Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10;00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates at 2:00 P.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The Commitment of Traders showed another week of fund buying across the 10 principal agriculture markets. Funds added to market length in soybeans, soybean oil, hogs, live cattle, and feeder cattle markets, and covered net short positions in Chicago and MN wheat markets. Funds liquidated market length in the corn and added to net short positions in soybean meal and KC wheat. Across the 10 markets, funds were net buyers for the week of 33,958 contracts, lifting the net long position to a 7-weekj high of 260,921 contracts. Funds have bought 227,487 contracts the last 2 weeks, the most since mid-October.
US Planting Advances Normally Through Weekend; Active Showers Return to S Plains, E Midwest April 28-May 2;
The central US forecast remains broadly favorable as additional drought erosion lies ahead for TX, OK, and northeast IA. Welcome precipitation has been recorded in KS, TX, OK, and IA. Seeding progress has been active from NE, the Dakota’s, and OH. Also, weekend rainfall will be confined to TX,OK and far eastern Midwest. This allows for rapid progress on Sat-Sun in MO, IA, MN, WI, and IL. Ag Resources (ARC) expects corn seeding nationally to be 24-26% complete, vs. 22% on average. Soybean progress is forecast to reach 20-22%, vs. 10% on average. A wet pattern resumes early this week and continues into May 10th. Drier and warmer weather conditions are desired. NOAA’s 7-day forecast shows low-level flooding/ponding is again possible in AR, MO, TN, W KY, and the far southern Midwest, with totals reaching upwards of 2.0-3.50”. The EU, GFS, and AI models generally agree that additional moderate/heavy rain favors the entire US Plains – where it’s needed – bit also AR, MO, and IL in the 8-15 day period. It’s a classic wet mid-spring climate pattern. However, ARC doubts planting will grind to a halt for lasting periods into mid-May. Enough open windows are forecast to allow corn/soybean seeding to reach 45-55% completion in the next three weeks, and odds of yield drags are only increased if more than 50% of row crops are planted after May 20th . The coming further shrinking of drought coverage is important. The risk is wheat that is heading which demands drier weather to prevent yield losses due to disease and denitrification of the soils. Sunshine is is desired across the South Central US into mid-May.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Rallies as Cash Market Firms; Mexico Buys More Old Crop from US; Dec to Struggle on Drought Erosion:
Global corn markets ended higher for a second day amid hope for progress in US-Indian negotiations and as interior US basis is more actively working to stimulate producer sales. Basis in Central IL last week was quoted at $.14 over, a new seasonal high. Upside risk is present in July, but spreads and cash markets will carry the burden of accounting for old crop supply tightening amid normal seeding pace. The July-Dec spreads has recovered to $.30/BU. ARC projects the spread to test $.40 prior to expiration. Yet, it remains imperative to leverage nearby strength in old crop to manage forward downside risk – which ARC measures 50-70 cents if weather issues are avoided. Combined Brazilian + Ukrainian export in 2025 expand by 500 Mil Bu year-over-year assuming trend corn yields. Additional supply dislocation is needed to prevent a resetting of global feed markets in the second half of 2025. 7-12 cent rallies will be sold. A comprehensive US-Chinese trade deal is unlikely to some. However, whispers are we are in high-level talks with China and expectations we will have news in 3 weeks. Otherwise, US trade expands with non-Chinese destinations. July corn struggles above %5.00 and is supported below $4.65. Look to advance December sales above $4.65.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
All Important Seeding Window of Opportunity. The Corn & Ethanol Report 04/28/2025
We kickoff the day with Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10;00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates at 2:00 P.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The Commitment of Traders showed another week of fund buying across the 10 principal agriculture markets. Funds added to market length in soybeans, soybean oil, hogs, live cattle, and feeder cattle markets, and covered net short positions in Chicago and MN wheat markets. Funds liquidated market length in the corn and added to net short positions in soybean meal and KC wheat. Across the 10 markets, funds were net buyers for the week of 33,958 contracts, lifting the net long position to a 7-weekj high of 260,921 contracts. Funds have bought 227,487 contracts the last 2 weeks, the most since mid-October.
US Planting Advances Normally Through Weekend; Active Showers Return to S Plains, E Midwest April 28-May 2;
The central US forecast remains broadly favorable as additional drought erosion lies ahead for TX, OK, and northeast IA. Welcome precipitation has been recorded in KS, TX, OK, and IA. Seeding progress has been active from NE, the Dakota’s, and OH. Also, weekend rainfall will be confined to TX,OK and far eastern Midwest. This allows for rapid progress on Sat-Sun in MO, IA, MN, WI, and IL. Ag Resources (ARC) expects corn seeding nationally to be 24-26% complete, vs. 22% on average. Soybean progress is forecast to reach 20-22%, vs. 10% on average. A wet pattern resumes early this week and continues into May 10th. Drier and warmer weather conditions are desired. NOAA’s 7-day forecast shows low-level flooding/ponding is again possible in AR, MO, TN, W KY, and the far southern Midwest, with totals reaching upwards of 2.0-3.50”. The EU, GFS, and AI models generally agree that additional moderate/heavy rain favors the entire US Plains – where it’s needed – bit also AR, MO, and IL in the 8-15 day period. It’s a classic wet mid-spring climate pattern. However, ARC doubts planting will grind to a halt for lasting periods into mid-May. Enough open windows are forecast to allow corn/soybean seeding to reach 45-55% completion in the next three weeks, and odds of yield drags are only increased if more than 50% of row crops are planted after May 20th . The coming further shrinking of drought coverage is important. The risk is wheat that is heading which demands drier weather to prevent yield losses due to disease and denitrification of the soils. Sunshine is is desired across the South Central US into mid-May.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Rallies as Cash Market Firms; Mexico Buys More Old Crop from US; Dec to Struggle on Drought Erosion:
Global corn markets ended higher for a second day amid hope for progress in US-Indian negotiations and as interior US basis is more actively working to stimulate producer sales. Basis in Central IL last week was quoted at $.14 over, a new seasonal high. Upside risk is present in July, but spreads and cash markets will carry the burden of accounting for old crop supply tightening amid normal seeding pace. The July-Dec spreads has recovered to $.30/BU. ARC projects the spread to test $.40 prior to expiration. Yet, it remains imperative to leverage nearby strength in old crop to manage forward downside risk – which ARC measures 50-70 cents if weather issues are avoided. Combined Brazilian + Ukrainian export in 2025 expand by 500 Mil Bu year-over-year assuming trend corn yields. Additional supply dislocation is needed to prevent a resetting of global feed markets in the second half of 2025. 7-12 cent rallies will be sold. A comprehensive US-Chinese trade deal is unlikely to some. However, whispers are we are in high-level talks with China and expectations we will have news in 3 weeks. Otherwise, US trade expands with non-Chinese destinations. July corn struggles above %5.00 and is supported below $4.65. Look to advance December sales above $4.65.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Daniel Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374