Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Core Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, CPI, CPI s.a., Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M., Fed Logan Speech at 8:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Crop Production, USSDA Supply/Demand, and WASDE at 11:00 A.M., 30-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., Monthly Budget Statement at 1:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
“Shark Tank” and investor Kevin O’Leary said Tuesday he is an advocate for placing 400% tariffs from 104% on China due to their unfair trade practices and stealing intellectual property, and most recently shipping cargoes titles to get through US Customs carrying vapes to sell in the US market that is illegal in China. After China’s retaliation on tariff, Trump wasted no time raising theirs to 104% without a 90-day pause given to other countries. This miscalculation by Beijing could be even more costly for China. “America is the No. 1 economy on earth with all the cards. We will not have that forever,” O’Leary said. “its time to squeeze Chinese heads into the wall now. We will keep you posted on updated breaking news.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly report showed that the average 30-year home mortgage rate slipped to a 6-month low of 6.61%. This was down 0.9% from the previous week, o.40%less than a year ago, and the lowest weekly average since mid-October. The decline in rates sparked a jump in mortgage and refinance demand. The Mortgage Application Index jump 20%for the week to 292.3, the highest weekly figure since July 2022. Compared to a year ago, mortgage demand was 44% higher. The Refinance Index jumped 35% for the week and was 93% higher than a year ago., while the Home Purchase Index rose 9% for the week and was 25% higher than a year ago, reaching the highest levels since January 2024. 6.7% appears to be a significant threshold for home buyers. When mortgage rates fall below the level mortgage and refinance demands tend to surge.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Test Early March High; Normal Global Grain Flows Expected Amid 90-Day Pause in US Tariffs:
CBOT corn extended its AM rally as the US’s trade war is at a pause – at least for the next 90-days – transferring its weight on China exclusively. China was not expected to secure US corn in bulk anyway, and so normal flow of corn is anticipated into mid-summer. This bodes positively for US sales amid competitive prices and projected delay in Brazil’s safrinha harvest. This in turn places more emphasis on Midwest planting dates, which are expected to be highly variable if the two-week forecasts are correct. Rising moisture in KS, NE, and SD linger in the background. USDA in its April WASDE later today is expected to hike 24/25 US exports 50+ Mil Bu. Export commitments through the end of March sit at an abnormally high 87% of its current forecast – with 22 weeks remaining in the crop year. A further tightening of US supply/demand is anticipated. Large N Hemisphere crops are needed in 2025. It’s unlikely weather patterns will be ideal in the US, Europe, and Ukraine.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
More Tariffs for China? The Corn & Ethanol Report 04/10/2025
We kickoff the day with Core Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, CPI, CPI s.a., Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M., Fed Logan Speech at 8:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Crop Production, USSDA Supply/Demand, and WASDE at 11:00 A.M., 30-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., Monthly Budget Statement at 1:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
“Shark Tank” and investor Kevin O’Leary said Tuesday he is an advocate for placing 400% tariffs from 104% on China due to their unfair trade practices and stealing intellectual property, and most recently shipping cargoes titles to get through US Customs carrying vapes to sell in the US market that is illegal in China. After China’s retaliation on tariff, Trump wasted no time raising theirs to 104% without a 90-day pause given to other countries. This miscalculation by Beijing could be even more costly for China. “America is the No. 1 economy on earth with all the cards. We will not have that forever,” O’Leary said. “its time to squeeze Chinese heads into the wall now. We will keep you posted on updated breaking news.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly report showed that the average 30-year home mortgage rate slipped to a 6-month low of 6.61%. This was down 0.9% from the previous week, o.40%less than a year ago, and the lowest weekly average since mid-October. The decline in rates sparked a jump in mortgage and refinance demand. The Mortgage Application Index jump 20%for the week to 292.3, the highest weekly figure since July 2022. Compared to a year ago, mortgage demand was 44% higher. The Refinance Index jumped 35% for the week and was 93% higher than a year ago., while the Home Purchase Index rose 9% for the week and was 25% higher than a year ago, reaching the highest levels since January 2024. 6.7% appears to be a significant threshold for home buyers. When mortgage rates fall below the level mortgage and refinance demands tend to surge.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Test Early March High; Normal Global Grain Flows Expected Amid 90-Day Pause in US Tariffs:
CBOT corn extended its AM rally as the US’s trade war is at a pause – at least for the next 90-days – transferring its weight on China exclusively. China was not expected to secure US corn in bulk anyway, and so normal flow of corn is anticipated into mid-summer. This bodes positively for US sales amid competitive prices and projected delay in Brazil’s safrinha harvest. This in turn places more emphasis on Midwest planting dates, which are expected to be highly variable if the two-week forecasts are correct. Rising moisture in KS, NE, and SD linger in the background. USDA in its April WASDE later today is expected to hike 24/25 US exports 50+ Mil Bu. Export commitments through the end of March sit at an abnormally high 87% of its current forecast – with 22 weeks remaining in the crop year. A further tightening of US supply/demand is anticipated. Large N Hemisphere crops are needed in 2025. It’s unlikely weather patterns will be ideal in the US, Europe, and Ukraine.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Daniel Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374