Weekly Ag Markets Update – 05/12/2025

Wheat: All three markets closed lower last week, and the Winter Wheat markets traded to new lows for the move.  Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, but Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada have been dry.  Rain is moderate in the southern Midwest and Mid-South.  Chart trends are turning down in Winter Wheat markets and mixed in Minneapolis.  Enough Wheat has always been available to the market and demand for US Wheat in export markets has been poor.  Dry outlooks for the Black Sea regions are still a main feature.  Overall demand for world Wheat has been weak.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

 

Corn: Corn closed lower last week as the market reacted to better planting weather in the Midwest.  Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast.  Demand for Corn in domestic and world markets remains strong with sales and shipments of above 1.6 million tons in the latest reporting week.  It has become warmer and drier in much of the Midwest and planting progress is expected to be much improved this week.  Oats were lower, and the trends are mixed in this market after futures could not hold at new highs for the move early in the week.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: All three markets were lower last week on reports that Brazil prices were now competitive with those from the US in world markets.  China and the US were meeting this weekend in Geneva, Switzerland.  No breakthroughs were expected but it was hoped that the talks would be smooth and cordial.  The reports of demand have remained solid for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America.  Deferred months were lower as the weather is forecast to be much better for planting this week.  Warmer temperatures and drier conditions are expected this week.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice: Rice closed lower last week despite improved weekly export sales.  The report showed improved sales but was not strong enough to excite anyone as the sales were not that strong.  This week marks the release of the USDA production and supply and demand reports.  The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand.  Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher.  Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.  Rice is planted in southern growing areas now and is about half done farther to the north.  Condition has been rated as good so far by private sources.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil futures were lower last week.  Ideas of increasing production and reduced demand are still around.  Chart trends are down.  Canola was higher last week despite forecasts for improved planting and development conditions in the Prairies.  Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.  Canadian goods were exempted from the new round of tariffs but still must deal with the tariffs previously imposed by the US.  The weather has generally been good for planting in the Prairies but it is too dry in some areas.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton: Cotton was lower last week on better weather for planting in the southern US and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported poor weekly export sales.  Planting conditions remain good.  Some rain was reported in west Texas last week, and farmers are in the fields.  More showers are in the forecast for the Great Plains.  Planting progress is about the same as the five year average and conditions of the crops should be good.  Demand is a concern after w week of poor export sales.  The potential for war between India and Pakistan as well as the tariffs imposed on and by China are hurting the demand potential.  China and the US started to talk over the weekend in Switzerland and it was hoped that the meetings would be cordial even with no deals announced.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: The charts show a big fall in prices came three months ago, when prices fell from a high above 5.50/gallon to just above 2.00 per gallon.  Futures gave back in one month the vast majority of the rally seen in all of 2024.  Selling seen last month took futures to the lows and tested some long term support areas on the monthly charts.  Additional support is seen about every 25 cents lower on the charts, but we think prices could hold the 2.00 level if that area is tested again.  Resistance is seen at 3.25.00/gallon tested last month, then 3.50 and above 4.00/gallon.  Futures got very oversold on the test of 2.00/gallon but could test that level again before attempting much of a rally.  The weekly charts show that the market is trying to establish a low, but the daily charts show a weak close on May 9 that could lead to that test of the lows in the market.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  New York was higher, and London was lower last week in range trading as both search for directions in prices.  Prices are still very high overall and reflect the report of tight supplies and the production concerns in Latin America for Arabica production.  There are still ideas of good demand against ideas of less supplies available to the market.  The lack of offers from Brazil continues even with the Robusta harvest started.  Vietnam is done with its harvest.  Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term.  CONAB has estimated that Coffee production is 55.7 million bags, a new record production.  Arabica production is estimated down at 37 million bags, but Robusta production is estimated to be much higher at 18.7 million bags.  It said exports in the last year were 11.7 million bags. Colombia produced 703,000 tons of Coffee in April, down 5% from the previous year.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

Sugar: Both markets were last week yesterday on speculative short covering, but ideas of good supplies and less demand continue.  China has been a buyer with cheaper prices to help provide some support.  Thai Sugar has moved to China lately and in volume.  There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year.  CONAB said that Brazil’s sugar output in the center-south region is expected to hit 41.8 million metric tons in the current 2025/26 season, up 3.7% from last year

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa: New York and London were higher last week despite reports of increased flows of Cocoa from Nigeria and reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market anticipates good demand and perhaps less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana.  Trends are mixed in London and in New York but are trying to turn up even as demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates.  Demand ideas have been under pressure on the high prices currently seen for Cocoa due to bad production in West Africa.  Cocoa imports are now subject to a 10% tariff at minimum.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322