest amid regional issues in southern producing areas and the return of heat/complete dryness to Mato Grosso & Goias since May 1st .This reflects a normal end to Brazil’s wet season but it’s impact on ear weights is awaited. ARC sees Dec bound to a range of $4.30-$4.60 over the next 45 days. The July-Dec spread at $0.5 is undervalued.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Bulls & Bears Jockey for Position. The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/15/2025
We kickoff the day with Business Inventories, PPI MoM & YoY, Retail Sales MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, Initial Jobless Claims, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales Control Group MoM, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Philly Fed Business Conditions, Philly Fed CAPEX Index, Philly Fed Employment, Philly Fed New Orders, Philly Fed Prices Paid, PPI, PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM & YoY, and Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM at 7:30 A.M., Fed Chair Powell Speech at 7:40 A.M., Industrial Production MoM & YoY, Manufacturing Production MoM & YoY, and Capacity Utilization at 8:15 A.M., Business Inventories MoM, NAHB Housing Market Index, and Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate and NOPA Crush Report at 11:00 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 1:05 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
The EIA’s weekly Energy Stocks showed that the US crude oil inventories were up 3.454 barrels from the previous week, versus trade estimates that called for a 1-million barrel decrease. Compared to a year ago, stocks were down 15.2 million barrels, marking the 28th consecutive week of year-over-year declines. On the other hand the Strategic Petroleum Reserves stocks rose by 528,000 barrels larger than a year ago to mark the 55th consecutive week of year-over-year increases. Total US stocks of 842 million barrels are 10% above the 2023 low but have been at low levels not seen since 2000 for the last 3 years.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Forecast Wet Outside of HRW Belt; Flooding A Concern in Dakotas/MN:
The Central US forecast on balance a bit drier in the eastern Midwest but is otherwise consistent with prior runs. The Southern Plains stays arid into late month. All other areas face an active pattern of rainfall as the mean position of the Jetstream moves southward. Wheat disease is an issue. Too much rain falls across the Dakotas and parts of MN if the 7-day forecast verify. NOAA’s most recent 7-day forecast shows that accumulation upward of 3-5” favors SD, ND, southern MN and pats of IA. The risk of planting delays will be in ND, where ARC projects corn seeding progress this weekend to be only 62-65% complete. The remainder of the crop there will be planted in the latter part of May. Yet, concern over Midwest drought stays low, and meaningful dryness on June 1st will be confined to the S Plains and NE.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Recovers; Fresh Input Sought:
CBOT corn ended slightly higher as the market contends with near-oversold chart patterns. Lasting bull trends will struggle amid further erosion drought coverage across the US Plains, while Ag Resources (ARC) highlighted in last night’s report, the lack of major supply competition from Brazil. Relative strength in the Brazilian real has acted to support USD-based corn prices there. The real’s recovery in value reached a 17-month high. Ukrainian fob premiums remain firm. ARC expects both the bulls and bears struggle for leverage in the near term. The next lasting trend will be defined by N Hemisphere weather in summer and the success of US trade negotiations. ARC maintains a strategy of keeping positions small as volatility is the name of the game at the moment. Brazilian safrinha harvest results will be monitored with interest amid regional issues in southern producing areas and the return of heat/complete dryness to Mato Grosso & Goias since May 1st .This reflects a normal end to Brazil’s wet season but it’s impact on ear weights is awaited. ARC sees Dec bound to a range of $4.30-$4.60 over the next 45 days. The July-Dec spread at $0.5 is undervalued.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374