This last week in the markets was a less than joyful one if you’re a bull. Double digit losses for much of the grains and even some new contract lows were put in. With Mother’s Day this weekend, it is fitting that the market seems to need some motherly instincts. One of which is nurturing. Being a parent comes with some unique learning curves. I still haven’t gotten the whole nurturing thing down, as my oldest just turned 6, but to my wife it was second nature. Happy Mother’s Day to all those moms out there!
Corn posted another round of weakness this week, as July fell 19 ¼ cents (4.1%) and December slipping 8 ¼ cents (1.83%). Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop was 40% planted as of May 4, ahead of the 5-year average. EIA showed ethanol production slipping back 20,000 barrels per day to 1.02 million bpd in the week of 5/2. Stocks of ethanol were down another 198,000 barrels to 25.191 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.662 MMT for the week that ended on May 1, the highest in 19 weeks. That brought the total export commitments to 60.411 MMT, which is 93% of USDA’s full-year export forecast and lagging the 5-year average of 95% for this week. March export data showed corn shipments totaling 7.34 MMT (289 mbu), which takes the marketing year total to 38.01 MMT (1.496 bbu). Friday’s CFTC data indicated spec funds in corn futures and options slashing 57,436 contracts from their net long position as of May 6, taking their net long to just 13,893 contracts by Tuesday.
The wheat complex continued to be under pressure this week. Chicago was down 21 1/4 cents in the July contract (-3.91%). July Kansas City posted a 23 ¾ cent loss (4.39%). MPLS futures were 17 1/2 cents (2.86%) lower this week. Monday’s NASS Crop Progress report indicated a total of 44% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of 5/4, vs. the 5-year average pace of 34%. Winter wheat condition ratings were tallied at 51% good/excellent, up 2%, with the Brugler500 index steady at 334. Export Sales data tallied US wheat 2024/25 business at 69,659 MT in the week of 5/1. Bookings for the 2025/26 crop totaled 492,978 MT. That took 2024/25 export sale commitments to 21.63 MMT, which is now 97% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 104% average selling pace. Wheat exports in March totaled 1.799 MMT (66.1 mbu) according to Census data, taking marketing shipments to 17.686 MMT (650 mbu). Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting back their large net short position in CBT wheat futures and options by 7,681 contracts as of Tuesday to 113,734 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 72,249 contracts, a record and increase of another 4,971 contracts during the week of May 6.
Soybeans slipped back by just 6 ¼ cents this week (0.59%), with November steady. July soybean meal was weaker, slipping back $2.80/ton (-0.94%), with bean oil down 86 points (1.74%) on the week. Crop Progress data showed soybean planting at 30% across the country, well ahead of the 5-year average pace. Thursday morning’s Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to 376,653 MT in the week of May 2. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 47.72 MMT. That is 96% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, 1 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. Census data from Tuesday showed March soybean exports at 3.498 MMT (128.54 mbu), which takes marketing year shipments to 42 MMT (1.545 bbu). Meal exports were a March record of 1.593 MMT, with bean oil exports at 155,959 MT, a 15-year high. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options at a net long of 21,870 contracts on Tuesday, a reduction of 16,332 contracts. Meal increased their net short to a record 103,457 contracts.
Live cattle closed posted stronger trade this week, as June was up $3.575. The cash market continued the climb this week, with southern sales mainly at $218-220 and northern trade at $225-228, back up $1 to $4 from the week prior. Feeders were also in a rally mode this week with May up $3.025. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down just 24 cents week/week to $296.14. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week. Choice was up $3.07 (0.9%) to $345.97, while Select was $5.82 higher (+1.8%) to $331.17. Weekly beef production was down just slightly from last week at 489.3 million lbs this week, which was also 6.7% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 2.6%, as slaughter is 6.2% lower. Export Sales data showed a total of 7,642 MT of beef sold in the week ending on May 1, which was a calendar year low. Shipments slipped back from the week prior to 15,122 MT. Census data converted to a carcass basis showed beef exports during March totaling 255.76 million lbs. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding another 4,498 contracts to their net long positions as of Tuesday to 133,338 contracts. Managed money added back to their net long in feeder cattle futures and options by 1,541 contracts to 29,442 contracts by May 6.
