Grains Report 04/10/2025

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. 2024-25 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2023-2024
Corn 1,506 1,405-1,605 1,540 1,763
Soybeans 381 320-413 380 342
Wheat 822 795-854 819 696
****
World 2024-25 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2024-25
Average Range USDA March USDA 2023-24
Corn 288.0 285.0-290.0 288.9 314.0
Soybeans 122.0 121.0-124.0 121.4 112.6
Wheat 260.8 259.8-262.0 260.1 269.5
****
2024-25 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2023-24
Corn 126.1 124.0-129.7 126.0 119.0
Soybeans 168.9 167.5-170.0 169.0 153.0
2024-25 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2023-24
Corn 49.3 48.0-51.0 50.0 51.0
Soybeans 48.7 47.5-49.5 49.0 48.2

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Apr 10
For the week ended Apr 3, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 107.3 107.7 21346.9 18828.4 4236.1 1175.3
hrw 20.1 36.8 5345.2 3610.0 1262.2 367.8
srw 18.8 20.0 3148.2 4389.2 489.9 215.8
hrs 49.4 28.9 6740.9 6409.2 1220.4 416.3
white 18.9 22.1 5756.7 3916.4 1179.5 151.8
durum 0.0 0.0 356.2 503.6 84.2 23.5
corn 785.6 236.2 55019.3 44176.7 18494.6 1971.8
soybeans 172.3 0.0 46342.6 40796.9 4679.2 276.7
soymeal 276.0 11.2 11711.8 10577.1 3801.0 122.4
soyoil 20.2 0.0 945.1 87.8 248.1 9.6
upland cotton 115.1 18.9 10553.2 10971.1 3792.1 1068.0
pima cotton 2.7 0.0 385.5 279.4 100.7 1.7
sorghum 22.6 0.0 1344.3 5040.9 123.8 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 39.9 11.8 17.6 22.8
rice 34.7 0.0 2661.0 2920.4 580.5 10.1

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed higher again yesterday as speculators still hold short positions and as many countries are reported by the White House to have tried to start negotiations on the tariff rates according to the White House. The White House made a pause in the implementation of the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. The tariffs will cost producers more for inputs and should damage upside price potential. Dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea regions are still the main feature but rains were seen in West Texas last week. Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy. Overall demand has been weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 521, 518, and 512 May, with resistance at 546, 553, and 563 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 553, 546, and 542 May, with resistance at 574, 583, and 598 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up. Support is at 599, 593, and 578 May, and resistance is at 610, 626, and 635 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday as the US will negotiate on tariffs with all countries except China. The White House also announced a pause in implementation of the tariffs for 90 days. Mexico has been exempted from new tariffs but still must deal with tariffs already imposed on their goods. Prices remain cheap and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up. Support is at 1315, 1296, and 1284 May and resistance is at 1365, 1393, and 1409 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher in nearby months but lower in new crop months yesterday as the market reacted to news that the White House has paused implementation of the new reciprocal tariffs by 90 days. Many countries are asking to negotiate according to the White House. There was more talk that tariffs could damage agricultural exports. It is dry in growing areas in western US, but most of the Midwest has had precipitation lately and eastern and southern areas are too wet. It’s cold now but is expected to turn warmer this weekend. Oats were about unchanged and the trends are down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 461, 454, and 448 May, and resistance is at 477, 484, and 492 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 322, 317, and 312 May, and resistance is at 338, 346, and 353 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher yesterday as the market got news that the reciprocal tariffs have been put on pause for 90 days. The Whitee House now says that many countries are trying to negotiate on the tariffs. It is possible for Soybeans to rally at least a little more this week. South American production looks strong, with Brazil expected to produce 170 million tons and Argentina producing 49 million tons or a little less. However, the reports of demand have remained solid for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Deferred months were higher as the weather remains too wet to the east and south and too dry to the west. It is cold now but is expected to turn warmer this weekend.
Overnight News
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed Support is at 993, 970, and 956 May, and resistance is at 1020, 1025, and 1035 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up. Support is at 289.00, 280.00, and 277.00 May, and resistance is at 297.00, 301.00, and 304.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4440, 4390, and 4270 May, with resistance at 4720, 4850, and 4920 May.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher today as the outside markets were also higher. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand ideas are weaker. Chart trends are mixed. Canola was higher again yesterday and trends are up on the daily charts. Canadian goods were exempted from the new round of tariffs but still must deal with the tariffs previously imposed by the US. Canada will not be exempted by the 90 day pause.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed t up. Support is at 638.00, 624.00, and 609.00 May, with resistance at 652.00, 657.00, and 673.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4070, 2910, and 3790 June, with resistance at 4230, 4280, and 4340 June.

