Softs Report 04/11/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower yesterday after the White House paused the implementation of the tariffs for 90 days and also in response to the supply and demand reports issued by USDA. USDA made no changes to the production estimates or total supply but did cut export demand by 10 million bales and increased ending stocks levels to 5.0 million bales. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week to help ease drought concerns and potential supply problems.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 66.92 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 64.30, 62.60, and 58.80 May, with resistance of 67.80, 68.50 and 69.20 May.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
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2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Mar Apr
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Million Acres
Planted 13.75 10.23 11.18 11.18
Harvested 7.29 6.44 8.27 8.27
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 953 899 836 836
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.60 4.65 3.15 3.15
Production 14.47 12.07 14.41 14.41
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 19.07 16.72 17.57 17.57
Domestic Use 2.05 1.85 1.70 1.70
Exports, Total 12.45 11.75 11.00 10.90
Use, Total 14.50 13.60 12.70 12.60
Unaccounted 2/ -0.08 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03
Ending Stocks 4.65 3.15 4.90 5.00
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 84.8 76.1 63.0 63.0
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WASDE – 659 – 18 April 2025

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
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Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
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2024/25 Proj.
World
Mar 73.71 120.96 42.69 116.54 42.71 -0.22 78.33
Apr 73.74 120.89 42.36 116.02 42.33 -0.22 78.86
World Less China
Mar 37.00 89.21 35.89 79.04 42.61 -0.22 40.66
Apr 37.02 88.89 35.86 79.02 42.23 -0.22 40.74
United States
Mar 3.15 14.41 0.01 1.70 11.00 -0.03 4.90
Apr 3.15 14.41 0.01 1.70 10.90 -0.03 5.00
Total Foreign
Mar 70.56 106.55 42.68 114.84 31.71 -0.19 73.43
Apr 70.59 106.48 42.36 114.32 31.43 -0.19 73.86
Major Exporters 4/
Mar 24.35 60.18 3.47 34.82 27.49 -0.19 25.89
Apr 24.38 59.90 3.52 34.85 27.07 -0.19 26.08
Major Importers 8/
Mar 43.87 42.99 36.37 75.53 2.52 0.00 45.18
Apr 43.87 43.20 36.00 74.96 2.70 0.00 45.41
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WASDE – 659 – 28 April 2025

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed moderately higher in response to the pause on tariff implementation made by the White House and to az slight increase in US oranges production. The increase was in California and will not have effect on the production of FCOJ in Florida. Trends are mixed for the short term. The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little loose. The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 232.00, 211.00, and 204.00 May, with resistance at 269.00, 276.00, and 288.00 May.

Orange Production Up 2 Percent from March Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2024-2025 season is 2.46 million tons, up 2 percent from the previous forecast but down 8 percent from the 2023-2024 revised utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 11.6 million boxes (522,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 36 percent from last season’s revised utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 4.60 million boxes (207,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 32 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 7.00 million boxes (315,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 38 percent from last season’s revised utilization.
The California all orange forecast at 47.5 million boxes (1.90 million tons), is up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 5 percent from last season’s revised utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 40.0 million boxes (1.60 million tons), up 3 percent from the previous forecast and up 4 percent from last season’s revised utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 7.50 million boxes (300,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 6 percent from last season’s revised utilization. The Texas all orange forecast at 880,000 boxes (38,000 tons) is down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down 25 percent from last season’s final utilization.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed higher yesterday as the predicant backed down from the trade war and announced a 90 day pause in its implementation. The tariffs threatened to bring a recession or depression to the world economies. Coffee is being tariffed even though the US does not produce any except for a small amount grown in Hawaii. Vietnam products are being tariffed to a significant degree. The lack of offers from Brazil continue with prices dropping. The Vietnam harvest is over, but producers are holding back on some beans. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 311.53 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 325.00, 317.00, and 312.00 May, and resistance is at 350.00, 365.00 and 372.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 4630, 4550, and 4450 May, with resistance at 5170, 5290, and 5400 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were higher as President Trump paused the implementation of the tariffs for 90 daysThere were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1790, 1760, and 1730 May and resistance is at 1850, 1870, and 1910 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 513.00, 501.00, and 496.00 May, with resistance at 531.00, 540.00, and 547.00 May.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
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2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Mar Apr
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1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1820 1843 2129 2131
Production 2/ 9250 9313 9408 9369
Beet Sugar 5187 5172 5389 5391
Cane Sugar 4063 4141 4019 3978
Florida 1985 2079 1971 1930
Louisiana 2001 2022 2049 2049
Texas 76 40 0 0
Imports 3614 3840 2779 2961
TRQ 3/ 1862 1788 1533 1533
Other Program 4/ 141 300 200 200
Non-program 1611 1752 1047 1228
Mexico 1156 521 497 497
High-tier tariff/other 455 1231 550 731
Total Supply 14685 14995 14317 14461
Exports 82 249 100 100
Deliveries 12589 12534 12345 12345
Food 12473 12428 12240 12240
Other 5/ 116 106 105 105
Miscellaneous 171 81 0 0
Total Use 12843 12864 12445 12445
Ending Stocks 1843 2131 1872 2016
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.3 16.6 15.0 16.2
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Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1
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Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
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1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2023/24 Est.
Mar 835 4704 761 4436 446 1418
Apr 835 4704 761 4436 446 1418
2024/25 Proj.
Mar 1418 4859 189 4553 957 956
Apr 1418 4859 189 4553 957 956
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WASDE – 659 – 17 April 2025

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday despite reduced fears that the world was entering a recession or depression due to the Trump tariff moves of last week. Trends are down in London but mixed in New York, and demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Cocoa imports are now subject to a 10% tariff at minimum, with Ivory Coast facing tariffs up to about 21%. Ideas are that a strong crop is expected and the ICCO recently raised its forecast of production for the coming year. Ivory Coast farmers reported below normal rainfall last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7640, 7520, and 7400 May, with resistance at 8590, 8890, and 9340 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5580, 5460, and 5320 May, with resistance at 6310, 6440, and 6820 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322