Hogs slipped back another $1.77 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 50 cents this week at $90.07 as of May 7. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down 55 cents this week (-0.6%) to $97.83/cwt. Just the belly was reported lower, down $7.53. Pork production was down 2% from last week but 3.1% above the same week a year ago at 528.9 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 1.8%, as slaughter is 2.2% lower. USDA reported a total of 24,228 MT of pork sold for export in the week ending on May 1, back down from the previous week. Shipments were the second lowest in the calendar year at 25,573 MT. March pork exports total 641.02 million lbs according to Census data converted to a carcass basis. Friday’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 2,979 contracts to their net long position as of 5/6 to a net position of 70,622 contracts.
Cotton futures were weaker again this week, with losses of 180 points for July. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 21% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, ahead the 20% pace from the 5-year average. USDA’s Export Sales report showed a total of 65,764 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on May 1, with 37,376 RB for new crop. Shipments were an 8-week high at 394,872 RB. Census data shows cotton exports excluding linters totaling 1.834 million bales for March, which was up 31.45% from February and 12.24% larger than the same month in 2024. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 13 points lower this week, to 54.81 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds cutting back another 5,182 contracts from their net short position as of May 6 to 21,049 contracts.
Market Watch
We start next week with the May WASDE and Crop Production reports released at 11:00 am CDT. The weekly Export Inspections report is out that morning, with the Crop Progress report released that afternoon. On Tuesday morning the CPI data will be published. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday per normal, with May grain futures expiring, as well as May lean hog futures and options. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Thursday morning, as well as PPI data. NOPA will also release their crush data that morning.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December Corn is back to the March 31 low, picking some stops off below $4.36 ½, getting to $4.35 ¾ on Thursday. That also held a spike of an uptrend line off the $4.28 contract low and the March low at $4.40. All this is setting up for a set of new crop numbers this next Monday from the USDA. Stochastics are oversold and may be going for a double hump buy signal, though we still need the second cross. MACD says to stick bearish holding this area is important for not going and testing the LOC low of $4.28. The initial test on a rally would be the 18-day moving average at $4.51 ½, Seasonally, odds are high that we go back to test the Feb high at $4.79 ¾ at some point in the next couple months, implying some sort of weather rally.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Nurture. Ag Marketing Report 05/12/2025
This last week in the markets was a less than joyful one if you’re a bull. Double digit losses for much of the grains and even some new contract lows were put in. With Mother’s Day this weekend, it is fitting that the market seems to need some motherly instincts. One of which is nurturing. Being a parent comes with some unique learning curves. I still haven’t gotten the whole nurturing thing down, as my oldest just turned 6, but to my wife it was second nature. Happy Mother’s Day to all those moms out there!
Corn posted another round of weakness this week, as July fell 19 ¼ cents (4.1%) and December slipping 8 ¼ cents (1.83%). Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop was 40% planted as of May 4, ahead of the 5-year average. EIA showed ethanol production slipping back 20,000 barrels per day to 1.02 million bpd in the week of 5/2. Stocks of ethanol were down another 198,000 barrels to 25.191 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.662 MMT for the week that ended on May 1, the highest in 19 weeks. That brought the total export commitments to 60.411 MMT, which is 93% of USDA’s full-year export forecast and lagging the 5-year average of 95% for this week. March export data showed corn shipments totaling 7.34 MMT (289 mbu), which takes the marketing year total to 38.01 MMT (1.496 bbu). Friday’s CFTC data indicated spec funds in corn futures and options slashing 57,436 contracts from their net long position as of May 6, taking their net long to just 13,893 contracts by Tuesday.
The wheat complex continued to be under pressure this week. Chicago was down 21 1/4 cents in the July contract (-3.91%). July Kansas City posted a 23 ¾ cent loss (4.39%). MPLS futures were 17 1/2 cents (2.86%) lower this week. Monday’s NASS Crop Progress report indicated a total of 44% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of 5/4, vs. the 5-year average pace of 34%. Winter wheat condition ratings were tallied at 51% good/excellent, up 2%, with the Brugler500 index steady at 334. Export Sales data tallied US wheat 2024/25 business at 69,659 MT in the week of 5/1. Bookings for the 2025/26 crop totaled 492,978 MT. That took 2024/25 export sale commitments to 21.63 MMT, which is now 97% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 104% average selling pace. Wheat exports in March totaled 1.799 MMT (66.1 mbu) according to Census data, taking marketing shipments to 17.686 MMT (650 mbu). Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting back their large net short position in CBT wheat futures and options by 7,681 contracts as of Tuesday to 113,734 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 72,249 contracts, a record and increase of another 4,971 contracts during the week of May 6.