DJ Malaysia’s March Palm Oil Exports 1.01M Tons; Up 0.9%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 0.9% on month at 1.01 million metric tons in March, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the March crop data and revised numbers for February, issued by MPOB:
March February Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,387,193 1,188,029 Up 16.76%
Palm Oil Exports 1,005,547 996,460 Up 0.91%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 56,333 58,144 Dn 3.11%
Palm Oil Imports 121,886 66,784 Up 82.51%
Closing Stocks 1,562,586 1,509,525 Up 3.52%
Crude Palm Oil 779,233 826,145 Dn 5.68%
Processed Palm Oil 783,353 683,380 Up 14.63%

Midwest Weather Forecast Light precipitation. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1065.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 1020.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1020.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 965.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 960.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 970.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1070.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 1025.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1025.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 970.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 965.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 975.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1040.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1025.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,550.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 476.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4672)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 366,601 lots, or 15.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 4,088 4,124 4,060 4,107 4,068 4,096 28 200,267 112,558
Jul-25 4,117 4,152 4,093 4,134 4,100 4,126 26 87,039 91,600
Sep-25 4,145 4,172 4,107 4,148 4,123 4,142 19 66,642 75,705
Nov-25 4,090 4,125 4,069 4,102 4,079 4,097 18 6,404 32,984
Jan-26 4,095 4,131 4,073 4,111 4,085 4,101 16 3,404 5,071
Mar-26 4,102 4,141 4,084 4,119 4,093 4,111 18 2,845 2,311
Corn
Turnover: 744,359 lots, or 17.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,272 2,278 2,259 2,273 2,276 2,268 -8 351,583 716,994
Jul-25 2,315 2,319 2,301 2,316 2,318 2,310 -8 266,755 970,834
Sep-25 2,339 2,346 2,329 2,343 2,342 2,338 -4 74,027 259,742
Nov-25 2,298 2,298 2,268 2,280 2,277 2,275 -2 37,683 168,999
Jan-26 2,260 2,267 2,252 2,266 2,260 2,261 1 10,872 28,954
Mar-26 2,266 2,272 2,258 2,271 2,266 2,266 0 3,439 11,796
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,806,982 lots, or 11.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,955 2,963 2,888 2,896 2,957 2,919 -38 604,887 708,455
Jul-25 2,980 2,989 2,911 2,921 2,979 2,944 -35 210,718 453,466
Aug-25 3,130 3,130 3,042 3,060 3,122 3,080 -42 31,303 173,780
Sep-25 3,141 3,146 3,053 3,074 3,133 3,093 -40 2,599,623 2,396,848
Nov-25 3,209 3,209 3,081 3,099 3,157 3,114 -43 82,342 239,126
Dec-25 3,134 3,143 3,077 3,093 3,139 3,105 -34 9,315 80,014
Jan-26 3,107 3,117 3,051 3,066 3,105 3,078 -27 231,228 357,713
Mar-26 2,960 2,966 2,912 2,942 2,958 2,941 -17 37,566 64,747
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,089,550 lots, or 92.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-25 – – – 9,366 9,366 9,366 0 0 12
May-25 8,542 8,810 8,514 8,754 8,636 8,688 52 641,113 201,398
Jun-25 8,282 8,548 8,254 8,500 8,358 8,444 86 7,390 6,804
Jul-25 8,170 8,404 8,102 8,358 8,208 8,308 100 4,432 5,844
Aug-25 8,000 8,310 8,000 8,250 8,088 8,150 62 220 809
Sep-25 7,900 8,226 7,896 8,186 8,016 8,112 96 420,364 261,056
Oct-25 7,908 8,180 7,908 8,166 7,986 8,100 114 82 1,038
Nov-25 7,892 8,156 7,888 8,148 7,934 8,026 92 42 611
Dec-25 7,886 8,170 7,886 8,122 7,960 8,088 128 43 175
Jan-26 7,894 8,174 7,840 8,116 7,940 8,062 122 15,838 40,542
Feb-26 8,070 8,146 8,070 8,104 7,936 8,108 172 12 812
Mar-26 7,936 8,140 7,934 8,102 7,946 8,020 74 14 64
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 563,196 lots, or 42.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 7,590 7,728 7,578 7,674 7,612 7,640 28 119,297 168,167
Jul-25 7,530 7,670 7,530 7,634 7,562 7,608 46 4,311 14,336
Aug-25 7,584 7,716 7,584 7,674 7,604 7,648 44 817 5,584
Sep-25 7,560 7,680 7,544 7,646 7,582 7,616 34 413,180 555,542
Nov-25 7,580 7,700 7,576 7,674 7,606 7,646 40 195 1,970
Dec-25 7,564 7,682 7,564 7,654 7,580 7,634 54 31 175
Jan-26 7,470 7,602 7,460 7,584 7,500 7,548 48 25,221 54,842
Mar-26 7,504 7,604 7,484 7,582 7,510 7,550 40 144 515
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322