Spring is officially here. Well, technically it’s been here for over a month, but the weather has finally joined in on the party. As the temps start to warm up, my ever-growing honey-do list has shifted from finishing my (still not completed) basement to getting the landscaping finished… Spring also means planting is making its progress across the country. As planters have gotten off to (for the most part) a decent start, we are quickly approaching the time where we find ourselves amid a weather market. Whether it will be too wet, too dry, or just right, is yet to be determined, though I’m sure the market will be nothing short of volatile either way!
Corn futures extended the weakness this week, with May slipping back 3 1/2 cents (0.73%). December fell back 10 ¼ cents this week. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop was 12% planted as of April 20, now ahead of the 5-year average. EIA showed ethanol production back up 21,000 barrels per day to 1.033 million bpd in the week of 4/18. Stocks of ethanol fell 1.333 million barrels to 25.481 million barrels. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.15 MMT for the week that ended on April 17. That brought the total export commitments to 57.734 MMT, which is 89% of USDA’s full-year export forecast and lagging the 5-year average of 92% for this week. Friday’s CFTC data showed spec funds in corn futures and options trimming back 11,768 contracts from their net long position as of April 22, taking their net long to just back to 112,805 contracts by Tuesday.
The wheat complex fell lower this week. Chicago was down 18 ¾ cents in the May contract (-3.42%). May Kansas City posted a 19 1/2 cent loss (3.5%). MPLS futures saw a 13 3/4 cent (2.27%) drop. Monday’s NASS Crop Progress report indicated a total of 17% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of 4/20, vs. the 5-year average pace of 12%. The winter wheat crop was 15% headed, 2% ahead of the 5-year average. Condition ratings were tallied at 45% good/excellent, down 2%, with a 325 on the Brugler500 index, a 4-point drop. Export Sales data tallied US wheat 2024/25 business at a net reduction of 145,016 MT in the week of 4/17. Bookings for the 2025/26 crop totaled 371,712 MT. That took 2024/25 export sale commitments to 21.483 MMT, which is now 96% of the new USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 103% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting 6,510 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of Tuesday 89,929 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 56,624 contracts, an increase of 9,252 contracts during the week of April 22.
Soybeans took back the previous week’s losses, with a 13 ¼ cent (1.28%) gain. November was up just 2 ½ cents. May soybean meal was weaker, down $5.60/ton (-1.89%), with bean oil up 141 points (2.95%) on the week. Crop Progress data showed soybean planting at 8% across the country, ahead of the 5% 5-year average pace. Thursday morning’s Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to 277,015 MT in the week of April 17. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 47.056 MMT. That is 95% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, matching the 5-year average pace. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options at a net long of 31,067 contracts on Tuesday, an increase of 4,898 contracts.
Live cattle closed with stronger trade and new all-time highs for the in delivery April contract, as June was up $4.175 this week. The cash market was higher this week, with southern sales at $212-213 and northern trade at $218, back up $2 to $5 from the week prior. Feeders held higher, as May posted a $3.675 (1.28%) gain. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $3.69 week/week to $289.88. Monthly Cold Storage data showed March 31 beef stocks at 426.9 million lbs, 0.7% above the same month last year. but down 2.07% from February. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week. Choice was up $4.96 (1.5%) to $336.48, while Select was $4.56 higher (+1.4%) to $320.11. Weekly beef production was down 3.4% at 485.6 million lbs this week, 6.5% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 2.1%, as slaughter is 5.8% lower. USDA reported beef export bookings dropping back off to 10,336 MT in the week of 4/17, a 3-week low. Shipments came in at 13,200 MT, the second lowest for the marketing year. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding back 13,937 contracts to their net long positions as of Tuesday to 120,460 contracts. Managed money pushed their net long in feeder cattle futures and options to 28,061 contracts by April 22, a 2,146 contract addition.
