AgMaster Report – 04/23/2025

MAY CORN

May Corn has corrected from its recent 50 cent rally due to planting pressure & macro issues.  Corn planting is 12% in (avg-10) & Trumps recent threat to fire Fed Chief Jerome Powell roiled the DJI yesterday to a 900 point loss! But underlying fundamentals remain strong – exports are running 30% over 2024, there are still drought concerns, prices are historically low & the US dollar has recently plummeted to a 2yr low! There is no weather premium in the mkt now & it will respond strongly to any production issues in the upcoming planting & growing season!

 

MAY BEANS

May Beans have been confined to a tight 20 cent range in the past 8 trading days as decent demand & talk of trade deals with Viet Nam, Japan & India have supported the mkt while recession/tariff fears have provided headwinds! Overall, the mkt performance has been impressive in the midst of the “Tariff Wars” with the mkt congesting 70 cents off the April lows! The Trump/Powell brouhaha has dropped the US Dollar to its 2023 lows – a boon to beans exports! There is optimism the US/China tariffs will be resolved much like the other countries were with the 90 day tariff-pause – by either a like pause or an outright resolution!

 

MAY WHT

May Wht – like May Beans – has stayed in a close range for are most of April headwinds have been the recession/tariff worries & added moisture to some of the plains while tailwinds are a 14% increase in cumulative exports & a large fund short position! Spring wht is 17% in (12) while Winter Wht gd/ex dropped from 47% to 45%!

 

JUNE CAT

Monday’s 900 point DJI collapse was an excellent test for the rallying June Cat – which has soared $14 in just a few short weeks – & it passed with flying colors – only closing marginally lower yesterday! It was strong testimonial to the power the Spring Barbeque season has over meat demand! Despite tariffs & recession fears, June Cat has managed to rally to its 2025 highs – catalyzed by GRILL OUT SEASON – the best demand period of the year!

 

JUNE HOGS

The consumers preference for cheap pork over expensive beef as well the high demand accompanying the Barbeque Season has overcome general recession fears to propel June Hogs to a $13 surge (88-101) – including 9 consecutive higher closes in a row! Even yesterday’s 1300 point plunge in the DJI couldn’t force a lower close! The mkt is set to challenge its 2025 $106 highs next month!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337