Weekly Ag Markets Update – 04/14/2025

Wheat: All three markets closed higher last week as speculators were buying in short positions and as the weather for growing crops was not good.  The White House made a pause in the implementation of the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days but is still imposing blanket tariffs on most of the world and the old Mexican and Canadian tariffs.  The tariffs will cost producers more for inputs and should damage upside price potential if they are enacted as stated earlier this week.  USDA issued its monthly supply and demand updates yesterday and Wheat ending stocks levels were increased for the US and the world.  Chart trends are up in Winter Wheat markets and in Minneapolis.  Dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea regions are still the main feature but some hail was reported in Black Sea areas last week to damage crops.  Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy in northern countries.  Overall demand has been weak.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

 

Corn: Corn closed higher last week as the market reacted to the good demand for Corn in domestic and world markets.  The US is the best offer in the world for now and has been getting the business even with the tariff battles going on.  The news that the White House has paused implementation of the new reciprocal tariffs by 90 days but held the world tariff schedule at 10% was viewed with relief by the market asx the reciprocal tariffs had been much higher.  USDA released its latest monthly supply and demand reports that showed no real changes to supply but higher demand than expected and lower ending stocks.  It is dry in growing areas in western US, but most of the Midwest has had precipitation lately and eastern and southern areas are too wet.  It has become warmer in a lot of the Midwest and planting progress is expected to be much improved this week.  Oats were higher and the trends are up in both markets.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and the products closed higher last week as the market reacted to news or better demand due to high Brazil FOB premiums.  There was news that the reciprocal tariffs have been put on pause for 90 days.  The world wide tariff of 10% remains intact as do tariffs on Mexico and Canada.  USDA released its monthly supply and demand updates yesterday with no changes to South American production estimates and slightly lower US ending stocks.  South American production looks strong, with Brazil expected to produce 170 million tons and Argentina producing 49 million tons or a little less.  However, the reports of demand have remained solid for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America.  Deferred months were higher as the weather remains too wet to the east and south and too dry to the west.  Warmer temperatures are expected this week.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice: Rice closed higher last week and are holding to a sideways to up trend.  USDA made no changes to the US supply or demand tables in its reports last week.  World ending stocks were increased.  Prices remain cheap and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now.  Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher.  Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.  Rice is getting planted in southern growing areas now, and Texas is now about 80% done.  Progress in Louisiana has been very good.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil futures were higher last week as the outside markets were also higher.  There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things.  Demand ideas are weaker.  Chart trends are mixed.  Canola was higher last week and trends are up on the daily charts.  Canadian goods were exempted from the new round of tariffs but still must deal with the tariffs previously imposed by the US.  Canada will not be exempted by the 90 day pause.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton: Cotton was higher last week after the White House paused the implementation of the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, but kept the world base tariffs intact at 10% and Canadian and Mexican tariffs intact as they were previously, and also in response to the supply and demand reports issued by USDA.  USDA made no changes to the production estimates or total supply but did cut export demand by 10 million bales and increased ending stocks levels to 5.0 million bales.  World stocks estimates were also higher.  Some rain was reported in west Texas last week to help ease drought concerns and potential supply problems, and farmers are in the fields.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: FCOJ closed much higher last week in response to the pause on tariff implementation made by the White House.  Tariffs for the world remain at 10% but the reciprocal tariffs are gone.  Chinese tariffs are very high, and the Mexican and Canadian tariffs remain as they were.  USDA reported a slight increase in US oranges production in its reports released on Thursday.  The increase was in California and will not have effect on the production of FCOJ in Florida.  Trends are turning up for the short term.  The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little loose.  The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years.  There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  Both markets closed a little lower last week as the president backed down from the trade war and announced a 90 day pause in its implementation. The tariffs threatened to bring a recession or depression to the world economies.    Coffee is being tariffed even though the US does not produce any except for a small amount grown in Hawaii.  Vietnam products are being tariffed to a significant degree.  The lack of offers from Brazil continue with prices dropping.  The Vietnam harvest is over, but producers are holding back on some beans.  Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term, but a few showers are reported in Coffee areas now.  Trends are mixed on the daily charts.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

Sugar: Both markets were lower on ideas of good supplies and less demand due to the tariffs imposed by the White House.  President Trump paused the implementation of the tariffs for 90 days, but the world tariff of 10% remains intact as do the previous tariffs on Mexico and Canada.  There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa: New York closed the week little changed and London closed a little lower despite reduced fears that the world was entering a recession or depression due to the Trump tariff moves of last week.  Trends are down in London but mixed in New York, and demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates.  Cocoa imports are now subject to a 10% tariff at minimum, but Ivory Coast is no longer facing tariffs up to about 21% as the reciprocal tariffs were paused for 90 days..  Ideas are that a strong crop is expected and the ICCO recently raised its forecast of production for the coming year.  Ivory Coast farmers reported below normal rainfall last week.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

 

 

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