Hogs posted a $3.125 gain in the June contract this week (3.19%). The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.06 this week at $87.27 as of April 23. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $1.04 this week (+5.5%) to $98.04/cwt. Just the butt was reported lower, with the belly up $3.78. Pork production was up 2.5% from last week and 3.1% below the same week a year ago at 527.4 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 2.4%, as slaughter is 2.8% lower. Pork stocks at the end of March totaled 422.254 million lbs, which was the lowest for the end of March since 1997 and a slight drop from February. Export Sales data showed just 5,848 MT in pork sales in the week ending on April 24. Pork shipments were tallied at 27,129 MT, the second lowest for the year. Friday’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back 18,235 contracts to their net long position as of 4/22 to a net position of 58,457 contracts.
Cotton futures extended the bounce back this week with July up 167 points (2.49%). NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 11% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, matching the 11% pace from the 5-year average. Export Sales data showed just 104,005 RB of cotton sold in the week ending on April 17, a 4-wek low. Shipments came in at an 8-week low of 292,153 RB. Commitments are now at 10.859 million RB, which is 107% of the USDA forecast, ahead of the 103% 5-year average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 145 points higher this week, to 54.55 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds cutting back 4,981 contracts from their net short position as of April 22 to 37,437 contracts.
Market Watch
We start next week with the Export Inspections report on Monday morning and the Crop Progress report out that afternoon. PCE data will be released on Wednesday morning. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be published on Wednesday per normal. Wednesday is also the first notice day for May grains and the last trade for April live cattle futures. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Thursday morning, with the monthly Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems report. Friday is the expiration day for May live cattle serial options.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn had one of its worst weeks since late February. Still, we are sitting above $4.55 ½ , which is the 18-day moving average after we spiked to the porous 100-day at $4.53 ¼ this week. That came following a Stochastics sell signal, with a 2/3 speedline off the March 31 low holding at $4.52 ¾. That support holding is key for the bulls, as to not going back to testing the previous low at $4.36 ½, with there also being a shallow uptrend line at $4.38 ¼. MACD is bullish, with momentum bars growing short. That looks very similar to a duck formation, and the good news for bulls is that we don’t trust ducks. Seasonality would suggest we eventually take out that $4.79 ¾ high, though that normally comes in May. June, or July.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Springtime. Ag Marketing Report 04/28/2025
Spring is officially here. Well, technically it’s been here for over a month, but the weather has finally joined in on the party. As the temps start to warm up, my ever-growing honey-do list has shifted from finishing my (still not completed) basement to getting the landscaping finished… Spring also means planting is making its progress across the country. As planters have gotten off to (for the most part) a decent start, we are quickly approaching the time where we find ourselves amid a weather market. Whether it will be too wet, too dry, or just right, is yet to be determined, though I’m sure the market will be nothing short of volatile either way!
Corn futures extended the weakness this week, with May slipping back 3 1/2 cents (0.73%). December fell back 10 ¼ cents this week. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop was 12% planted as of April 20, now ahead of the 5-year average. EIA showed ethanol production back up 21,000 barrels per day to 1.033 million bpd in the week of 4/18. Stocks of ethanol fell 1.333 million barrels to 25.481 million barrels. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.15 MMT for the week that ended on April 17. That brought the total export commitments to 57.734 MMT, which is 89% of USDA’s full-year export forecast and lagging the 5-year average of 92% for this week. Friday’s CFTC data showed spec funds in corn futures and options trimming back 11,768 contracts from their net long position as of April 22, taking their net long to just back to 112,805 contracts by Tuesday.
The wheat complex fell lower this week. Chicago was down 18 ¾ cents in the May contract (-3.42%). May Kansas City posted a 19 1/2 cent loss (3.5%). MPLS futures saw a 13 3/4 cent (2.27%) drop. Monday’s NASS Crop Progress report indicated a total of 17% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of 4/20, vs. the 5-year average pace of 12%. The winter wheat crop was 15% headed, 2% ahead of the 5-year average. Condition ratings were tallied at 45% good/excellent, down 2%, with a 325 on the Brugler500 index, a 4-point drop. Export Sales data tallied US wheat 2024/25 business at a net reduction of 145,016 MT in the week of 4/17. Bookings for the 2025/26 crop totaled 371,712 MT. That took 2024/25 export sale commitments to 21.483 MMT, which is now 96% of the new USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 103% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting 6,510 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of Tuesday 89,929 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 56,624 contracts, an increase of 9,252 contracts during the week of April 22.
