Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with PPI, PPI MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, PPI Ex Food, Energy, and Trade MoM & YoY at 7:30 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel, Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel, Michigan Current Conditions Prel, Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel, and Fed Musalem Speech at 9:00 A.M., Fed Williams Speech at 10:00 A.M., and Bakers Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in March, marking the 4th consecutive month higher, and has increased in 14 of the last 15 months. The core inflation rate was up 0.2%, marking the 51st consecutive monthly increase. The annualize. The annualized inflation rate slipped to 2.4%, the lowest in 6 months as energy prices fell 3.2% from last year. Food price inflation rose to a 17-month high of 3%, led by a 108% increase in eggs that rose to a record high of $6.23/dozen. While meat prices were 4.6% higher than a year ago, marking the highest inflation rate in 30 months. Despite the lower inflation rate, the Consumer Price Index set a record high of 319.8.
USDA’s April WASDE Brief
USDA’s April WASDE leaned supportive of corn and soybeans, while neutral to bearish of wheat. Broadly, adjustments were aligned with trade ideas, but that prohibited US trade tariffs will (for now) be isolated to China implies old crop US carryover supplies will not be abundant. The outlook turns bearish of corn and soybeans mid-summer onward if yield threats are avoided, but Ag Resources (ARC’s) work suggests ag market relaxation does await clarity over N Hemisphere climate patterns. USDA projects combined US corn, wheat, and soybean carryover supplies at 2.69 Bil Bu, vs. 280 last year and vs. 3.6-4.2 Bil in the ultra-bear years of 2015-2018.The message is that stocks are large enough to support sub-$9.50 soybeans and sub-$4.40 corn. Only Mother Nature determines the intensity of US/world grain stocks building in 2025. The strategy remains to use weather-based volatility to add to forward hedges.
I concur with ARC and other analysts and traders, that it is doubtful the corn market fully relaxes until the US, Europe, and Ukraine avoid summer weather issues. Change to US supply & demand lowered exporter stocks/use to 7.3% the third lowest in the ethanol era. ARC expects exporter stocks/use to be lowered to 7.1-7.2%, and the world’s surplus this year will be tight relative to consumption. Thankfully, Brazilian winter corn weather forecasts are wet well into late April which bodes favorably for yield. A US yield of 180+ BPA allows exporter stocks/use in crop year 25/26 to jump to 10%, which correlates with a price range in Oct-Dec of $3.70-$3.90. However, trend US yields are needed – as is Brazilian production in 2025 and a crop of 125 MMT’s plus. Upside in July CBOT is pegged at $4.90-$5.10. Dec struggle above $4.60 as Midwest planting is set to begin in earnest as US temperatures warm. US farmers are expected to seed additional acres amid to US/China trade war.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Inflation Nation Cooling. The Corn & Ethanol Report 04/11/2025
We kickoff the day with PPI, PPI MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, PPI Ex Food, Energy, and Trade MoM & YoY at 7:30 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel, Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel, Michigan Current Conditions Prel, Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel, and Fed Musalem Speech at 9:00 A.M., Fed Williams Speech at 10:00 A.M., and Bakers Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in March, marking the 4th consecutive month higher, and has increased in 14 of the last 15 months. The core inflation rate was up 0.2%, marking the 51st consecutive monthly increase. The annualize. The annualized inflation rate slipped to 2.4%, the lowest in 6 months as energy prices fell 3.2% from last year. Food price inflation rose to a 17-month high of 3%, led by a 108% increase in eggs that rose to a record high of $6.23/dozen. While meat prices were 4.6% higher than a year ago, marking the highest inflation rate in 30 months. Despite the lower inflation rate, the Consumer Price Index set a record high of 319.8.
USDA’s April WASDE Brief
USDA’s April WASDE leaned supportive of corn and soybeans, while neutral to bearish of wheat. Broadly, adjustments were aligned with trade ideas, but that prohibited US trade tariffs will (for now) be isolated to China implies old crop US carryover supplies will not be abundant. The outlook turns bearish of corn and soybeans mid-summer onward if yield threats are avoided, but Ag Resources (ARC’s) work suggests ag market relaxation does await clarity over N Hemisphere climate patterns. USDA projects combined US corn, wheat, and soybean carryover supplies at 2.69 Bil Bu, vs. 280 last year and vs. 3.6-4.2 Bil in the ultra-bear years of 2015-2018.The message is that stocks are large enough to support sub-$9.50 soybeans and sub-$4.40 corn. Only Mother Nature determines the intensity of US/world grain stocks building in 2025. The strategy remains to use weather-based volatility to add to forward hedges.
I concur with ARC and other analysts and traders, that it is doubtful the corn market fully relaxes until the US, Europe, and Ukraine avoid summer weather issues. Change to US supply & demand lowered exporter stocks/use to 7.3% the third lowest in the ethanol era. ARC expects exporter stocks/use to be lowered to 7.1-7.2%, and the world’s surplus this year will be tight relative to consumption. Thankfully, Brazilian winter corn weather forecasts are wet well into late April which bodes favorably for yield. A US yield of 180+ BPA allows exporter stocks/use in crop year 25/26 to jump to 10%, which correlates with a price range in Oct-Dec of $3.70-$3.90. However, trend US yields are needed – as is Brazilian production in 2025 and a crop of 125 MMT’s plus. Upside in July CBOT is pegged at $4.90-$5.10. Dec struggle above $4.60 as Midwest planting is set to begin in earnest as US temperatures warm. US farmers are expected to seed additional acres amid to US/China trade war.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Daniel Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374