Grains Report 04/11/2025

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and
how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2024-25 Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA Mar.
Corn 1,465.0 1,506 1,405-1,605 1,540
Soybeans 375.0 381 320- 413 380
Wheat 846.0 822 795- 854 819
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2024-25
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA Mar.
Corn 287.7 288.0 285.0-290.0 288.9
Soybeans 122.5 122.0 121.0-124.0 121.4
Wheat 260.7 260.8 259.8-262.0 260.1
***
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Thursday’s
2024-25 Estimate Average Range USDA Mar.
Corn 126.0 126.1 124.0-129.7 126.0
Soybeans 169.0 168.9 167.5-170.0 169.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Thursday’s
2024-25 Estimate Average Range USDA Mar.
Corn 50.0 49.3 48.0-51.0 50.0
Soybeans 49.0 48.7 47.5-49.5 49.0

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed lower again yesterday as speculators still hold short positions and as the White House made a pause in the implementation of the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. The tariffs will cost producers more for inputs and should damage upside price potential if they are enacted as stated earlier this week. USDA issued its monthly supply and demand updates yesterday and Wheat ending stocks levels were increased for the US and the world. Chart rrends are mixed in Winter Wheat marets buzt have held to a sideways to up trend in Minneapolis. Dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea regions are still the main feature but rains were seen in West Texas last week. Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy. Overall demand has been weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 521, 518, and 512 May, with resistance at 547, 553, and 563 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 553, 546, and 542 May, with resistance at 577, 583, and 598 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up. Support is at 599, 593, and 578 May, and resistance is at 611, 626, and 635 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday as resistance held on the daily charts. USDA made no changes to the US supply or demand tables in its reports yesterday. World ending stocks were increased. Prices remain cheap and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1315, 1296, and 1284 May and resistance is at 1365, 1393, and 1409 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher again yesterday as the market reacted to news that the White House has paused implementation of the new reciprocal tariffs by 90 days. USDA released its latest monthly supply and demand reports that showed no real changes to supply but higher demand than expected and lower ending stocks. It is dry in growing areas in western US, but most of the Midwest has had precipitation lately and eastern and southern areas are too wet. It’s cold now but is expected to turn warmer this weekend. Oats were higher and the trends are turning mixed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up. Support is at 477, 470, and 461 May, and resistance is at 484, 492, and 500 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 322, 317, and 312 May, and resistance is at 348, 353, and 362 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher yesterday as the market reacted to news that the reciprocal tariffs have been put on pause for 90 days. USDA released its monthly supply and demand updates yesterday with no changes to South American production estimates and slightly lower US ending stocks. It is possible for Soybeans to rally at least a little more this week. South American production looks strong, with Brazil expected to produce 170 million tons and Argentina producing 49 million tons or a little less. However, the reports of demand have remained solid for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Deferred months were higher as the weather remains too wet to the east and south and too dry to the west. It is cold now but is expected to turn warmer this weekend.
Overnight News Unknown destinations bought 121,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed Support is at 993, 970, and 956 May, and resistance is at 1035, 1051, and 1055 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up. Support is at 289.00, 280.00, and 277.00 May, and resistance is at 304.00, 307.00, and 310.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4440, 4390, and 4270 May, with resistance at 4720, 4850, and 4920 May.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher today as the outside markets were also higher. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand ideas are weaker. Chart trends are mixed. Canola was higher again yesterday and trends are up on the daily charts. Canadian goods were exempted from the new round of tariffs but still must deal with the tariffs previously imposed by the US. Canada will not be exempted by the 90 day pause.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up. Support is at 638.00, 624.00, and 609.00 May, with resistance at 673.00, 682.00, and 690.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4070, 2910, and 3790 June, with resistance at 4230, 4280, and 4340 June.

