Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Fed Kugler Speech at 9:25 A.M., NY Fed Treasury Purchases 4 to 6 yrs. at 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Crop Production, USDA Supply/Demand, and WASDE at 11:00 A.M., Monthly Budget Statement at 1:00 P.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The Commitment of Traders showed a week of selling in the CBOT markets and a week of buying in the CME markets. Funds paired market length in corn, soybean, and soybean oil markets, and added shorts to the soybean meal and wheat markets. Funds covered positions in Chicago wheat, which was offset by selling KC and Minneapolis wheat markets. Funds added length in CME hogs, live cattle, and feeder cattle, which lifted the combined livestock position to a 10-week high. Funds hold a small net long position in corn and soybean markets ahead of today’s May WASDE report, but the net short combined wheat position of 209,000 is record large for May.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Forecast Maintains Wetter Pattern in 11-15 Day Period; Heat Pulses in Western Ag Belt This Week:
The Central US forecast view remains non-threatening into late month, but close attention will be paid to extended range guidance and actual rainfall after May 20th . The EU, GFS, and AI models agree that widespread rain is probable across the E Plains & Midwest May 21-25, but details will be important. In the near term, warmth/dryness allows planting to speed along. Row crop planting will near completion in the next 10-14 days, but soil moisture in NE, the Dakotas, MN, and TX will be accelerated next week. Highs in the upper 80’s & low 90’s will spread across TX and the Central/Northern Plains. Low subsoil/drought is working to fuel the arrival of summer-like temperatures. The NW Corn Belt needs watching in areas where soil moisture is low and in decline.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Stabilizes; Fresh Bearish Input Needed to Sustain Downtrend:
CBOT corn futures recovered ahead of the weekend. Next week’s focus will be partially on the details of USDA’s first official new crop balance sheet but mostly US-Chinese trade talks and extended-range US forecast. Rain will be needed across the Plains and NW Midwest following the arrival of summer temps this week. Ag Resources (ARC) maintains the risk of trade talks on bullish surprises following negative sentiment recently. USDA’s May WASDE will lack excitement. With euphoria centered on the China trade deal, pharmaceutical Executive Order to lower prices, peace talks with nuclear countries India & Pakistan & movement with Russia & Ukraine talks which will know if Putin is serious with Wednesday meeting in Turkey which will dominate headlines. It’s known 25/26 corn end stocks will be placed between 1.9-2.1 Bil. Dec CBOT corn at $4.40 fully accounts for such stocks and stocks/use of 15%. USDA’s May release provides the base from which adjustments will be made on weather patterns & trade negotiations. A complex, volatile summer kies ahead. Odds are high weather threats emerge, and so ARC targets 20-30 cent rallies to extend hedges. The managed funds length has been trimmed to just 13,893 contracts. The downside in December corn is $4.30-$4.35.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or email dflynn@pricegroup.com
China Trade Deal Has Markets Flying Ahead of WASDE. The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/12/2025
We kickoff the day with Fed Kugler Speech at 9:25 A.M., NY Fed Treasury Purchases 4 to 6 yrs. at 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Crop Production, USDA Supply/Demand, and WASDE at 11:00 A.M., Monthly Budget Statement at 1:00 P.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The Commitment of Traders showed a week of selling in the CBOT markets and a week of buying in the CME markets. Funds paired market length in corn, soybean, and soybean oil markets, and added shorts to the soybean meal and wheat markets. Funds covered positions in Chicago wheat, which was offset by selling KC and Minneapolis wheat markets. Funds added length in CME hogs, live cattle, and feeder cattle, which lifted the combined livestock position to a 10-week high. Funds hold a small net long position in corn and soybean markets ahead of today’s May WASDE report, but the net short combined wheat position of 209,000 is record large for May.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Forecast Maintains Wetter Pattern in 11-15 Day Period; Heat Pulses in Western Ag Belt This Week:
The Central US forecast view remains non-threatening into late month, but close attention will be paid to extended range guidance and actual rainfall after May 20th . The EU, GFS, and AI models agree that widespread rain is probable across the E Plains & Midwest May 21-25, but details will be important. In the near term, warmth/dryness allows planting to speed along. Row crop planting will near completion in the next 10-14 days, but soil moisture in NE, the Dakotas, MN, and TX will be accelerated next week. Highs in the upper 80’s & low 90’s will spread across TX and the Central/Northern Plains. Low subsoil/drought is working to fuel the arrival of summer-like temperatures. The NW Corn Belt needs watching in areas where soil moisture is low and in decline.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Stabilizes; Fresh Bearish Input Needed to Sustain Downtrend:
CBOT corn futures recovered ahead of the weekend. Next week’s focus will be partially on the details of USDA’s first official new crop balance sheet but mostly US-Chinese trade talks and extended-range US forecast. Rain will be needed across the Plains and NW Midwest following the arrival of summer temps this week. Ag Resources (ARC) maintains the risk of trade talks on bullish surprises following negative sentiment recently. USDA’s May WASDE will lack excitement. With euphoria centered on the China trade deal, pharmaceutical Executive Order to lower prices, peace talks with nuclear countries India & Pakistan & movement with Russia & Ukraine talks which will know if Putin is serious with Wednesday meeting in Turkey which will dominate headlines. It’s known 25/26 corn end stocks will be placed between 1.9-2.1 Bil. Dec CBOT corn at $4.40 fully accounts for such stocks and stocks/use of 15%. USDA’s May release provides the base from which adjustments will be made on weather patterns & trade negotiations. A complex, volatile summer kies ahead. Odds are high weather threats emerge, and so ARC targets 20-30 cent rallies to extend hedges. The managed funds length has been trimmed to just 13,893 contracts. The downside in December corn is $4.30-$4.35.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or email dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374