Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with NFIB Business Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M., Real Earnings, Core Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, CPI, and CPI s.a. at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Total Household Debt at 10:00 A.M., 52-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
The US government posted a $258 billion surplus in April, up 23% from a year ago and the 2nd largest monthly budget surplus on record. April surpluses are not uncommon due to annual tax deadline, bit this year’s surplus was boosted by tariff collections. Net customs duties totaled $16 billion, a 9 billion increase over a year ago, as the US collected an average of $500 million per day during the month of April. Additionally, there was $85 billion in deferred tax receipts from California and calendar effects that shifted some April expenses into earlier months. The 90-day cool-off period from the weekend’s negotiations with China expected to lower the federal government’s tariff revenues in the coming months.
Corn Analysis of USDA’s May WASDE
USDA corn data leans supportive. Most surprising was WASDE projecting 25/26 US corn exports at 2,675 Mil Bu, which if realized will be the second on record and up slightly from the current year. USDA’s logic is centered on a rebound in global corn trade, which makes sense, but a large portion of this recovery in importer demand hinges upon China and whether Chinese imports recover to or above 10 MMT’s, vs. a projected 8 MMT’s in 24/25. Ag Resources (ARC) maintains a US production estimate of 15.9 Bil Bu amid larger projected seedings. Recent successful US-China trade talks heighten the debate over new crop demand considerably, and the market must access not only different yield scenarios but also different export scenarios. ARC has 2 balance sheets featuring 25/26 corn supply/demand, one with a Chinese trade agreement and one without that would show stocks swelling to 2.2 billion, and if China returns to the US market stocks are forecast at 1.86 Bil Bu. The return of China also places a much heavier burden on Midwest summer weather.
Ass President Trump visits with a big business conference which should create even further business deals with large foreign investment in the US as market. The conference is set in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This could open the door for mor deals in agriculture, energy, and computer chips for a start. I expect some further announcements by the end of the day.
Monday’s preliminary CBOT open interest fell 12,481 contracts in corn but rose 16,325 contracts in soybeans and 4,610 in wheat. Open interest in soy products rose 2,699 in soybean oil and 2,236 soybean meal. The managed money added to their net short wheat and long soybean futures positions. Funds have pushed their net short position to a new record high which places the market at risk to a sharp recovery with any bull spark.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or email dflynn@pricegroup.com
Future Foreign US Investor Talks in Riyadh. The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/13/2025
We kickoff the day with NFIB Business Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M., Real Earnings, Core Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, CPI, and CPI s.a. at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Total Household Debt at 10:00 A.M., 52-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
The US government posted a $258 billion surplus in April, up 23% from a year ago and the 2nd largest monthly budget surplus on record. April surpluses are not uncommon due to annual tax deadline, bit this year’s surplus was boosted by tariff collections. Net customs duties totaled $16 billion, a 9 billion increase over a year ago, as the US collected an average of $500 million per day during the month of April. Additionally, there was $85 billion in deferred tax receipts from California and calendar effects that shifted some April expenses into earlier months. The 90-day cool-off period from the weekend’s negotiations with China expected to lower the federal government’s tariff revenues in the coming months.
Corn Analysis of USDA’s May WASDE
USDA corn data leans supportive. Most surprising was WASDE projecting 25/26 US corn exports at 2,675 Mil Bu, which if realized will be the second on record and up slightly from the current year. USDA’s logic is centered on a rebound in global corn trade, which makes sense, but a large portion of this recovery in importer demand hinges upon China and whether Chinese imports recover to or above 10 MMT’s, vs. a projected 8 MMT’s in 24/25. Ag Resources (ARC) maintains a US production estimate of 15.9 Bil Bu amid larger projected seedings. Recent successful US-China trade talks heighten the debate over new crop demand considerably, and the market must access not only different yield scenarios but also different export scenarios. ARC has 2 balance sheets featuring 25/26 corn supply/demand, one with a Chinese trade agreement and one without that would show stocks swelling to 2.2 billion, and if China returns to the US market stocks are forecast at 1.86 Bil Bu. The return of China also places a much heavier burden on Midwest summer weather.
Ass President Trump visits with a big business conference which should create even further business deals with large foreign investment in the US as market. The conference is set in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This could open the door for mor deals in agriculture, energy, and computer chips for a start. I expect some further announcements by the end of the day.
Monday’s preliminary CBOT open interest fell 12,481 contracts in corn but rose 16,325 contracts in soybeans and 4,610 in wheat. Open interest in soy products rose 2,699 in soybean oil and 2,236 soybean meal. The managed money added to their net short wheat and long soybean futures positions. Funds have pushed their net short position to a new record high which places the market at risk to a sharp recovery with any bull spark.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or email dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374