Soybeans took back the previous week’s losses, with a 13 ¼ cent (1.28%) gain. November was up just 2 ½ cents. May soybean meal was weaker, down $5.60/ton (-1.89%), with bean oil up 141 points (2.95%) on the week. Crop Progress data showed soybean planting at 8% across the country, ahead of the 5% 5-year average pace. Thursday morning’s Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to 277,015 MT in the week of April 17. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 47.056 MMT. That is 95% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, matching the 5-year average pace. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options at a net long of 31,067 contracts on Tuesday, an increase of 4,898 contracts.
Live cattle closed with stronger trade and new all-time highs for the in delivery April contract, as June was up $4.175 this week. The cash market was higher this week, with southern sales at $212-213 and northern trade at $218, back up $2 to $5 from the week prior. Feeders held higher, as May posted a $3.675 (1.28%) gain. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $3.69 week/week to $289.88. Monthly Cold Storage data showed March 31 beef stocks at 426.9 million lbs, 0.7% above the same month last year. but down 2.07% from February. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week. Choice was up $4.96 (1.5%) to $336.48, while Select was $4.56 higher (+1.4%) to $320.11. Weekly beef production was down 3.4% at 485.6 million lbs this week, 6.5% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 2.1%, as slaughter is 5.8% lower. USDA reported beef export bookings dropping back off to 10,336 MT in the week of 4/17, a 3-week low. Shipments came in at 13,200 MT, the second lowest for the marketing year. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding back 13,937 contracts to their net long positions as of Tuesday to 120,460 contracts. Managed money pushed their net long in feeder cattle futures and options to 28,061 contracts by April 22, a 2,146 contract addition.
Hogs posted a $3.125 gain in the June contract this week (3.19%). The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.06 this week at $87.27 as of April 23. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $1.04 this week (+5.5%) to $98.04/cwt. Just the butt was reported lower, with the belly up $3.78. Pork production was up 2.5% from last week and 3.1% below the same week a year ago at 527.4 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 2.4%, as slaughter is 2.8% lower. Pork stocks at the end of March totaled 422.254 million lbs, which was the lowest for the end of March since 1997 and a slight drop from February. Export Sales data showed just 5,848 MT in pork sales in the week ending on April 24. Pork shipments were tallied at 27,129 MT, the second lowest for the year. Friday’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back 18,235 contracts to their net long position as of 4/22 to a net position of 58,457 contracts.
Cotton futures extended the bounce back this week with July up 167 points (2.49%). NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 11% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, matching the 11% pace from the 5-year average. Export Sales data showed just 104,005 RB of cotton sold in the week ending on April 17, a 4-wek low. Shipments came in at an 8-week low of 292,153 RB. Commitments are now at 10.859 million RB, which is 107% of the USDA forecast, ahead of the 103% 5-year average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 145 points higher this week, to 54.55 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds cutting back 4,981 contracts from their net short position as of April 22 to 37,437 contracts.
Market Watch
We start next week with the Export Inspections report on Monday morning and the Crop Progress report out that afternoon. PCE data will be released on Wednesday morning. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be published on Wednesday per normal. Wednesday is also the first notice day for May grains and the last trade for April live cattle futures. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Thursday morning, with the monthly Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems report. Friday is the expiration day for May live cattle serial options.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn had one of its worst weeks since late February. Still, we are sitting above $4.55 ½ , which is the 18-day moving average after we spiked to the porous 100-day at $4.53 ¼ this week. That came following a Stochastics sell signal, with a 2/3 speedline off the March 31 low holding at $4.52 ¾. That support holding is key for the bulls, as to not going back to testing the previous low at $4.36 ½, with there also being a shallow uptrend line at $4.38 ¼. MACD is bullish, with momentum bars growing short. That looks very similar to a duck formation, and the good news for bulls is that we don’t trust ducks. Seasonality would suggest we eventually take out that $4.79 ¾ high, though that normally comes in May. June, or July.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.