Softs Report 05/06/2025

DJ U.S. March Coffee, Cocoa Imports-May 6
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Mar 2025—- —-Feb 2025—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 120,906,346 266,598,493 109,024,972 240,400,063
coffee, roasted 10,140,128 22,358,982 8,668,055 19,113,061
coffee, soluble
instant 6,864,550 15,136,333 6,248,630 13,778,229
-Cocoa-
cocoa beans 59,503,585 131,205,405 30,165,416 66,514,742
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 3,711,035 8,182,832 2,395,228 5,281,478
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 10,297,354 22,705,666 9,824,859 21,663,814
cocoa paste,
not defatted 10,641,277 23,464,016 5,635,507 12,426,293
cocoa paste
defatted 7,892,315 17,402,555 6,675,000 14,718,375
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 9,237,079 20,367,759 8,051,832 17,754,290
cocoa powder,
sweetened 263,858 581,807 102,779 226,628
confectioners
coating 6,247,684 13,776,143 5,000,298 11,025,657
candy containing
chocolate 18,031,445 39,759,336 14,236,919 31,392,406

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher yesterday on a weaker US Dollar. Trends are turning up in this market as planting conditions remain good. China said that the US had reached out fo them to start trade talks and that such talks were possible if conditions were met, including a reduction in tariffs. The news was considered a positive development on Friday. The demand side of the market is not robust but is hanging in there as the weekly export sales showed about 108,000 bales sold. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week, and farmers are in the fields. More showers are in the forecast for the Great Plains. Planting progress is about the same as the five year average and conditions of the crops should be good.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 67.55 ct/lb. ICE said that 1 notice was posted for May delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 10 contracts. USDA said that Cotton is now 21% planted, from15% last week, 23% last year, and 20% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 67.20, 66.20, and 65.70 July, with resistance of 68.70, 70.00 and 71.60 July.

DJ U.S. Mar Cotton Exports-May 6
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Mar 25 Feb 25 Jan 25 Mar 24
Upland, under 1 inch 10,113,347 8,467,410 3,952,958 14,160,166
1 to 1 1/8 inch 115,602,412 106,085,480 76,528,277 89,426,716
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 9,642,559 3,899,471 7,067,238 3,937,541
upland 1 1/8 and over 264,056,940 185,402,689 138,424,575 248,392,517
All cotton 399,415,258 303,855,050 225,973,048 355,916,940
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Mar 25 Feb 25 Jan 25 Mar 24
Upland, under 1 inch 46,450 38,890 18,156 65,037
1 to 1 1/8 inch 530,958 487,247 351,492 410,734
upland 1 1/8 and over 44,288 17,910 32,460 18,085
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 1,212,804 851,548 635,779 1,140,858
All cotton 1,834,499 1,395,595 1,037,886 1,634,713

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher and highlighted tight supplies for the market. Ethe trends remain down in the market. USDA has reduced Florida production mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 411 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 244.00, 233.00, and 212.00 July, with resistance at 275.00, 287.00, and 301.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was a little higher and London was closed yesterday. Prices are still very high and reflect the report of tight supplies. There are still ideas of good demand against ideas of less supplies available to the market. The lack of offers from Brazil continues even with the Robusta harvest started. Vietnam is done with its harvest. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term. Trends are up on the daily charts.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 354.52 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 10 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 260 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 380.00, 375.00, and 363.00 July, and resistance is at 397.00, 407.00 and 419.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4880, 4760, and 4640 July, with resistance at 5370, 5520, and 5550 July.

DJ Brazilian Coffee Production Forecast at a Record-High — Market Talk

0939 ET – Brazilian agricultural agency Conab says that coffee production in Brazil is expected to grow by 2.7% from the previous year, to an estimated 55.7 million bags, a new record. That’s 1.1% higher than the record-size crop reported in 2023, the agency says in a note. Conab also says that exports of Brazilian coffee totaled 11.7 million 60kg bags in the first three months of 2025, which is down 1% from the same time last year. Coffee futures prices hit a record-high in mid-February, when the most-active contract on the ICE rose to $4.29 a pound. They’ve since given back some of that gain, with coffee trading flat at $3.88 a pound now. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

SUGAR
General Comments: New York was higher yesterday on a weaker US Dollar as ideas of good supplies and less demand continue. China has been a buyer with cheaper prices to help provide some support. Thai Sugar has moved to China lately and in volume. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year. Sugar production in Brazil’s center-south region was 731,000 metric tons in the first half of April, UNICA said. CONAB said that Brazil’s sugar output in the center-south region is expected to hit 41.8 million metric tons in the current 2025/26 season, up 3.7% from last year
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 1690, 1640, and 1610 July and resistance is at 1760, 1790, and 1820 July. Trends in London are down. Support is at 488.00, 484.00, and 478.00 August, with resistance at 508.00, 513.00, and 521.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York was mixed and London was closed as the US Dollar turned weaker. Trends are mixed in London and in New York, and demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Demand ideas have been under pressure on the high prices currently seen for Cocoa due to bad production in West Africa. Cocoa imports are now subject to a 10% tariff at minimum.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,085 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 8400, 8080, and 7810 July, with resistance at 10080, 10450, and 10870 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6050, 5910, and 5690 July, with resistance at 6650, 6850, and 6890 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322