Bill Moore
William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
AgMaster Report – 05/01/2025
JULY CORN
Yesterday, the mkt succumbed to massive fund selling as negative fundamentals pushed the mkt lower! They included faster-than-average planting, First Notice Day & no trade deal yet between US/China! But today the mkt recovered due to solid flash sales the last 2 days of two 120,000 mt shipments to Spain & unknown! Plus, analysts felt the Tuesday’s down was overdone! Export inspections are running 30 % over 2024 & there’s a long way to go before the crop is made!
JULY BEANS
The weather premium was extracted from the July Bean contract on Tues as dryness returned to the bean harvest areas – allowing advanced planting! Plus, much like the July Corn contract, First Notice Day pressured bean prices! Also, the mkt is awaiting word of trade negotiations between US & China! However, non-China demand remains strong as a flash sale of beans was announced yesterday! Impressively, July Beans has maintained a tight range (1040-1070) – over 50 cents off the 2025 lows despite the tariff wars! Any weather issues between now & harvest will be very impactful on bean prices!
JULY WHT
Improved rainfall in the Plains has pushed both Chicago & KC Wht to new contract lows – & also into strong support at 510-520! US Wht is the cheapest around & the funds are heavily short – this tandem could very well produce a sharp short-covering rally – as much of the bearish wht fundamentals are dialed in!
JUNE CAT
After 13 straight up days with cattle & feeder prices make new all-time highs daily, the “raging bull” finally succumbed to an uber-overbought condition, upside MO slowed & the mkt has corrected $2.00 today! However, the correction could be short-lived as we’re amidst the best demand period of the year – “the outdoor grilling season” & cash is still strong
JUNE HOGS
June Hogs began their correction from their extreme over-bought condition on Tues & continued today – falling $4.00 off the recent highs! The mkt anxiously awaits export demand from new trade deals but is already benefitting from the outdoor grilling season currently underway! As well, pork enjoys an economic advantage in the supermarket over beef! So we expect only a correction -not a top in the mkt!
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