Wings have a few different purposes, some useful, others for looks or maybe even taste. Just this last week my wife, after some back and forth (because we all know how this is going to go), made the executive decision to get some chickens. The wings on these things are practically useless, as these are layers. Until their time is done, the wings from flightless birds will be just for looks. Other flightless birds have a better use and that is via the human consumption route. For the avian types that actually have the purpose of flying, wings are the key. That is part of what makes an eagle so majestic. After averting a crash landing in the markets earlier this month the markets have recovered somewhat. However, even some of those flightless birds can get off ground. So, what type of wings will the market have? Ones that make this turn out to be a majestic rally, or the ones that just get this thing off the ground?
Corn futures pulled back on the shortened 4-day week, with May slipping back 8 cents (1.63%). December held up despite the nearby pressure, 2 ½ cents higher, as precip in the heart of the Corn Belt may limit much early planting. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop was 4% planted as of April 13, slightly behind the 5-year average 5%. EIA showed Ethanol production slipping back another 9,000 barrels per day to 1.012 million bpd in the week of 4/10. Stocks of ethanol were down 220,000 barrels to 26.814 million barrels. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.56 MMT for the week that ended on April 10. That brought the total export commitments to 56.581 MMT, which is 87% of USDA’s full-year export forecast and lagging the 5-year average of 91% for this week. Friday’s CFTC data showed spec funds in corn futures and options adding back 70,997 contracts to their net long position as of April 15, taking their net long to just back to 124,573 contracts by Tuesday.
The wheat complex was back lower this week. Chicago slipped back 7 cents in the May contract (-1.26%). May Kansas City gave back all of the previous week’s gains with a 10 1/2 cent loss (1.85%). MPLS futures saw an 8 3/4 cent (1.42%) drop. Monday’s NASS Crop Progress report indicated a total of 8% of the US winter wheat crop was headed, in line with the 5-year average. Condition ratings were tallied at 47% good/excellent, down 1%, with a 329 on the Brugler500 index, a 1-point increase. Export Sales data tallied US wheat business at just 76,497 MT in the week of 4/10 for old crop. Bookings for new crop totaled 276,864 MT. That took 2024/25 export sale commitments to 21.628 MMT, which is now 97% of the new USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 102% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting 5,693 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of Tuesday 96,439 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 47,372 contracts, a reduction of 2,462 contracts during the week of April 15.
Soybeans saw a slight pull back this week, with May down 6 ¼ cents. November reverted higher vs. the nearby weakness up 7 cents. May Soybean was weaker, down $4/ton (1.34%), with bean oil up 52 points (1.10%) on the week. Crop Progress data showed soybean planting at 2% across the country, matching the 5-year average pace. NOPA data came in at 194.55 million bushels for March, up 9.38%nfrom February’s total but down 0.94% from a year ago. Thursday morning’s Export Sales report showed improved 2024/25 soybean bookings to 554,806 MT in the week of April 10. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 46.779 MMT. That is 94% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, lagging the 5-year average pace by 1 percentage point. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options at a net long of 26,169 contracts on Tuesday, a move of 76,616 contracts from the previous net short position.
Live cattle were on the move back higher, taking most of the recent weakness back, as June was up $7.275 (3.7%). The cash market was back higher this week, with southern sales at $208-210 and northern trade at $212-214, back up $4-7 from the week prior. Feeders shot higher, as expiring April was catching the index strength upon expiration, as May saw $8.15 higher (2.92%). The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $7.44 week/week to $293.57. Monthly Cattle on Feed data showed March placements up 5.08% from last year to 1.841 million head. March marketings were up 1.05% at 1.725 million head. April 1 cattle on feed inventory was down 1.59% to 11.638 million head. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week. Choice was down $2.70 (-0.8%) to $331.52 while Select was $159 higher (+0.5%) to $315.55. Weekly beef production was at 502.8 million lbs this week, back up 2.4% from last week but 4% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 1.8%, as slaughter is 5.6% lower. Export Sales data indicated a total of 17,470 MT beef sold in the week of April 10. Shipments were a 3-week low at 14,615 MT. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options trimming another 11,980 contracts from their net long positions as of Tuesday to 106,523 contracts. Managed money cut another 2,122 contracts from their net long in feeder cattle futures and options, to 25,915 contracts by April 15.
