There are several songs that have the theme of a comeback. From the Darius Rucker Come Back Song, to the one that comes into my brain every time I hear the phrase comeback, LL Cool J’s Mama Said Knock You Out. If you’re unfamiliar, that one starts out with “Don’t call it a comeback, I’ve been here for years…” and is quite catchy. The word comeback may be making a comeback of its own when we talk about the ag markets this week (you can include the stock market to an extent if you’d like). For the most part, the grains took back their losses from the week prior that were driven by the tariff announcement, with the livestock clawing some back this week. That was despite increased trade tensions with China, which now has a 145% tariff slapped on it, with its own 125% in countervailing duties on the US goods. For the other countries though, the tariffs are on pause, at least for another 90 days.
Corn futures put the boosters on this week with May rallying 30 cents wk/wk and December up 16 ¾ cents. Much of the positive move came late in the week as USDA slashed their projection for US carryout by 75 million bushels to 1.465 bbu. That was done via a 100 mbu increase to the export projection. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop was 2% planted as of April 6, in line with the 5-year average. EIA showed Ethanol production dropping 42,000 barrels per day to 1.021 million bpd in the week of 4/4. Stocks of ethanol were building, up 422,000 barrels to 27.034 million barrels. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 785,583 MT sold during the week ending on April 3. That brought the total export commitments to 55.019 MMT, which is 85% of USDA’s full year export forecast and now lagging the 5-year average of 89% for this week. Friday’s CFTC data showed spec funds in corn futures and options trimming another 3,181 contracts from their net long position as of April 8, taking their net long to just 53,576 contracts by Tuesday.
The wheat complex pushed higher this week, despite a more bearish outlook from the USDA. Chicago was 26 ¾ cents higher in the May contract. May Kansas City posted a 10 1/2 cent gain. MPLS futures saw a 30 1/2 cent rally to lead the charge. This week’s NASS Crop Progress report indicated a total of 5% of the US winter wheat crop was headed, in line with the 5-year average. Condition ratings were tallied at 48% good/excellent, or 328 on the Brugler500 index (100-500 point scale), which is behind the 56% and 348 from the same point last year. USDA raised their ending stocks projection for wheat by 27 million bushels to 846 mbu on Thursday, as they continued to cut their export projection and raise imports. Export Sales data had wheat business at just 107,280 MT in the week of 4/3. That took export sale commitments to 21.55 MMT, which is now 96.6% of the new USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 102% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs trimming back 9,908 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of Tuesday 102,132 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 49,834 contracts, an increase of 4,159 contracts as of April 8.
Soybeans took back last week’s collapse this week, plus some, with May rallying 65 ¾ cents. November posted a 41 1/4 gain to take back most of last week’s losses. May Soybean meal reverted higher this week, up $16.50/ton (5.83%), with bean oil up 151 points (3.29%) on the week. USDA’s updated balance sheet for the US was down 5 mbu on Thursday to 375 mbu, as the World Ag Outlook Board increased their crush projection. Thursday morning’s Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean business at 172,324 MT in the week of April 3. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 46.343 MMT. That is 93% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, lagging the 5-year average pace by 1 percentage point. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options increasing their net short by 20,847 contracts on Tuesday, taking it to 50,477 contracts.
Live cattle were the weak spot this week with Friday’s recovery limiting the damage, as June was down $1.40. The cash market was lower this week, with southern sales at $204 and northern trade at $208, down $4-5 from the week prior. Feeders clawed back some gains, with April up $5.75 this week and May popping $3.825. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $5.82 week/week to $286.13. Wholesale boxed beef prices were backing off this week. Choice was down $4.23 (-1.2%) to $334.22 while Select was $3.22 lower (1%) to $313.96. Weekly beef production totaled 491.2 million lbs this week, down 4.3% from last week and 2.9% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 1.7%, as slaughter is 5.4% lower. Export Sales data tallied 11,855 MT of beef sold in the week ending on April 3, the highest in 4 weeks. Shipments were reported at 15,065 MT, a 3-week high. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options liquidating their net long positions, cutting 24,274 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday to 118,503 contracts. Managed money cut 5,332 contracts from their net long in feeder cattle futures and options, to 28,037 contracts by April 8.
Hogs saw a bounce later in the week, with June up $1.77 from last Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.05 this week at $87.67 as of April 9. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down $3.81 this week (-4%) to $91.96/cwt as the bounce between $90 and $100 continues. Pork production was back down 0.7% from last week but 0.6% above the same week a year ago at 540.1 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 2.6%, as slaughter is 2.9% lower. Export Sales data showed 23,854 MT of pork sold in the week ending on April 3, a 3-week low. Shipments were reported at 30,100 MT, a 7-week low. Friday’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back 19,064 contracts to their net long position as of 4/8 to a net position of 36,262 contracts.