Soybeans slipped back by just 6 ¼ cents this week (0.59%), with November steady. July soybean meal was weaker, slipping back $2.80/ton (-0.94%), with bean oil down 86 points (1.74%) on the week. Crop Progress data showed soybean planting at 30% across the country, well ahead of the 5-year average pace. Thursday morning’s Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to 376,653 MT in the week of May 2. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 47.72 MMT. That is 96% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, 1 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. Census data from Tuesday showed March soybean exports at 3.498 MMT (128.54 mbu), which takes marketing year shipments to 42 MMT (1.545 bbu). Meal exports were a March record of 1.593 MMT, with bean oil exports at 155,959 MT, a 15-year high. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options at a net long of 21,870 contracts on Tuesday, a reduction of 16,332 contracts. Meal increased their net short to a record 103,457 contracts.
Live cattle closed posted stronger trade this week, as June was up $3.575. The cash market continued the climb this week, with southern sales mainly at $218-220 and northern trade at $225-228, back up $1 to $4 from the week prior. Feeders were also in a rally mode this week with May up $3.025. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down just 24 cents week/week to $296.14. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week. Choice was up $3.07 (0.9%) to $345.97, while Select was $5.82 higher (+1.8%) to $331.17. Weekly beef production was down just slightly from last week at 489.3 million lbs this week, which was also 6.7% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 2.6%, as slaughter is 6.2% lower. Export Sales data showed a total of 7,642 MT of beef sold in the week ending on May 1, which was a calendar year low. Shipments slipped back from the week prior to 15,122 MT. Census data converted to a carcass basis showed beef exports during March totaling 255.76 million lbs. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding another 4,498 contracts to their net long positions as of Tuesday to 133,338 contracts. Managed money added back to their net long in feeder cattle futures and options by 1,541 contracts to 29,442 contracts by May 6.
Hogs slipped back another $1.77 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 50 cents this week at $90.07 as of May 7. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down 55 cents this week (-0.6%) to $97.83/cwt. Just the belly was reported lower, down $7.53. Pork production was down 2% from last week but 3.1% above the same week a year ago at 528.9 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 1.8%, as slaughter is 2.2% lower. USDA reported a total of 24,228 MT of pork sold for export in the week ending on May 1, back down from the previous week. Shipments were the second lowest in the calendar year at 25,573 MT. March pork exports total 641.02 million lbs according to Census data converted to a carcass basis. Friday’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 2,979 contracts to their net long position as of 5/6 to a net position of 70,622 contracts.
Cotton futures were weaker again this week, with losses of 180 points for July. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 21% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, ahead the 20% pace from the 5-year average. USDA’s Export Sales report showed a total of 65,764 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on May 1, with 37,376 RB for new crop. Shipments were an 8-week high at 394,872 RB. Census data shows cotton exports excluding linters totaling 1.834 million bales for March, which was up 31.45% from February and 12.24% larger than the same month in 2024. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 13 points lower this week, to 54.81 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds cutting back another 5,182 contracts from their net short position as of May 6 to 21,049 contracts.
Market Watch
We start next week with the May WASDE and Crop Production reports released at 11:00 am CDT. The weekly Export Inspections report is out that morning, with the Crop Progress report released that afternoon. On Tuesday morning the CPI data will be published. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday per normal, with May grain futures expiring, as well as May lean hog futures and options. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Thursday morning, as well as PPI data. NOPA will also release their crush data that morning.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December Corn is back to the March 31 low, picking some stops off below $4.36 ½, getting to $4.35 ¾ on Thursday. That also held a spike of an uptrend line off the $4.28 contract low and the March low at $4.40. All this is setting up for a set of new crop numbers this next Monday from the USDA. Stochastics are oversold and may be going for a double hump buy signal, though we still need the second cross. MACD says to stick bearish holding this area is important for not going and testing the LOC low of $4.28. The initial test on a rally would be the 18-day moving average at $4.51 ½, Seasonally, odds are high that we go back to test the Feb high at $4.79 ¾ at some point in the next couple months, implying some sort of weather rally.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.