DJ Malaysia’s March Palm Oil Exports 1.01M Tons; Up 0.9%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 0.9% on month at 1.01 million metric tons in March, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the March crop data and revised numbers for February, issued by MPOB:
March February Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,387,193 1,188,029 Up 16.76%
Palm Oil Exports 1,005,547 996,460 Up 0.91%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 56,333 58,144 Dn 3.11%
Palm Oil Imports 121,886 66,784 Up 82.51%
Closing Stocks 1,562,586 1,509,525 Up 3.52%
Crude Palm Oil 779,233 826,145 Dn 5.68%
Processed Palm Oil 783,353 683,380 Up 14.63%

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1070.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
May 1022.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 1022.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 977.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 972.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 982.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1075.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
May 1027.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 1027.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 982.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 977.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 987.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1035.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1020.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,520.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 474.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4208)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 462,860 lots, or 19.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 4,100 4,236 4,100 4,186 4,096 4,175 79 263,029 114,704
Jul-25 4,121 4,260 4,121 4,217 4,126 4,200 74 94,842 97,276
Sep-25 4,151 4,264 4,146 4,228 4,142 4,211 69 83,671 80,946
Nov-25 4,105 4,206 4,101 4,169 4,097 4,161 64 10,925 33,233
Jan-26 4,115 4,209 4,109 4,171 4,101 4,164 63 5,203 4,846
Mar-26 4,129 4,215 4,117 4,174 4,111 4,177 66 5,190 2,519
Corn
Turnover: 602,615 lots, or 13.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,275 2,275 2,264 2,270 2,268 2,269 1 285,672 682,939
Jul-25 2,310 2,318 2,305 2,314 2,310 2,312 2 233,802 1,006,234
Sep-25 2,340 2,346 2,335 2,344 2,338 2,340 2 47,467 266,958
Nov-25 2,275 2,286 2,273 2,284 2,275 2,279 4 22,891 171,713
Jan-26 2,265 2,273 2,260 2,270 2,261 2,266 5 9,536 31,763
Mar-26 2,271 2,279 2,266 2,274 2,266 2,270 4 3,247 12,587
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,798,696 lots, or 85.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,896 2,936 2,882 2,912 2,919 2,907 -12 456,346 674,464
Jul-25 2,925 2,947 2,899 2,931 2,944 2,924 -20 141,426 457,045
Aug-25 3,052 3,080 3,038 3,068 3,080 3,061 -19 18,479 174,738
Sep-25 3,078 3,093 3,051 3,082 3,093 3,074 -19 1,948,453 2,368,722
Nov-25 3,114 3,117 3,078 3,106 3,114 3,100 -14 38,992 243,359
Dec-25 3,096 3,110 3,074 3,098 3,105 3,097 -8 7,495 80,491
Jan-26 3,075 3,085 3,047 3,074 3,078 3,069 -9 146,038 382,030
Mar-26 2,941 2,995 2,940 2,947 2,941 2,957 16 41,467 70,628
Palm Oil
Turnover: 944,381 lots, or 80.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-25 – – – 9,366 9,366 9,366 0 0 12
May-25 8,696 8,832 8,694 8,748 8,688 8,766 78 549,226 172,008
Jun-25 8,450 8,558 8,450 8,512 8,444 8,508 64 4,564 7,024
Jul-25 8,330 8,398 8,310 8,370 8,308 8,362 54 3,458 5,999
Aug-25 8,250 8,282 8,202 8,256 8,150 8,252 102 166 788
Sep-25 8,154 8,222 8,128 8,196 8,112 8,182 70 375,946 274,596
Oct-25 8,164 8,196 8,126 8,184 8,100 8,168 68 43 1,033
Nov-25 8,122 8,156 8,094 8,142 8,026 8,140 114 38 619
Dec-25 8,114 8,156 8,084 8,146 8,088 8,122 34 30 165
Jan-26 8,096 8,150 8,066 8,116 8,062 8,112 50 10,878 41,463
Feb-26 8,100 8,140 8,072 8,118 8,108 8,112 4 15 810
Mar-26 8,102 8,130 8,094 8,116 8,020 8,108 88 17 64
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 437,115 lots, or 33.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 7,646 7,732 7,644 7,712 7,640 7,686 46 80,409 154,135
Jul-25 7,606 7,680 7,600 7,660 7,608 7,634 26 3,564 14,774
Aug-25 7,648 7,724 7,648 7,704 7,648 7,686 38 670 5,708
Sep-25 7,622 7,698 7,614 7,680 7,616 7,652 36 332,903 553,729
Nov-25 7,646 7,716 7,642 7,696 7,646 7,676 30 141 1,902
Dec-25 7,662 7,704 7,644 7,682 7,634 7,672 38 10 174
Jan-26 7,550 7,636 7,550 7,614 7,548 7,590 42 19,206 57,277
Mar-26 7,574 7,632 7,556 7,614 7,550 7,604 54 212 633
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322