Cotton futures got a bounce back this week, with front month May up 253 points. New crop December was step for step, up 235 points. The monthly WASDE report showed a 100,000 bale increase to stocks at 5 million bales for the US carryout. NASS Crop Progress data indicated a total of 4% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, lagging the 6% pace from the 5-year average and the 5% from last year. Export Sales data showed a total of 115,082 RB in sales during the week ending on April 3, a 10.86% drop from last week. Shipments were tallied at 377,200 RB in that week, a 3-week low. Commitments are now at 10.553 million RB, which is 103% of the USDA forecast, matching the 5-year average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back down 212 points this week, to 53.10 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds slashing back 10,943 contracts from their net short position as of April 8 to 55,691 contracts.
Market Watch
We start next week with the Export Inspections report on Monday morning and the Crop Progress report that afternoon. Monday is the last trade day for April lean hog futures and options. Tuesday will see the NOPA crush report released in the morning. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be published on Wednesday. Thursday will be the last trade day for April feeder cattle futures and options. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Thursday morning, with monthly Cattle on Feed report out later that afternoon. The market will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday, though the government will be open.
Tech Talk: December Corn
The last time we had a tech talk on December corn (2 weeks ago) things looked a little bleaker. We had broken out of a bear pennant to the downside with a target at $4.11. The 2/3 speedline (faded red) was also broken, suggesting a test of $4.28. However, all the market wanted to do was hit the triangle count ($4.36 ¾) on the pennant, not the entire flagpole count. Since then the market has taken off, after a delay. Last week was stopped by a 1/3 speedline off the Feb high, but was quickly taken out this week. The 18-day moving average at $4.48 ¾ was also breached, as with the 60-day exponential moving average at $4.53. Friday’s strength took out the 2/3 speedline, which suggests a test of the $4.79 ¾ high. There are a couple retracements in the way at $4.63 (61.8%) and $4.70 ¼ (78.6%) before getting there. Stochastics are nearing overbought, with the 4-day RSI very overbought. MACD has just regained some bullishness, and ADX would side with the momentum indicator.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Comeback. Ag Marketing Report 04/14/2025
There are several songs that have the theme of a comeback. From the Darius Rucker Come Back Song, to the one that comes into my brain every time I hear the phrase comeback, LL Cool J’s Mama Said Knock You Out. If you’re unfamiliar, that one starts out with “Don’t call it a comeback, I’ve been here for years…” and is quite catchy. The word comeback may be making a comeback of its own when we talk about the ag markets this week (you can include the stock market to an extent if you’d like). For the most part, the grains took back their losses from the week prior that were driven by the tariff announcement, with the livestock clawing some back this week. That was despite increased trade tensions with China, which now has a 145% tariff slapped on it, with its own 125% in countervailing duties on the US goods. For the other countries though, the tariffs are on pause, at least for another 90 days.
Corn futures put the boosters on this week with May rallying 30 cents wk/wk and December up 16 ¾ cents. Much of the positive move came late in the week as USDA slashed their projection for US carryout by 75 million bushels to 1.465 bbu. That was done via a 100 mbu increase to the export projection. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop was 2% planted as of April 6, in line with the 5-year average. EIA showed Ethanol production dropping 42,000 barrels per day to 1.021 million bpd in the week of 4/4. Stocks of ethanol were building, up 422,000 barrels to 27.034 million barrels. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 785,583 MT sold during the week ending on April 3. That brought the total export commitments to 55.019 MMT, which is 85% of USDA’s full year export forecast and now lagging the 5-year average of 89% for this week. Friday’s CFTC data showed spec funds in corn futures and options trimming another 3,181 contracts from their net long position as of April 8, taking their net long to just 53,576 contracts by Tuesday.
The wheat complex pushed higher this week, despite a more bearish outlook from the USDA. Chicago was 26 ¾ cents higher in the May contract. May Kansas City posted a 10 1/2 cent gain. MPLS futures saw a 30 1/2 cent rally to lead the charge. This week’s NASS Crop Progress report indicated a total of 5% of the US winter wheat crop was headed, in line with the 5-year average. Condition ratings were tallied at 48% good/excellent, or 328 on the Brugler500 index (100-500 point scale), which is behind the 56% and 348 from the same point last year. USDA raised their ending stocks projection for wheat by 27 million bushels to 846 mbu on Thursday, as they continued to cut their export projection and raise imports. Export Sales data had wheat business at just 107,280 MT in the week of 4/3. That took export sale commitments to 21.55 MMT, which is now 96.6% of the new USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 102% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs trimming back 9,908 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of Tuesday 102,132 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 49,834 contracts, an increase of 4,159 contracts as of April 8.
