Bill Moore
William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
AgMaster Report – 05/15/2025
JULY CORN
Since Mid-April, July Corn has experienced a 60 cent break (500-440) – while discounting the Trump Tariffs & the prospects for a record crop of 15.8 BB! However exports have been excellent – todays sales – 2.1 mmt! And the May WASDE lowered the 2025-26 stockpiles to the low end of traders estimate! There is no weather premium in the mkt with a long way to go before the crop is made! And it looks as if trade deals will be made much like with the UK! Week-end US-China talks lowered tariffs significantly & established a 90 day reprieve!
JULY BEANS
After rallying to 2-month highs, beans were hit with a barrage of bearish news including sharply lower energy prices & renewed concern about the US 2026 Biofuel Policy sending soy oil limit-down which has carried over to July Beans! Yet, the May WASDE on 5-12 reflected a 4.330 BB crop under 2024’s 4.366 crop & also lowered the US 2025-26 stockpiles! Much like corn, beans are far removed from being made with weather scares certainly coming and a US-China deal in the works!
JULY WHT
Dryness in the plains & a Russian stocks drawdown from 27.5mmt to 20.3mmt has fueled a 25 cent rally in July Wht from an oversold condition to possibly 3 higher closes! Also, the mkt has ignored positive results from the Kansas Wht Tour – displaying solid bullish divergence & confirming Tuesday’s Key Reversal higher!
JUNE CAT
The long anticipated top in the wildly overbought cattle mkt – finally arrived yesterday – with a sweeping Key Reversal down – that has seen the mkt – with todays action, correct $8 off its highs in 2 short days! Demand is still excellent – as cattle is in the midst of the Grilling Season Demand – the best of the year! This mkt action feels like much more than a correction – as the previous setbacks have been limited to $1-2 for the $25 (192-217) up surge!
JUNE HOGS
The mere fact that June Hogs held their current trading range while June Cat plummeted yesterday – is confirming evidence of a changing of the guard! Pork vs the high-flying beef is a real deal in the supermarket – a fact not lost on bargain-conscious consumers – & seems to indicate a “changing of the guard” for the upside meat leadership! And the technical action this week corroborates this!
Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337