Hogs were climbing higher this week, up $4.70 (5.04%). The CME Lean Hog Index was down $2.46 this week at $85.21 as of April 16. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $5.04 this week (+5.5%) to $97.00/cwt as the bounce between $90 and $100 continues. The belly was the leader, up $23.64. Pork production was down 4.1% from last week and 3.4% below the same week a year ago at 516.4 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 2.7%, as slaughter is 3% lower. Export Sales report showed a total of just 20,548 MT sold in the week ending on April 10, a 4-week low. Shipments came in a 30,934 MT, which was back up from the week prior. Friday’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back 3,960 contracts to their net long position as of 4/15 to a net position of 40,222 contracts.
Cotton futures extended the bounce back with late week strength, up 43 points. New crop December was back down 7 cents. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 5% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, lagging the 8% pace from the 5-year average. Export Sales data showed improved sales to total 201,990 RB in the week ending on April 10. Shipments were tallied at 328,215 RB in that week, a drop from the week prior. Commitments are now at 10.755 million RB, which is 106% of the USDA forecast, ahead of the 103% the 5-year average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back up 33 points this week, to 53.1430 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds adding back 13,273 contracts to their net short position as of April 15 to 42,418 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the Export Inspections report on Monday morning and the Crop Progress report released that afternoon. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be published on Wednesday per normal. Thursday will be the first notice day for May cotton futures. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Thursday morning, with the monthly Cold Storage report out later that afternoon. Friday is the expiration day for May grain options.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have rallied off the April 9 low at $9.71 ¼ to the 61.8% Fib retracement resistance at $10.35 ¾. That, mixed with the 2/3 speedline at $10.36 ¼ and the 200-day moving average at $10.38 ¾ have provided some fairly thick resistance for the bulls to chew thew this week. Breaking this area could indicate a retest of the Feb high, which the new crop seasonal history would suggest. Stochastics have turned bullish and are approaching overbought. The Bollinger midline is at $10.15 on a pullback. Thus far, soybeans have done very little to buy too many acres from corn. The tariff situation may be what is preventing some of that, as well as the fact that South American production will likely still expand at these levels.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Wings. Ag Marketing Report 04/21/2025
Wings have a few different purposes, some useful, others for looks or maybe even taste. Just this last week my wife, after some back and forth (because we all know how this is going to go), made the executive decision to get some chickens. The wings on these things are practically useless, as these are layers. Until their time is done, the wings from flightless birds will be just for looks. Other flightless birds have a better use and that is via the human consumption route. For the avian types that actually have the purpose of flying, wings are the key. That is part of what makes an eagle so majestic. After averting a crash landing in the markets earlier this month the markets have recovered somewhat. However, even some of those flightless birds can get off ground. So, what type of wings will the market have? Ones that make this turn out to be a majestic rally, or the ones that just get this thing off the ground?
Corn futures pulled back on the shortened 4-day week, with May slipping back 8 cents (1.63%). December held up despite the nearby pressure, 2 ½ cents higher, as precip in the heart of the Corn Belt may limit much early planting. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop was 4% planted as of April 13, slightly behind the 5-year average 5%. EIA showed Ethanol production slipping back another 9,000 barrels per day to 1.012 million bpd in the week of 4/10. Stocks of ethanol were down 220,000 barrels to 26.814 million barrels. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.56 MMT for the week that ended on April 10. That brought the total export commitments to 56.581 MMT, which is 87% of USDA’s full-year export forecast and lagging the 5-year average of 91% for this week. Friday’s CFTC data showed spec funds in corn futures and options adding back 70,997 contracts to their net long position as of April 15, taking their net long to just back to 124,573 contracts by Tuesday.
The wheat complex was back lower this week. Chicago slipped back 7 cents in the May contract (-1.26%). May Kansas City gave back all of the previous week’s gains with a 10 1/2 cent loss (1.85%). MPLS futures saw an 8 3/4 cent (1.42%) drop. Monday’s NASS Crop Progress report indicated a total of 8% of the US winter wheat crop was headed, in line with the 5-year average. Condition ratings were tallied at 47% good/excellent, down 1%, with a 329 on the Brugler500 index, a 1-point increase. Export Sales data tallied US wheat business at just 76,497 MT in the week of 4/10 for old crop. Bookings for new crop totaled 276,864 MT. That took 2024/25 export sale commitments to 21.628 MMT, which is now 97% of the new USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 102% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting 5,693 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of Tuesday 96,439 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 47,372 contracts, a reduction of 2,462 contracts during the week of April 15.