Soybeans took back last week’s collapse this week, plus some, with May rallying 65 ¾ cents. November posted a 41 1/4 gain to take back most of last week’s losses. May Soybean meal reverted higher this week, up $16.50/ton (5.83%), with bean oil up 151 points (3.29%) on the week. USDA’s updated balance sheet for the US was down 5 mbu on Thursday to 375 mbu, as the World Ag Outlook Board increased their crush projection. Thursday morning’s Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean business at 172,324 MT in the week of April 3. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 46.343 MMT. That is 93% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, lagging the 5-year average pace by 1 percentage point. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options increasing their net short by 20,847 contracts on Tuesday, taking it to 50,477 contracts.
Live cattle were the weak spot this week with Friday’s recovery limiting the damage, as June was down $1.40. The cash market was lower this week, with southern sales at $204 and northern trade at $208, down $4-5 from the week prior. Feeders clawed back some gains, with April up $5.75 this week and May popping $3.825. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $5.82 week/week to $286.13. Wholesale boxed beef prices were backing off this week. Choice was down $4.23 (-1.2%) to $334.22 while Select was $3.22 lower (1%) to $313.96. Weekly beef production totaled 491.2 million lbs this week, down 4.3% from last week and 2.9% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 1.7%, as slaughter is 5.4% lower. Export Sales data tallied 11,855 MT of beef sold in the week ending on April 3, the highest in 4 weeks. Shipments were reported at 15,065 MT, a 3-week high. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options liquidating their net long positions, cutting 24,274 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday to 118,503 contracts. Managed money cut 5,332 contracts from their net long in feeder cattle futures and options, to 28,037 contracts by April 8.
Hogs saw a bounce later in the week, with June up $1.77 from last Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.05 this week at $87.67 as of April 9. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down $3.81 this week (-4%) to $91.96/cwt as the bounce between $90 and $100 continues. Pork production was back down 0.7% from last week but 0.6% above the same week a year ago at 540.1 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 2.6%, as slaughter is 2.9% lower. Export Sales data showed 23,854 MT of pork sold in the week ending on April 3, a 3-week low. Shipments were reported at 30,100 MT, a 7-week low. Friday’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back 19,064 contracts to their net long position as of 4/8 to a net position of 36,262 contracts.
Cotton futures got a bounce back this week, with front month May up 253 points. New crop December was step for step, up 235 points. The monthly WASDE report showed a 100,000 bale increase to stocks at 5 million bales for the US carryout. NASS Crop Progress data indicated a total of 4% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, lagging the 6% pace from the 5-year average and the 5% from last year. Export Sales data showed a total of 115,082 RB in sales during the week ending on April 3, a 10.86% drop from last week. Shipments were tallied at 377,200 RB in that week, a 3-week low. Commitments are now at 10.553 million RB, which is 103% of the USDA forecast, matching the 5-year average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back down 212 points this week, to 53.10 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds slashing back 10,943 contracts from their net short position as of April 8 to 55,691 contracts.
Market Watch
We start next week with the Export Inspections report on Monday morning and the Crop Progress report that afternoon. Monday is the last trade day for April lean hog futures and options. Tuesday will see the NOPA crush report released in the morning. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be published on Wednesday. Thursday will be the last trade day for April feeder cattle futures and options. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Thursday morning, with monthly Cattle on Feed report out later that afternoon. The market will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday, though the government will be open.
Tech Talk: December Corn
The last time we had a tech talk on December corn (2 weeks ago) things looked a little bleaker. We had broken out of a bear pennant to the downside with a target at $4.11. The 2/3 speedline (faded red) was also broken, suggesting a test of $4.28. However, all the market wanted to do was hit the triangle count ($4.36 ¾) on the pennant, not the entire flagpole count. Since then the market has taken off, after a delay. Last week was stopped by a 1/3 speedline off the Feb high, but was quickly taken out this week. The 18-day moving average at $4.48 ¾ was also breached, as with the 60-day exponential moving average at $4.53. Friday’s strength took out the 2/3 speedline, which suggests a test of the $4.79 ¾ high. There are a couple retracements in the way at $4.63 (61.8%) and $4.70 ¼ (78.6%) before getting there. Stochastics are nearing overbought, with the 4-day RSI very overbought. MACD has just regained some bullishness, and ADX would side with the momentum indicator.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.