Softs Report 05/13/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher last yesterday in response to the Turmp-China tariff news and the monthly USDA supply and demand updates that left ending stocks for next year above trade expectations. There are still reports of better weather for planting in the southern US and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported poor weekly export sales. Planting conditions remain good. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week, and farmers are in the fields. More showers are in the forecast for the Great Plains. Planting progress is about the same as the five year average and conditions of the crops should be good. Demand is a concern after w week of poor export sales.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 67.74 ct/lb. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for May delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 10 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 66.20, 65.70, and 65.10 July, with resistance of 69.10, 70.00 and 70.50 July.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
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2023/24 2024/25 Est. 2025/26 Proj. 2025/26 Proj.
Item Apr May
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Million Acres
Planted 10.23 11.18 NA 9.87*
Harvested 6.44 7.81 NA 8.37*

Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 899 886 NA 832*

Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.65 3.15 NA 4.80
Production 12.07 14.41 NA 14.50
Imports 0.00 0.01 NA 0.01
Supply, Total 16.72 17.57 NA 19.31
Domestic Use 1.85 1.70 NA 1.70
Exports, Total 11.75 11.10 NA 12.50
Use, Total 13.60 12.80 NA 14.20
Unaccounted 2/ -0.03 -0.03 NA -0.10
Ending Stocks 3.15 4.80 NA 5.20
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 76.1 63.0 NA 62.0
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WASDE – 660 – 18 May 2025

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
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Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
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2025/26 Proj.
World
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 78.40 117.81 44.82 118.08 44.83 -0.25 78.38
World Less China
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 40.79 88.81 37.82 81.58 44.73 -0.25 41.36
United States
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 4.80 14.50 0.01 1.70 12.50 -0.10 5.20
Total Foreign
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 73.60 103.31 44.82 116.38 32.33 -0.15 73.18
Major Exporters 4/
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 26.31 59.74 4.05 35.63 28.32 -0.15 26.30
Major Importers 8/
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 44.89 40.24 37.73 76.02 2.47 0.00 44.37
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WASDE – 660 – 28 May 2025

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday in response to the USDA reports and in response to news that Trump and China have pulled back from the brink in the tariff wars. USDA adjusted YUS and Florida production slightly higher than in previous estimates in its reports yesterday. Production estimates remain well below those from a year ago. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather abut also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. A tight market and higher prices should remain a feature for futures traders.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 411 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 212.00, 200.00, and 188.00 July, with resistance at 255.00, 265.00, and 275.00 July.

The United States all orange forecast for the 2024-2025 season is 2.46 million tons, up slightly from the previous forecast but down 8 percent from the 2023-2024 utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 11.6 million boxes (523,000 tons), is up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 36 percent from last season’s utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 4.58 million boxes (206,000 tons), down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 32 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 7.05 million boxes (317,000 tons), is up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 38 percent from last season’s utilization.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were sharply lower yesterday on news that the US and China have greatly reduced tariffs they are charging each other. This caused a major rally in the stock market and in the exchange rate of the US Dollar. Prices are still very high overall and reflect the report of tight supplies and the production concerns in Latin America for Arabica production. There are still ideas of good demand against ideas of less supplies available to the market. The lack of offers from Brazil continues even with the Robusta harvest started. Vietnam is done with its harvest. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 335.49 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 13 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 406 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 363.00, 348.00, and 337.00 July, and resistance is at 385.00, 393.00 and 397.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4880, 4760, and 4640 July, with resistance at 5370, 5520, and 5550 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower yesterday on the Trump-China tariff news, and ideas of good supplies and less demand continue. China has been a buyer with cheaper prices to help provide some support. Thai Sugar has moved to China lately and in volume. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 1740, 720, and 1690 July and resistance is at 1820, 1850, and 1880 July. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 493.00, 488.00, and 484.00 August, with resistance at 508.00, 513.00, and 521.00 August.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
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2023/24 2024/25 Est. 2024/25 Est. 2025/26 Proj.
Item Apr May May
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1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1843 2131 2131 2032
Production 2/ 9313 9369 9311 9285
Beet Sugar 5172 5391 5334 5180
Cane Sugar 4141 3978 3977 4105
Florida 2079 1930 1929 2017
Louisiana 2022 2049 2049 2088
Texas 40 0 0 0
Imports 3840 2961 2944 2475
TRQ 3/ 1788 1533 1533 1419
Other Program 4/ 300 200 200 200
Non-program 1752 1228 1212 855
Mexico 521 497 497 669
High-tier tariff/other 1231 731 715 186
Total Supply 14995 14461 14387 13791
Exports 249 100 100 100
Deliveries 12534 12345 12255 12255
Food 12428 12240 12150 12150
Other 5/ 106 105 105 105
Miscellaneous 81 0 0 0
Total Use 12864 12445 12355 12355
Ending Stocks 2131 2016 2032 1436
Stocks to Use Ratio 16.6 16.2 16.4 11.6
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Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
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Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
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1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2024/25 Est.
Apr 1418 4859 189 4553 957 956
May 1418 4811 189 4614 723 1081
2025/26 Proj.
Apr NA NA NA NA NA NA
May 1081 5094 142 4569 667 1081
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WASDE – 660 – 17 May 2025

COCOA
General Comments: New York was lower and London was higher yesterday as the Trump-China tariff news caused a major rally in the US Dollar and a new alignment in Cocoa futures. There are still reports of increased flows of Cocoa from Nigeria and reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and perhaps less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Trends are mixed in London and in New York but are trying to turn up even as demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Demand ideas have been under pressure on the high prices currently seen for Cocoa due to bad production in West Africa. Cocoa imports are still subject to a 10% tariff at minimum.
Overnight News: ICE said that 3 contracts were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,088 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 8900, 8400, and 8080 July, with resistance at 10080, 10450, and 10870 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6480, 6150, and 6050 July, with resistance at 7090, 6890, and 7090 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322