Softs Report 05/08/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday after moving higher in the early part of the day. The move higher came on news that the US and China were planning to meet this weekend in Switzerland to discuss easing the trade tensions, but the rally faded as planting conditions remain good. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week, and farmers are in the fields. More showers are in the forecast for the Great Plains. Planting progress is about the same as the five year average and conditions of the crops should be good.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 68.51 ct/lb. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for May delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 10 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 67.20, 66.20, and 65.70 July, with resistance of 69.10, 70.00 and 71.60 July.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 8
For the week ended May 1, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
upland cotton 65.8 37.4 11033.3 11645.3 2891.0 1242.2
pima cotton 27.1 0.0 434.0 304.8 109.8 1.9

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed mostly lower and the trends remain down in the market. Nearby months closed a little higher and July could be forming a double bottom. USDA has reduced Florida production mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 411 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 244.00, 233.00, and 212.00 July, with resistance at 275.00, 287.00, and 301.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was a little higher and London was closed yesterday. Prices are still very high and reflect the report of tight supplies. There are still ideas of good demand against ideas of less supplies available to the market. The lack of offers from Brazil continues even with the Robusta harvest started. Vietnam is done with its harvest. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term. CONAB has estimated that Coffee production is 55.7 million bags, a new record production. Arabica production is estimated down at f37 million bags, but Robusta production is estimated much higher at 18.7 million bags. It said exports in the last year were 11.7 million bags. Trends are up on the daily charts.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 355.00 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 9 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 293 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 380.00, 375.00, and 363.00 July, and resistance is at 397.00, 407.00 and 419.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4880, 4760, and 4640 July, with resistance at 5370, 5520, and 5550 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower yesterday on a stronger US Dollar and as ideas of good supplies and less demand continue. China has been a buyer with cheaper prices to help provide some support. Thai Sugar has moved to China lately and in volume. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year. Sugar production in Brazil’s center-south region was 731,000 metric tons in the first half of April, UNICA said. CONAB said that Brazil’s sugar output in the center-south region is expected to hit 41.8 million metric tons in the current 2025/26 season, up 3.7% from last year
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 1690, 1640, and 1610 July and resistance is at 1760, 1790, and 1820 July. Trends in London are down. Support is at 484.00, 478.00, and 472.00 August, with resistance at 508.00, 513.00, and 521.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher as the US Dollar turned weaker. Trends are mixed in London and in New York, and demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Demand ideas have been under pressure on the high prices currently seen for Cocoa due to bad production in West Africa. Cocoa imports are now subject to a 10% tariff at minimum.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,085 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 8400, 8080, and 7810 July, with resistance at 10080, 10450, and 10870 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6050, 5910, and 5690 July, with resistance at 6850, 6890, and 7090 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322