Softs Report 05/14/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower last yesterday in response to the monthly USDA supply and demand updates that left ending stocks for next year above trade expectations. There are still reports of better weather for planting in the southern US and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported poor weekly export sales. Planting conditions remain good. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week, and farmers are in the fields. More showers are in the forecast for the Great Plains. Planting progress is about the same as the five year average and conditions of the crops should be good. Demand is a concern after w week of poor export sales.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 67.74 ct/lb. ICE said that 4 notices were posted for May delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 14 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 66.20, 65.70, and 65.10 July, with resistance of 69.10, 70.00 and 70.50 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher again yesterday in response to the USDA reports. USDA adjusted US and Florida production slightly higher than in previous estimates in its reports yesterday. Production estimates remain well below those from a year ago. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather abut also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. A tight market and higher prices should remain a feature for futures traders.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 411 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down. Support is at 212.00, 200.00, and 188.00 July, with resistance at 255.00, 265.00, and 275.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday in correction trading. Prices are still very high overall and reflect the report of tight supplies and the production concerns in Latin America for Arabica production. There are still ideas of good demand against ideas of less supplies available to the market. The lack of offers from Brazil continues even with the Robusta harvest started. Vietnam is done with its harvest. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 338.87 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 9 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 315 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 363.00, 348.00, and 337.00 July, and resistance is at 385.00, 393.00 and 397.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4880, 4760, and 4640 July, with resistance at 5370, 5520, and 5550 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were higher yesterday in recovery trading. Ideas of good supplies and less demand continue. China has been a buyer with cheaper prices to help provide some support. Thai Sugar has moved to China lately and in volume. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 1740, 720, and 1690 July and resistance is at 1850, 1890, and 1940 July. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 493.00, 488.00, and 484.00 August, with resistance at 513.00, 521.00, and 531.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were much higher. There are still reports of increased flows of Cocoa from Nigeria and reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and perhaps less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Trends are mixed in London and in New York but are trying to turn up even as demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Demand ideas have been under pressure on the high prices currently seen for Cocoa due to bad production in West Africa. Cocoa imports are still subject to a 10% tariff at minimum.
Overnight News: ICE said that 5 contracts were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,093 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 9300, 8900, and 8400 July, with resistance at 10080, 10450, and 10870 July. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 6710, 6480, and 6150 July, with resistance at 7370, 7560, and 7960 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322