Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan % Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Consumer Expectations Final, Michigan Current Conditions Final, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Final at 9:00 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.
The Census Bureau reported that the US existing home sales in March fell 5.9% from February to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.020 Mil homes. It was the slowest monthly sales rate in 6 months, and compared to a year ago, sales were down 5.9%, the largest annualized decline since 2022. Home inventories rose to a 5-month high of 1.33 Mil homes, while inventories in terms of months of supply rose to 4 months, or the most since October 2024. The median sales price rose 2% from February and was 3% higher than a year ago at $403,700. Existing home sales have been another bellwhether indicator of US financial recessions, and like many other indicators, have suggested that the US economy has been in an economic recession since 2021. However, massive government spending has helped prop up GDP statistics to avoid 2 consecutive negative quarters.
US Weather Pattern Update
US Drought Retreats Further into Plains; E Midwest/Mis-South Trend in May:
The Central US forecast maintains a broadly favorable mix of rain, sun, and warming temps into May 9th. National planting progress stay aligned with longer-term average through the period, though a developing risk is one of too much rainfall of 2-3” in southern IL, IN, TN, and KY May 1-3 – and 10-day totals in the mid-South of 3-4”. A drier pattern will be needed to prevent SRW disease risk expansion. Otherwise, the odds of drought expansion into late spring are low. This week’s drought monitor featured degradation in MO, IA, and the E Plains. Additional downgrades are expected in TX, OK, and eastern KS amid heavy weekend rainfall there. It’s an active Central US precipitation pattern into the first full week of May. The outlook for 2025 US row crops in favorable amid drought reduction across the Plains.
South American Weather Update
Brazil Drier After Next 5 Days; Rain Soaks Mato Grosso DO Sul, Parana Nearby:
The Brazilian forecast remains favorable, but a normal end to the 2025 monsoon is probable. The EU’s 1-5 & 6-10 day precipitation forecasts helpful rainfall upward of 2-4” favors Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, and pocketsof Sao Paulo into the weekend. The major forecasting models agree that Brazilian rainfall retreats into the Amazon thereafter – ans ARC note monsoonal precipitation on May 1st is typical. ARC maintains a Brazilian corn production estimate of 129 MMT’s, vs. USDA’s 126 in northern Brazil, enough subsoil moisture will be present to sustain crops through pollination. Rain in May is preferred, but remember the Brazilian safrinha corn yields capped at 95-110 Bu/acre even in years of favorable weather do to a complete absence of rain just after pollination. Any rain that falls in May is a yield benefit.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Recovers; Ols Crop US Export Demand Remains Intact; Ukrainian Fob Premiums Test Seasonal Highs:
Global corn markets ended higher on Thursday. The week so far has been a battle against broadly favorable Central US & Brazilian weather against potential record-low old crop exporter stocks/use and unhindered near-term US export demand. Focus today shifted to ongoing sizable US export sales, which should persist for another 3-6 weeks before cheaper Brazilian fob offers add competition. Ukrainian fob premiums this week are up $.25/Bu. Brazilian origin for August delivery is quoted $.12/Bu below US Gulf origin, keeping Mexican demand captive to the US. Export sales in the week ending Aoril 17th were 45 Mil Bu, a full 30 Mil above the pace needed to meet USDA’s target. Old crop end stocks of 1.4 Bil Bu lends support on breaks in July below $4.70. July gains on Dec with an upside target of $.35. But the forward risk of +2.0 Bil Bu of 25/26 end stocks keeps ARC’s strategy one of selling rallies. Catch up on old crop sales above $4.90 July and new crop December above $4.65. ARC will look to sell December corn on a 7-12 cent bounce. Be prepared.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Corn Bounces Back. The Corn & Ethanol Report 04/25/2025
We kickoff the day with Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan % Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Consumer Expectations Final, Michigan Current Conditions Final, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Final at 9:00 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.
The Census Bureau reported that the US existing home sales in March fell 5.9% from February to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.020 Mil homes. It was the slowest monthly sales rate in 6 months, and compared to a year ago, sales were down 5.9%, the largest annualized decline since 2022. Home inventories rose to a 5-month high of 1.33 Mil homes, while inventories in terms of months of supply rose to 4 months, or the most since October 2024. The median sales price rose 2% from February and was 3% higher than a year ago at $403,700. Existing home sales have been another bellwhether indicator of US financial recessions, and like many other indicators, have suggested that the US economy has been in an economic recession since 2021. However, massive government spending has helped prop up GDP statistics to avoid 2 consecutive negative quarters.
US Weather Pattern Update
US Drought Retreats Further into Plains; E Midwest/Mis-South Trend in May:
The Central US forecast maintains a broadly favorable mix of rain, sun, and warming temps into May 9th. National planting progress stay aligned with longer-term average through the period, though a developing risk is one of too much rainfall of 2-3” in southern IL, IN, TN, and KY May 1-3 – and 10-day totals in the mid-South of 3-4”. A drier pattern will be needed to prevent SRW disease risk expansion. Otherwise, the odds of drought expansion into late spring are low. This week’s drought monitor featured degradation in MO, IA, and the E Plains. Additional downgrades are expected in TX, OK, and eastern KS amid heavy weekend rainfall there. It’s an active Central US precipitation pattern into the first full week of May. The outlook for 2025 US row crops in favorable amid drought reduction across the Plains.
South American Weather Update
Brazil Drier After Next 5 Days; Rain Soaks Mato Grosso DO Sul, Parana Nearby:
The Brazilian forecast remains favorable, but a normal end to the 2025 monsoon is probable. The EU’s 1-5 & 6-10 day precipitation forecasts helpful rainfall upward of 2-4” favors Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, and pocketsof Sao Paulo into the weekend. The major forecasting models agree that Brazilian rainfall retreats into the Amazon thereafter – ans ARC note monsoonal precipitation on May 1st is typical. ARC maintains a Brazilian corn production estimate of 129 MMT’s, vs. USDA’s 126 in northern Brazil, enough subsoil moisture will be present to sustain crops through pollination. Rain in May is preferred, but remember the Brazilian safrinha corn yields capped at 95-110 Bu/acre even in years of favorable weather do to a complete absence of rain just after pollination. Any rain that falls in May is a yield benefit.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Recovers; Ols Crop US Export Demand Remains Intact; Ukrainian Fob Premiums Test Seasonal Highs:
Global corn markets ended higher on Thursday. The week so far has been a battle against broadly favorable Central US & Brazilian weather against potential record-low old crop exporter stocks/use and unhindered near-term US export demand. Focus today shifted to ongoing sizable US export sales, which should persist for another 3-6 weeks before cheaper Brazilian fob offers add competition. Ukrainian fob premiums this week are up $.25/Bu. Brazilian origin for August delivery is quoted $.12/Bu below US Gulf origin, keeping Mexican demand captive to the US. Export sales in the week ending Aoril 17th were 45 Mil Bu, a full 30 Mil above the pace needed to meet USDA’s target. Old crop end stocks of 1.4 Bil Bu lends support on breaks in July below $4.70. July gains on Dec with an upside target of $.35. But the forward risk of +2.0 Bil Bu of 25/26 end stocks keeps ARC’s strategy one of selling rallies. Catch up on old crop sales above $4.90 July and new crop December above $4.65. ARC will look to sell December corn on a 7-12 cent bounce. Be prepared.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Daniel Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374