Soybeans saw a slight pull back this week, with May down 6 ¼ cents. November reverted higher vs. the nearby weakness up 7 cents. May Soybean was weaker, down $4/ton (1.34%), with bean oil up 52 points (1.10%) on the week. Crop Progress data showed soybean planting at 2% across the country, matching the 5-year average pace. NOPA data came in at 194.55 million bushels for March, up 9.38%nfrom February’s total but down 0.94% from a year ago. Thursday morning’s Export Sales report showed improved 2024/25 soybean bookings to 554,806 MT in the week of April 10. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 46.779 MMT. That is 94% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, lagging the 5-year average pace by 1 percentage point. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options at a net long of 26,169 contracts on Tuesday, a move of 76,616 contracts from the previous net short position.
Live cattle were on the move back higher, taking most of the recent weakness back, as June was up $7.275 (3.7%). The cash market was back higher this week, with southern sales at $208-210 and northern trade at $212-214, back up $4-7 from the week prior. Feeders shot higher, as expiring April was catching the index strength upon expiration, as May saw $8.15 higher (2.92%). The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $7.44 week/week to $293.57. Monthly Cattle on Feed data showed March placements up 5.08% from last year to 1.841 million head. March marketings were up 1.05% at 1.725 million head. April 1 cattle on feed inventory was down 1.59% to 11.638 million head. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week. Choice was down $2.70 (-0.8%) to $331.52 while Select was $159 higher (+0.5%) to $315.55. Weekly beef production was at 502.8 million lbs this week, back up 2.4% from last week but 4% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 1.8%, as slaughter is 5.6% lower. Export Sales data indicated a total of 17,470 MT beef sold in the week of April 10. Shipments were a 3-week low at 14,615 MT. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options trimming another 11,980 contracts from their net long positions as of Tuesday to 106,523 contracts. Managed money cut another 2,122 contracts from their net long in feeder cattle futures and options, to 25,915 contracts by April 15.
Hogs were climbing higher this week, up $4.70 (5.04%). The CME Lean Hog Index was down $2.46 this week at $85.21 as of April 16. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $5.04 this week (+5.5%) to $97.00/cwt as the bounce between $90 and $100 continues. The belly was the leader, up $23.64. Pork production was down 4.1% from last week and 3.4% below the same week a year ago at 516.4 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 2.7%, as slaughter is 3% lower. Export Sales report showed a total of just 20,548 MT sold in the week ending on April 10, a 4-week low. Shipments came in a 30,934 MT, which was back up from the week prior. Friday’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back 3,960 contracts to their net long position as of 4/15 to a net position of 40,222 contracts.
Cotton futures extended the bounce back with late week strength, up 43 points. New crop December was back down 7 cents. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 5% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, lagging the 8% pace from the 5-year average. Export Sales data showed improved sales to total 201,990 RB in the week ending on April 10. Shipments were tallied at 328,215 RB in that week, a drop from the week prior. Commitments are now at 10.755 million RB, which is 106% of the USDA forecast, ahead of the 103% the 5-year average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back up 33 points this week, to 53.1430 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds adding back 13,273 contracts to their net short position as of April 15 to 42,418 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the Export Inspections report on Monday morning and the Crop Progress report released that afternoon. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be published on Wednesday per normal. Thursday will be the first notice day for May cotton futures. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Thursday morning, with the monthly Cold Storage report out later that afternoon. Friday is the expiration day for May grain options.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have rallied off the April 9 low at $9.71 ¼ to the 61.8% Fib retracement resistance at $10.35 ¾. That, mixed with the 2/3 speedline at $10.36 ¼ and the 200-day moving average at $10.38 ¾ have provided some fairly thick resistance for the bulls to chew thew this week. Breaking this area could indicate a retest of the Feb high, which the new crop seasonal history would suggest. Stochastics have turned bullish and are approaching overbought. The Bollinger midline is at $10.15 on a pullback. Thus far, soybeans have done very little to buy too many acres from corn. The tariff situation may be what is preventing some of that, as well as the fact that South American production will likely still expand at these levels.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.